On the use of IPCC-class models to assess the impact of climate on Living Marine Resources

The study of climate impacts on Living Marine Resources (LMRs) has increased rapidly in recent years with the availability of climate model simulations contributed to the assessment reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Collaboration between climate and LMR scientists and shared understanding of critical challenges for such applications are essential for developing robust projections of climate impacts on LMRs. This paper assesses present approaches for generating projections of climate impacts on LMRs using IPCC-class climate models, recommends practices that should be followed for these applications, and identifies priority developments that could improve current projections. Understanding of the climate system and its representation within climate models has progressed to a point where many climate model outputs can now be used effectively to make LMR projections. However, uncertainty in climate model projections (particularly biases and inter-model spread at regional to local scales), coarse climate model resolution, and the uncertainty and potential complexity of the mechanisms underlying the response of LMRs to climate limit the robustness and precision of LMR projections. A variety of techniques including the analysis of multi-model ensembles, bias corrections, and statistical and dynamical downscaling can ameliorate some limitations, though the assumptions underlying these approaches and the sensitivity of results to their application must be assessed for each application. Developments in LMR science that could improve current projections of climate impacts on LMRs include improved understanding of the multi-scale mechanisms that link climate and LMRs and better representations of these mechanisms within more holistic LMR models. These developments require a strong baseline of field and laboratory observations including long time series and measurements over the broad range of spatial and temporal scales over which LMRs and climate interact. Priority developments for IPCC-class climate models include improved model accuracy (particularly at regional and local scales), inter-annual to decadal-scale predictions, and the continued development of earth system models capable of simulating the evolution of both the physical climate system and biosphere. Efforts to address these issues should occur in parallel and be informed by the continued application of existing climate and LMR models.     

Franz Xaver Michels

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Lithologische Studien und zyklische Sedimentation in der helvetischen Zone der Schweizeralpen

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Do CRISTA Experiment/Campaign Data Represent a Typical Situation or Not?

Data from four A3 radio wave circuits in central Europe are used to analyse the representativeness of the ionization and gravity wave activity pattern in the lower ionosphere (85 – 100 km) in the CRISTA experiment interval (3 – 12 November 1994) for the given conditions. It has been found that the CRISTA experiment interval was run under conditions, which are highly representative both of October – November 1994 and autumn, low-moderate solar activity, the descending phase of solar cycle conditions, i.e. CRISTA measurements may be considered to provide values identical with, or close to climatological values (at least for central Europe, h = 85 – 100 km).     

Buchbesprechungen

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Vibration of hydraulic vessels

Summary The present paper is a continuation of a previous study by the author(1), dealing with expansion waves in fluids. Relating to hydro-dynamic effects due to harmonic vibrations, with special reference to earthquakes, it contains solutions for some rigid-walled vessels of geometrically determined shape. A salient feature of the problem is that the motion is assumed discontinuous in the sense that it starts from the initial condition of rest.     

Synchronous pattern of moisture availability on the southern Tibetan Plateau since 17.5 cal. ka BP – the Tangra Yumco lake sediment record

A possible asynchronicity of the spatial and temporal moisture availability on the Tibetan Plateau has been a controversial subject of discussion in recent years. Here we present the first attempt to systematically investigate possible spatial and temporal variations in moisture availability by examining two lakes, Tangra Yumco and Nam Co, on an east–west transect on the southern Tibetan Plateau using identical proxies for palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. In this study, an independent record from Tangra Yumco was analysed applying a multi‐proxy approach to reconstruct variations in moisture availability since the Lateglacial. Results were subsequently compared with previously published records from Nam Co and additional records from Tso Moriri (northwestern Himalaya) and Naleng Co (southeastern Tibetan Plateau). Our results show that Tangra Yumco was at least partially ice covered prior to 17.1 cal. ka BP. A temperature rise after 17.1 cal. ka BP probably resulted in thawing of the permafrost. At 16.0 cal. ka BP moisture availability increased, representing an initial monsoonal intensification. Warmer conditions between 13.0 and 12.4 cal. ka BP and cooler conditions between 12.4 cal. ka BP and the onset of the Holocene reflect the Bølling‐Allerød and Younger Dryas. At the onset of the Holocene moisture availability rapidly increased, with moisture highest prior to 8.5 cal. ka BP when temperatures were also highest. After 8.5 cal. ka BP the moisture availability gradually decreased and showed only minor amplitude variations. These findings are consistent with the records from large lakes like Nam Co, Tso Moriri, and Naleng Co, revealing a synchronous pattern of moisture availability on the southern Tibetan Plateau.     

Efficient satellite orbit modelling using pseudo-stochastic parameters

If the force field acting on an artificial Earth satellite is not known a priori with sufficient accuracy to represent its observations on their accuracy level, one may introduce so-called pseudo-stochastic parameters into an orbit determination process, e.g. instantaneous velocity changes at user-defined epochs or piecewise constant accelerations in user-defined adjacent time subintervals or piecewise linear and continuous accelerations in adjacent time subintervals. The procedures, based on standard least-squares, associated with such parameterizations are well established, but they become inefficient (slow) if the number of pseudo-stochastic parameters becomes large. We develop two efficient methods to solve the orbit determination problem in the presence of pseudo-stochastic parameters. The results of the methods are identical to those obtained with conventional least-squares algorithms. The first efficient algorithm also provides the full variance–covariance matrix; the second, even more efficient algorithm, only parts of it.