一种多时间尺度SVM局部短时临近降雨预测方法

近年来支持向量机(support vector machine,SVM)在气象领域得到了广泛应用,在该类应用中单一建模是目前普遍采用的一种思路,单一建模方法寻找的是大而泛的预测模型,预测的目标以面降雨为主。本研究针对每个气象站点进行单独动态建模,建模方法为多时间尺度SVM,探索建立一种动态SVM短时临近降水预测模型,充分考虑不同站点、不同时刻的气象要素差异,初步解决了单一建模过于注重整体规律、建立固定的整体预测函数模型而忽略不同站点、不同时刻局部气象变化的不足,并尝试提高短时临近降水预报的准确率。初步实现了地理空间上更高密度、更精细化的降雨预测,时间分辨率为1 h,TS评分始终保持在较高的水平,对1 h预测的TS评分平均可达40%以上,部分站点接近50%,且模型预测准确率具有一定的稳定性和参考价值。     

丘陵区无人机影像基础信息提取方法初探

无人机影像具有高空间分辨率的特性,在体现地物细节上有着多光谱数据所不具有的优势,同时也使得常规的多光谱影像的信息提取方法并不适用于无人机影像,针对这一问题,面向对象法被应用于高分辨率影像信息提取中;与常规方法相比,面向对象法不仅仅是利用影像的光谱信息,也考虑了影像的纹理、颜色、形状指数等多种要素,大大地提高了高分辨率影像的信息提取精度。但面向对象法涉及要素多,需要对研究区有一定的了解,同时需要建立相应的分类规则。该文分别利用基于光谱分析的阈值法及基于对象的面向对象法,对居民区、丘陵区、水体及混合区进行基础地类信息提取,并从时间及精度2个角度进行对比分析。     

Magnitude and forming factors of mass elevation effect on Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Mass elevation effect(MEE) refers to the thermal effect of huge mountains or plateaus, which causes the tendency for temperature-related montane landscape limits to occur at higher elevations in the inner massifs than on their outer margins. MEE has been widely identified in all large mountains, but how it could be measured and what its main forming-factors are still remain open. This paper, supposing that the local mountain base elevation(MBE) is the main factor of MEE, takes the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) as the study area, defines MEE as the temperature difference(ΔT) between the inner and outer parts of mountain massifs, identifies the main forming factors, and analyzes their contributions to MEE. A total of 73 mountain bases were identified, ranging from 708 m to 5081 m and increasing from the edges to the central parts of the plateau. Climate data(1981–2010) from 134 meteorological stations were used to acquire ΔT by comparing near-surface air temperature on the main plateau with the free-air temperature at the same altitude and similar latitude outside of the plateau. The ΔT for the warmest month is averagely 6.15℃, over 12℃ at Lhatse and Baxoi. A multivariate linear regression model was developed to simulate MEE based on three variables(latitude, annual mean precipitation and MBE), which are all significantly correlated to ΔT. The model could explain 67.3% of MEE variation, and the contribution rates of three independent variables to MEE are 35.29%, 22.69% and 42.02%, respectively. This confirms that MBE is the main factor of MEE. The intensive MEE of the QTP pushes the 10℃ isotherm of the warmest month mean temperature 1300–2000 m higher in the main plateau than in the outer regions, leading the occurrence of the highest timberline(4900 m) and the highest snowline(6200 m) of the Northern Hemisphere in the southeast and southwest of the plateau, respectively.     

马达加斯加索菲亚省BINARA地区铬铁矿遥感找矿预测

马达加斯加北部地区地广人稀、交通不便、植被稀疏、矿产资源丰富,利用遥感技术提取矿化蚀变信息具有独特的优势和较好的效果。为了对BINARA地区铬铁矿进行遥感找矿预测,文章首先利用Landsat 8遥感数据2、4、5、6波段进行主成分分析提取研究区内基性-超基性岩信息;然后基于实测高光谱数据,采用偏最小二乘回归法建立Fe含量定量反演模型,并利用该模型对Hyperion高光谱遥感数据进行计算,提取研究区内Fe含量异常信息;最后根据综合遥感异常信息以及野外调查验证结果,确定研究区内的Fe含量为一级异常的区域作为预测区。     

互联网众源照片的三维重建定位技术

随着电子产品的普及和互联网发展,人们习惯性地将照片上传到主流图片分享网站和社交媒体。这些照片很多都没有地理坐标或者仅有模糊的位置信息。如果互联网上任意来源的电子照片能被恢复出真实地理位置,它们将可以应用在城市建设、城市景观分析和犯罪追踪等很多方面。本文提出了一种互联网众筹照片的三维重建定位技术,该技术将结构化组织的街景数据作为参考数据集,使用三步走策略：图像检索粗定位、图像匹配细筛选和三维重建精定位,来给不明来源的众筹照片附上精确的地理标签。本文通过摄影测量原理恢复待查询照片周围的三维空间信息,较之前Zamir和Shah的方法,定位精度中值从256.7 m提升到69.0 m,平均值从350.4 m提升到206.0 m,在50 m精度要求下的照片数量占比从17.2%提升到43.2%。另一个发现是在重建误差成因方面,待查询照片的相机距离主拍摄目标越近,定位总误差越小。本文所提出的照片定位技术提供了灵活的参数,使其应用范围不仅仅局限于小区域,也可以扩大至城市、国家尺度。     

Large-scale estimates of gross primary production on the Qinghai-Tibet plateau based on remote sensing data

Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) is an important variable for the carbon cycle on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). Based on the measurements from 12 eddy covariance flux sites, we validated a light use efficiency model (i.e. EC-LUE) to evaluate the spatial-temporal patterns of GPP and the effect of environmental variables on QTP. In general, EC-LUE model performed well in predicting GPP at different time scale over QTP. Annual GPP over the entire QTP ranged from 575 to 703 Tg C, and showed a significantly increasing trend from 1982 to 2013. However, there were large spatial heterogeneities in long-term trends of GPP. Throughout the entire QTP, air temperature increase had a greater influence than solar radiation and precipitation (PREC) changes on productivity. Moreover, our results highlight the large uncertainties of previous GPP estimates due to insufficient parameterization and validations. When compared with GPP estimates of the EC-LUE model, most Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) GPP products overestimate the magnitude and increasing trends of regional GPP, which potentially impact the feedback of ecosystems to regional climate changes.     

Multi-objective Emergency Scheduling for Geological Disasters

Natural Hazards - Because of the specific time and distance constraints, emergency management departments usually build multiple depots (resource centers) to serve the widely dispersed customers...     

热活化过硫酸盐降解氧氟沙星特性及响应面优化

为了探究热活化过硫酸盐（PS）技术对水中氧氟沙星（OFX）的氧化降解作用,考察了反应温度、体系的初始pH、PS的初始浓度、OFX的初始浓度对OFX降解效果的影响;并在单因素实验的基础上,选取反应时间、体系的初始pH、PS的初始浓度和OFX的初始浓度4个因素进行了响应面优化实验。结果表明：最佳降解条件为,反应温度60℃、PS初始浓度4.0 mmol/L、pH=4.7、OFX初始浓度0.03 mmol/L、反应时间60 min,此时OFX的降解率为81.29%;4个因素对热活化PS降解OFX均有影响,其影响显著性从大到小为反应时间、OFX的初始浓度、PS的初始浓度、初始pH。利用响应曲面法模拟出反应体系的最佳条件,经实验验证,OFX降解率为93.78%,与预测最佳结果95.00%基本相符,表明模型可靠有效。     

吕泗渔场两种石首鱼科鱼类营养生态学特征：来自稳定同位素的证据

本研究使用稳定同位素方法,分析及比较了吕泗渔场两种重要石首鱼科鱼类(小黄鱼Larimichthys polyactis、棘头梅童鱼Collichthys lucidus)的营养生态学特征。结果表明,不同体长组间小黄鱼和棘头梅童鱼的稳定碳同位素差异不显著(p0.05),而稳定氮同位素差异显著(p 0.05)。小黄鱼的营养级要显著高于棘头梅童鱼(p 0.05)。聚类分析的结果可将小黄鱼的体长组分成两大组,包括 140～190、 130～140、 120～130、 80～90 mm一组和剩余的体长组;棘头梅童鱼的体长组可分为140～190、130～140 mm一组和剩余体长组。Iso Source模型的结果显示,浮游植物对小黄鱼、棘头梅童鱼的碳源贡献比例为43.38%和36.38%;底质有机物(Sedimental Organic Matter,SOM)对小黄鱼、棘头梅童鱼的碳源贡献比例为40.66%和43.70%。因此判定小黄鱼和棘头梅童鱼的潜在碳源主要是浮游植物和SOM。本研究还发现小黄鱼食性转变的体长临界点为80 mm,而棘头梅童鱼为110 mm,反映了棘头梅童鱼在生活史中转变食性行为的发生时间可能比小黄鱼晚。     

加热和水汽对两例高原低涡影响的数值试验

利用卫星黑体亮度温度(TBB)资料、NCEP 1°×1°再分析资料以及中尺度非静力平衡模式MM5,对2005年7月28～29日和2009年7月29～31日两次高原低涡过程进行了控制试验以及绝热、无地表感热、地表感热加倍、无蒸发效应、无凝结潜热、无水汽等六组敏感性试验,着重讨论了2005年7月28～29日高原低涡发生、发...