The impact of climate change on runoff in the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin in the Tibetan Plateau

The Tibetan Plateau (TP) is the “water tower of Asia” and it plays a key role on both hydrology and climate for southern and eastern Asia. It is critical to explore the impact of climate change on runoff for better water resources management in the TP. However, few studies pay attention to the runoff response to climate change in large river systems on the TP, especially in data-sparse upstream area. To complement the current body of work, this study uses two rainfall-runoff models (SIMHYD and GR4J) to simulate the monthly and annual runoff in the upstream catchments of the Yarlung Tsangpo River basin (YTR) under historical (1962–2002) and future (2046–2065 A1B scenario) climate conditions. The future climate series are downscaled from a global climate model (MIROC3.2_hires) by a high resolution regional climate model (RegCM3). The two rainfall-runoff models successfully simulate the historical runoff for the eight catchments in the YTR basin, with median monthly runoff Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency of 0.86 for SIMHYD and 0.83 for GR4J. The mean annual future temperature in eight catchments show significant increase with the median of +3.8 °C. However, the mean annual future precipitation shows decrease with the median of ?5.8 % except in Lhatse (+2.0 %). The two models show similar modeling results that the mean annual future runoff in most of catchments (seven in eight) shows decrease with the median of ?13.9 % from SIMHYD and ?15.2 % from GR4J. The results achieved in this study are not only helpful for local water resources management, but also for future water utilization planning in the lower reaches region of the Brahmaputra.     

The physical structures of snow and sea ice in the Arctic section of 150°-180°W during the summer of 2010

The physical structures of snow and sea ice in the Arctic section of 150°-180°W were observed on the basis of snow-pit, ice-core, and drill-hole measurements from late July to late August 2010. Almost all the investigated floes were first-year ice, except for one located north of Alaska, which was probably multi-year ice transported from north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during early summer. The snow covers over all the investigated floes were in the melting phase, with temperatures approaching 0℃ and densities of 295-398 kg/m3 . The snow covers can be divided into two to five layers of different textures, with most cases having a top layer of fresh snow, a round-grain layer in the middle, and slush and/or thin icing layers at the bottom. The first-year sea ice contained about 7%-17% granular ice at the top. There was no granular ice in the lower layers. The interior melting and desalination of sea ice introduced strong stratifications of temperature, salinity, density, and gas and brine volume fractions. The sea ice temperature exhibited linear cooling with depth, while the salinity and the density increased linearly with normalized depth from 0.2 to 0.9 and from 0 to 0.65, respectively. The top layer, especially the freeboard layer, had the lowest salinity and density, and consequently the largest gas content and the smallest brine content. Both the salinity and density in the ice basal layer were highly scattered due to large differences in ice porosity among the samples. The bulk average sea ice temperature, salinity, density, and gas and brine volume fractions were-0.8℃, 1.8, 837 kg/m3 , 9.3% and 10.4%, respectively. The snow cover, sea ice bottom, and sea ice interior show evidences of melting during mid-August in the investigated floe located at about 87°N, 175°W.     

Heavy metal pollution in sediments of a typical mariculture zone in South China

The heavy metal inventory and the ecological risk of the estuarine sediments in Hailing Bay, an important maricultural zone along the southern coast of China, were investigated. Results show that the surface sediments were mainly polluted by As (2.17-20.34 mg/kg), Ni (1.37-42.50mg/kg), Cu (1.21-58.84 mg/kg) and Zn (11.69-219.22 mg/kg). Furthermore, the aquafarming zone was significantly more polluted than the non-aquafarming zone, and cluster analysis suggested additional sources of heavy metal input in the aquafarming zone. As, Cr, Cu, Ni, Pb and Zn were mainly present in the non-bioavailable residual form in the surface sediments, whereas Cd was predominantly in the highly mobile acid soluble and reducible fractions. The ecological risk of the polluted sediments stemmed mainly from Cd, and from As, Cu and Pb to less degrees. The highest potential risks occurred near the aquaculture base, indicating the need to control heavy metal inputs from aquafarming activities.     

巴丹吉林沙漠季节冻土特征

通过巴丹吉林沙漠腹地连续的地温观测和2014年1月的专题考察,发现巴丹吉林沙漠属于季节冻土区,年冻结时间长达4个月.沙漠内部的局地地形和湖泊分布是影响季节冻土分布差异的重要因素.迎风坡和背风坡冻土冻结深度显著大于丘间地冻结深度,湖泊的存在使湖泊周边地区最大冻结深度显著变浅.通过沙漠及其周边地区地温、气温、地气温差的分析,结合我们在巴丹吉林沙漠外围发现的末次冰期砂楔群,表明我国北方沙漠在末次冰期属于不连续的多年冻土区.     

自由设站起算点可用性的两步判断法研究

目前在地铁隧道结构变形监测中通常采用自由设站极坐标的测量方式,起算点准确是保证监测结果有效性的关键。地铁隧道监测自由设站起算点数量有限,当多点存在变动时通常难以准确判定各点的可用性。本文针对自由设站已知起算点的可用性问题,采用坐标系转换求解各已知点的位移分量完成可用性判断。重点关注坐标系转换关系的求解,提出了两步法的求解思路：采用RANSAC算法计算初值,然后进行迭代权估计计算得到最终结果。最后通过现场实测和模拟测试的方式验证了该算法的探测能力。     

山东胶东矿集区中生代构造事件与金矿成矿作用

中生代胶东地区有2次重要的碰撞造山事件,印支造山作用主要表现为扬子板块向华北板块俯冲,形成苏鲁高压—超高压变质带,同造山花岗岩及后造山高碱正长岩;燕山造山作用的大陆动力学环境起源于中亚-特提斯构造域向滨太平洋构造域转化和太平洋板块的俯冲,在胶东地区表现为3幕4期构造岩浆事件并以3次造山和3次伸展为特征。胶东地区中生代构造岩浆沉积成矿事件序列的时空演化也受控于这一地质作用过程,尤其是侏罗纪至白垩纪这一阶段,是胶东地区构造活动、岩浆侵入、地层沉积、火山喷发和成矿作用爆发时期,是挤压、伸展交互转化时期。该文基于对中生代构造事件的研究,厘定了构造与金矿成矿作用在空间上和时间上的高度耦合性。研究发现胶东地区在侏罗纪至白垩纪一阶段构造活动由早到晚经历了4期6阶段挤压伸展过程,第一期近S—N向挤压及NW—SE向挤压,第二期早阶段NE—SW向挤压晚阶段NE—SW向引张,第三期NW向引张,第四期近E—W向挤压及近S—N向引张,与构造—热事件相一致;在金矿成矿作用方面,表现为3期金矿成矿作用,对应于由挤压向伸展转变阶段的成矿作用过程,即第一幕伸展后的早期金矿成矿作用、第二幕伸展后的金矿主成矿期和第三幕伸展后的叠加金矿成矿作用。这种挤压—伸展构造活动的相互转化互为因果,挤压为伸展提供了条件,伸展为金矿的沉淀提供了空间,也为下一次的挤压提供了前提,并伴随着与岩浆—构造事件紧密相关的不同的成矿作用,构成了挤压—伸展的构造—岩浆—成矿作用方式,这是胶东地区形成大型、超大型金矿的动力学条件。     

青岛市崂山区典型地质灾害危险性分析及治理施工方案

青岛市崂山区特殊的自然地理和地质环境条件,在内、外动力地质作用以及人类工程、经济活动的影响下,引发了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流等突发性的地质灾害。在对区内地质灾害点全面调查、排查和勘测工作的基础上,进行地质灾害危险性分析,编制出崂山区典型地质灾害的治理方案,为该区地质灾害治理工作提供技术依据。     

遥感地表温度降尺度方法比较————性能对比及适应性评价

在归纳现有遥感地表温度降尺度方法的基础上, 选取3种代表性方法:Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI)、Pixel Block Intensity Modulation (PBIM)和Linear Spectral Mixture Model (LSMM)方法进行实验比较, 并建立了一种纹理相似性度量指标CO-RMSE (Co-Occurrence Root Mean Square Error)。结果表明:(1)NDVI方法受季节影响最严重, 不适于春、冬季, 其次为PBIM方法;(2)LSMM方法受分辨率限制最大, 低分辨率时丢失大量纹理信息, NDVI方法在较高分辨率时优于PBIM方法, 较低分辨率时则相反;(3)3种方法的适用区域分别为植被与裸土像元并存区域, 山区和反照率变化较大区域, 以及类别间温差较大区域;(4)NDVI方法操作最简单, LSMM方法最复杂。分析认为, 尺度因子是决定方法性能的关键, 应根据季节、分辨率、地表覆盖、应用目的和操作性等综合选择。     

城市模拟目标的3维热辐射方向性模型

以城市3维结构场景为研究目标,考虑其光影遮蔽关系,模拟传感器视场内目标的可见表面,实现视场尺度内城市模拟目标方向亮温的准确模拟。利用地面试验观测数据对3维热辐射方向性模型进行验证。结果表明,该模型对城市3维结构目标的方向亮温具有较好的模拟精度,均方根误差为0.7K,能够描述微观尺度下城市3维模拟目标的热辐射方向性。利用该热辐射方向性模型对城市区域物理模型的方向亮温进行模拟,发现城市区域物理模型热辐射存在显著的方向差异,并伴有热点效应产生。     

工程地质分区在济南奥体中心勘测中的应用

对场地地质条件进行平面上合理的分区和评价,是岩土工程勘测工作的重要内容,也是地基基础方案设计的第一步。通过工程地质分区在济南奥体中心勘测中的实际应用,分析场地按地质条件细分对地基承载力、地基基础设计及场地类别划分的影响,指出工程地质条件的详细分区在重大工程建设中的重要性。