Feedback Mechanisms For The Atmosphere And Ocean Surface

Two kinds of feedback mechanisms in the coupling process between the atmosphere and ocean surface are identified in this paper. One is a negative feedback mechanism, which is effective in the dynamic interaction processes through momentum flux exchange. In this mechanism,the ocean extracts momentum from the atmosphere as a forcing field to generate waves, which decelerates atmospheric motions, lessening the intensity of synoptic systems. The second is a positive feedback mechanism, which is effective in the thermal interaction processes through heat flux exchange. This is a mechanism that is effective in the transport of sensible and latent heat fluxes to the atmosphere from the underlyingocean surface. As a result, the atmosphere obtains energy from the ocean, which intensifies atmospheric motions. For storm conditions typical of North Atlantic mid-latitudes, we consider these thermal and dynamical nteractions, the dominance of one over the other, and related implications for storm intensification.     

Stratigraphy of the Toba Tuffs and the evolution of the Toba Caldera Complex,Sumatra, Indonesia

During the past 1.2 m.y., a magma chamber of batholithic proportions has developed under the 100 by 30 km Toba Caldera Complex. Four separate eruptions have occurred from vents within the present collapse structure, which formed from eruption of the 2800 km³ Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT) at 74 ka. Eruption of the three older Toba Tuffs alternated from calderas situated in northern and southern portions of the present caldera. The northern caldera apparently developed upon a large andesitic stratovolcano. The calderas associated with the three older tuffs are obscured by caldera collapse and resurgence resulting from eruption of the YTT. Samosir Island and the Uluan Block are two sides of a single resurgent dome that has resurged since eruption of the YTT. Samosir Island is composed of thick YTT caldera fill, whereas the Uluan Block consists mainly of the Oldest Toba Tuff (OTT). In the past 74000 years lava domes have been extruded on Samosir Island and along the caldera's western ring fracture. This part of the ring fracture is the site of the only current activity at Toba: updoming and fumarolic activity. The Toba eruptions document the growth of the laterally continuous magma body which eventually erupted the YTT. Repose periods between the four Toba Tuffs range between 0.34 and 0.43 m.y. and give insights into pluton emplacement and magmatic evolution at Toba.     

Computing Earthquake Probabilities on Global Scales

Large devastating events in systems such as earthquakes, typhoons, market crashes, electricity grid blackouts, floods, droughts, wars and conflicts, and landslides can be unexpected and devastating. Events in many of these systems display frequency-size statistics that are power laws. Previously, we presented a new method for calculating probabilities for large events in systems such as these. This method counts the number of small events since the last large event and then converts this count into a probability by using a Weibull probability law. We applied this method to the calculation of large earthquake probabilities in California-Nevada, USA. In that study, we considered a fixed geographic region and assumed that all earthquakes within that region, large magnitudes as well as small, were perfectly correlated. In the present article, we extend this model to systems in which the events have a finite correlation length. We modify our previous results by employing the correlation function for near mean field systems having long-range interactions, an example of which is earthquakes and elastic interactions. We then construct an application of the method and show examples of computed earthquake probabilities.     

Estimating hypocentral uncertainties for marine microearthquake surveys: A comparison of the generalized inverse and grid search methods

For microearthquake surveys conducted with small networks in regions where the seismic velocity structure has large vertical gradients, the formal errors accompanying hypocentral solutions obtained by a generalized inverse method may be misleading since they do not incorporate the effects of nonlinearity in travel times. An alternative method for estimating uncertainties involves calculating travel time residuals over a regular grid and using the F statistic to contour confidence volumes. We present a statistical expression for the latter confidence limits that is applicable when an independent estimate of arrival time errors is available from observations accumulated for a number of earthquakes. Synthetic experiments comparing the results of the grid search and generalized inverse methods show that in cases where solutions are obtained either without S wave information or for epicenters which lie well outside the network, the effects of nonlinearity on the shape of the confidence regions may be significant. However, for the well-observed events both methods yield comparable confidence volumes in good agreement with the distribution of hypocenters obtained from repeated locations incorporating random errors. The generalized inverse method has the advantage that it requires fewer calculations, so the examination of systematic errors in hypocentral parameters produced by uncertainties in the seismic velocity structure can be studied in a more computationally efficient manner. Except in the cases of poorly resolved earthquakes, the effects of nonlinearity on uncertainties in hypocentral parameters can be observed by the application of the F statistic to the variation of the generalized inverse travel time residuals with focal depth.     

Experimental transport of Si,Al and Mg in hydrothermal solutions: an application to vein mineralization during high-pressure,low-temperature metamorphism in the French Alps

A study of hydrothermal vein mineralization in meta-argillites subjected to high-pressure, low-temperature metamorphism reveals that ferromagnesian (e.g., chlorite) and pure aluminosilicate (e.g., pyrophyllite) mineralization can be correlated with regimes of increasing and decreasing temperature, respectively. An experimental study of the transport of silica, aluminum and magnesium in hydrothermal solutions has been undertaken to simulate variations in the physical conditions during metamorphism and the accompanying mass transport in a closed system. Thermodynamic and kinetic analysis of the experimental results indicates that local equilibrium among aqueous and mineral phases controls the distribution and composition of hydrothermal vein mineralization and that vein mineralogy can be used to infer the sense of variation of pressure and temperature during metamorphism.     

Climatic forcing before,during, and after the 8.2 Kyr B.P. global cooling event

This paper attempts at full characterization of the unique global 8.2 Kyr B.P. cooling event. Significant atmospheric cooling started during 9.5–8.5 Kyr B.P. when the Sun was extremely quiet during three periods of ∼ 50–100 years. The flood of melt water in the N. Atlantic from glacial lakes during the demise of the Laurentide ice sheet, starting at ∼ 8.5 Kyr B.P., adds to the atmospheric cooling. Climatic forcing events occurred at 8.5 Kyr B.P., at 8.2 Kyr B.P. and finally at 8.06 Kyr B.P., leading to concurrent increases or decreases in the atmospheric Δ¹⁴C levels, completely consistent with the climatic forcing proposed here.     

Benthic studies in upper Buzzards Bay,Massachusetts: 2011/12 as compared to 1955

Precise biodiversity mapping that can be compared over decades would greatly inform the discussion of climate change impacts on species richness and shifts in dominant benthic species. Buzzards Bay, Massachusetts, USA, has a long history of field studies documenting benthic community structure. This bioassessment compares 1955 benthic infaunal sampling results with 2011/2012 samples to determine whether there has been a compositional change. I also compared structural components including grain size and near‐bottom temperatures. In addition, benthic temperature rise and fall was logged at 15‐min intervals from May to October of consecutive years. There was an observed difference in the benthic compositional structure, substrate and temperature between the 1955 and 2011/2012 station conditions. The 1955 identification of Buzzards Bay as being nutrient poor and having a reported 20.5 °C benthic temperature maximum has changed. Coastal development has brought increased nutrient inputs, and the 2012 bottom temperature maximum was at least 4 °C greater. These conditions contribute to shifts in benthic species dominance, and the substrate itself has been transformed to shell reefs at the stations where the gastropod Crepidula fornicata proliferated.