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Yenan?Wu Ping-an?ZhongEmail authorView authors OrcID profile Bin?Xu Feilin?Zhu Jisi?Fu 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2018,133(1-2):191-204
Using climate models with high performance to predict the future climate changes can increase the reliability of results. In this paper, six kinds of global climate models that selected from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) under Representative Concentration Path (RCP) 4.5 scenarios were compared to the measured data during baseline period (1960–2000) and evaluate the simulation performance on precipitation. Since the results of single climate models are often biased and highly uncertain, we examine the back propagation (BP) neural network and arithmetic mean method in assembling the precipitation of multi models. The delta method was used to calibrate the result of single model and multimodel ensembles by arithmetic mean method (MME-AM) during the validation period (2001–2010) and the predicting period (2011–2100). We then use the single models and multimodel ensembles to predict the future precipitation process and spatial distribution. The result shows that BNU-ESM model has the highest simulation effect among all the single models. The multimodel assembled by BP neural network (MME-BP) has a good simulation performance on the annual average precipitation process and the deterministic coefficient during the validation period is 0.814. The simulation capability on spatial distribution of precipitation is: calibrated MME-AM > MME-BP > calibrated BNU-ESM. The future precipitation predicted by all models tends to increase as the time period increases. The order of average increase amplitude of each season is: winter > spring > summer > autumn. These findings can provide useful information for decision makers to make climate-related disaster mitigation plans. 相似文献
94.
As an important innovation flow, venture capital has been examined in urban network research. However, the segmentation of capital categories and the cross-scale connection of capital remain scarcely analyzed. This study focuses on the structure and industry differentiation of venture capital flows in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area(GBA) and its cross-scale network characteristics. Based on a venture capital database covering capital amount, investment subject address information,... 相似文献
95.
Xiao Yang Zhao Chang Sun Yue Wang Shun Wu Huanran Chen Hui Liu Hanlong 《Acta Geotechnica》2021,16(5):1391-1400
Acta Geotechnica - One-dimensional compression tests on quartz sands treated by microbially induced carbonate precipitation (MICP) were carried out to evaluate the effects of gradation and calcium... 相似文献
96.
早白垩世晚期江西贵溪盆地的控盆断裂活动加强,在盆地边缘的不同地带及盆地中心发育有不同的沉积体系,野外露头岩相特征和剖面的研究表明,贵溪盆地罗塘群主要发育有冲积扇体系、扇三角洲体系、辫状河三角洲体系、湖泊沉积体系及辫状河沉积体系,沉积体系特征主要受控于盆缘断裂活动,不同的沉积体系出现在盆地演化的不同阶段,并由不同的岩相组成.沉积体系的特征、分布及组合型式反映了陆相断陷红盆沉积相带窄、横向及纵向上相变快的特点. 相似文献
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对GPS接收机测试评估的探讨 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:1
随着GPS的广泛应用和GPS产业的迅速发展,GPS厂家众多,生产的接收机类型更是数以百计,整个GPS接收机市场可以说是鱼目混珠,识别困难;大多数购买者只能听信厂家的技术指标,如何对GPS接收机的性能进行测试评估的意义显得很重要,本文基于此对GPS接收机测试评估展开探讨和研究。 相似文献
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Ching-Yi Tsai Keh-Chyuan Tsai Chao-Hsien Li Chung-Che Wu Ker-Chun Lin Sheng-Jhih Jhuang 《地震工程与结构动力学》2020,49(13):1344-1362
Steel box columns are widely used in steel building structures in Taiwan due to their dual strong axes. To transfer the beam-end moment to the column, diaphragm plates of the same thickness and elevations as the beam flanges are usually welded inside the box column. The electro-slag welding (ESW) process is widely used to connect the diaphragms to the column flanges in Taiwan because of its convenience and efficiency. However, ESW may increase the hardness of the welds and heat-affected zones (HAZs), while reducing the Charpy-V notch strength in the HAZ. This situation can cause premature fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange welds before a large plastic rotation is developed in the beam-to-box column joints. To quantify the critical eccentricity and the effectiveness of fracture prediction, this study uses fracture prediction models and finite element model (FEM) analysis to correlate the test results. In this study, two beam-to-box column connection subassembly tests are conducted with different loading protocols and ESW chamber shapes. To implement a fracture prediction model, the material parameters are established from circumferential notched tensile tests and FEM analysis. Test results indicate that the fracture instances can be predicted on the basis of the cumulative plastic deformation in the HAZs. Analytical results indicate that fracture instances and locations are sensitive to the relative locations of the ESW joints and beam flange. Tests also confirm that the possible fracture of the diaphragm-to-column flange joints can be mitigated by enlarging the chamber of the ESW joint. 相似文献