全球气候变化及其影响

全球气候变化及其对社会与自然系统产生的影响已日益受到全世界各国政府与广大民众的关注。与天气和气候有关的灾害给人类生命财产造成的损失日益增大,社会与生态系统似乎变得日趋脆弱。人们关心刚刚过去的20世纪的天气与气候发生了什么变化,更希望了解未来的21世纪,人类居住的地球会出现什么样的气候情景。根据一些国家和地区的观测记录、研究成果以及科学家们对气候变化的评估与预测展望,对全球气候变化问题进行概括。首先阐明20世纪地区性气候变化的事实;并根据政府间气候变化委员会(IPCC)科学技术报告中关于20世纪全球气候变化进行的总结性评估以及对21世纪全球气候变化的预测,作为阐述过去与未来全球气候变化的主要依据。同时,还介绍了一些科学家对IPCC关于全球气候变化的结论所持的不同观点或质疑。还就气候变化对社会与自然系统可能产生的影响略作论述。     

天津地区井水位年变异常研究

近年来 ,中国地震预报学者开始关注井水位的年变异常及其中短期预测意义问题 ,但井水位年变异常判别采用动态图像的定性对比方法 ,表现出一定的随意性。针对这种现状 ,文中引进概率论与数理统计中的随机过程理论与时间序列分析技术 (盛骤等 ,1989) ,提出了“井水位动态年周期法”与“相对时段速率比较法” ,解决了井水位年变异常的定量识别方法 ,并应用到天津井网 2 1口井的观测数据 (1985年以来 )分析中 ,证明了该方法的可行性与有效性。分析结果表明 ,天津井网中有 7口井在首都圈邻区 4次中强 (MS≥ 5 .8)地震之前 ,表现出 17井次的井水位年变异常 ,且多在震前 1.5～6个月内出现 ,从而再次证明了井水位年变异常具有一定的中短期预测意义     

大陆岩石圈导电性的研究方法

随着地球科学的进展 ,大陆岩石圈导电性结构的研究越来越引起人们的重视 ,而超宽频带大地电磁测深则是目前用于探测岩石圈导电性最有效的地球物理先进技术。它把现代性能优良的宽频带大地电磁系统 (MT 2 4NS或V5 2 0 0 0 )与长周期智能化大地电磁系统 (LIMS)配套使用 ,采集地面上频率范围为n× 10 -4～n× 10 2 Hz的天然电磁场信号 ,并通过一系列数据处理和反演计算 ,获得深达下地壳和上地幔的地下导电性结构模型。此模型不仅可以提供有关岩石圈地质构造轮廓的信息 ,更重要的是可以间接反映现今地下深部的热结构特征和物质状态分布特点。多年来 ,应用超宽频带大地电磁测深对青藏高原岩石圈导电性结构的研究表明 ,高原的中、下地壳确实是良导电性的 ;它可能说明西藏地壳中普遍存在岩石的局部熔融 ,或地热流体。沿着应县—商河剖面的大地电磁测深研究结果从电性的角度证明了太行山山前断裂为一组向东倾斜的深断裂 ,华北地区岩石圈以其为界划分为东、西两区 ;东区为低阻区 ,与构造活动区的岩石圈导电性特征相符 ;西区为高阻区 ,表现出稳定大陆区岩石圈导电性结构的特点。     

海底MT信号采集电路的设计

设计海底大地电磁信号采集电路，需考虑海底信号特征、海上作业以及海底环境等各种因素。分析表明，除遵循电路设计的一般原则外，海底大地电磁测量要重点解决微弱信号检测、智能化数据采集、海底环境监测和同步记录等4个方面的问题。在设计方案中，电路灵敏度达到微伏级；使用嵌入式计算机实现采集控制；对方位、倾斜、振动、温度等参数进行巡回记录；仪器的时钟精度精准到微秒。所研制的电路经过了室内模拟测试和海洋试验。首次采集到中国海域的大地电磁数据。     

地球深部物质的某些物性测量方法研究

文中介绍了地球深部物质实验室近 2 0年来开展高温高压下地球深部物质物性实验研究过程中 ,在测量方法方面的进步和应用情况。这些测量方法包括了高温、高压下弹性的超声测量方法、高温高压下电性的测量方法、高压差热分析法和高压下热学Gr櫣ｎｅｉｓｅｎ参数的测量方法诟呶赂哐瓜卵沂涂笪锏牡猿饬恐?,我们由超声脉冲透射方法改进为超声脉冲透射反射法 ,克服了样品室中压力和温度梯度对样品的影响。在高温高压下岩石和矿物的电学性质测量中 ,我们由直流法发展为阻抗谱法 ,不仅克服了样品极化对测量结果的影响 ,还可以获得离子在溶液中的多种物理化学参数 ,以及监测含水矿物在高温高压下的脱水动力学特征。在固体传压介质中建立的高压热学Gr櫣ｎｅｉｓｅｎ参数的测量方法 ,由于升压速率比较小且叶蜡石在高压下的热导系数增大 ,其测量结果需要进行校正 ,其测量方法有待进一步改进。     

Contemporary crustal deformation of the Chinese continent and tectonic block model

We obtain the preliminary result of crustal deformation velocity field for the Chinese continent by analyzing GPS data from the Crustal Motion Observation Network of China (CMONOC), particularly the data from the regional networks of CMONOC observed in 1999 and 2001. We delineate 9 technically active blocks and 2 broadly distributed deformation zones out of a dense GPS velocity field, and derive block motion Euler poles for the blocks and their relative motion rates. Our result reveals that there are 3 categories of deformation patterns in the Chinese continent. The first category, associated with the interior of the Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan orogenic belt, shows broadly distributed deformation within the regions. The third category, associated with the Tarim Basin and the region east of the north-south seismic belt of China, shows block-like motion, with deformation accommodated along the block boundaries only. The second category, mainly associated with the borderland of the Tibetan Plateau, such as the Qaidam, Qilian, Xining (in eastern Qinghai), and the Diamond-shaped (in western Sichuan and Yunnan) blocks, has the deformation pattern between the first and the third, i.e. these regions appear to deform block-like, but with smaller sizes and less strength for the blocks. Based on the analysis of the lithospheric structures and the deformation patterns of the regions above, we come to the inference that the deformation modes of the Chinese continental crust are mainly controlled by the crustal structure. The crust of the eastern China and the Tarim Basin is mechanically strong, and its deformation takes the form of relative motion between rigid blocks. On the other hand, the northward indentation of the Indian plate into the Asia continent has created the uplift of the Tibetan Plateau and the Tianshan Mountains, thickened their crust, and raised the temperature in the crust. The lower crust thus has become ductile, evidenced in low seismic velocity and high electric conductivity observed. The brittle part of the crust, driven by the visco-plastic flow of the lower crust, deforms extensively at all scales. The regions of the second category located at the borderland of the Tibetan Plateau are at the transition zone between the regions of the first and the third categories in terms of the crustal structure. Driven by the lateral boundary forces, their deformation style is also between the two, in the form of block motion and deformation with smaller blocks and less internal strength.     

Asymmetric one‐storey elastic systems with non‐linear viscous and viscoelastic dampers: Simplified analysis and supplemental damping system design

Investigated is the accuracy in estimating the response of asymmetric one‐storey systems with non‐linear viscoelastic (VE) dampers by analysing the corresponding linear viscous system wherein all non‐linear VE dampers are replaced by their energy‐equivalent linear viscous dampers. The response of the corresponding linear viscous system is determined by response history analysis (RHA) and by response spectrum analysis (RSA) extended for non‐classically damped systems. The flexible and stiff edge deformations and plan rotation of the corresponding linear viscous system determined by the extended RSA procedure is shown to be sufficiently accurate for design applications with errors generally between 10 and 20%. Although similar accuracy is also shown for the ‘pseudo‐velocity’ of non‐linear VE dampers, the peak force of the non‐linear VE damper cannot be estimated directly from the peak damper force of the corresponding linear viscous system. A simple correction for damper force is proposed and shown to be accurate (with errors not exceeding 15%). For practical applications, an iterative linear analysis procedure is developed for determining the amplitude‐ and frequency‐dependent supplemental damping properties of the corresponding linear viscous system and for estimating the response of asymmetric one‐storey systems with non‐linear VE dampers from the earthquake design (or response) spectrum. Finally, a procedure is developed for designing non‐linear supplemental damping systems that satisfy given design criteria for a given design spectrum. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Absence of Archean basement in the South Kunlun Block: Nd-Sr-O isotopic evidence from granitoids

Abstract   The West Kunlun mountain range along the northwestern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is crucial in understanding the early tectonic history of the region. It can be divided into the North and South Kunlun Blocks, of which the former is considered to be part of the Tarim Craton, whereas consensus was not reached on the nature and origin of the South Kunlun Block. Samples were collected from the 471 Ma Yirba Pluton, the 405 Ma North Kudi Pluton and the 214 Ma Arkarz Shan Intrusive Complex. These granitoids cover approximately 60% of the Kudi area in the South Kunlun Block. Sr, Nd, and O isotope compositions preclude significant involvement of mantle-derived magma in the genesis of these granitoids; therefore, they can be used to decipher the nature of lower–mid crust in the area. All samples give Mesoproterozoic Nd model ages (1.1–1.5 Ga) similar to those of the exposed metamorphic complex of this block but significantly different from those of the basement of the North Kunlun Block (2.8 Ga). This indicates that the South Kunlun Block does not have an Archean basement, and, thus, does not support the microcontinent model that suggests the South Kunlun Block was a microcontinent once separated from and later collided back with the North Kunlun Block.     

Dinosaur tracks from the Cretaceous of South Korea: Distribution, occurrences and paleobiological significance

Abstract   Abundant dinosaur fossils including dinosaur footprints, eggs and nests, teeth and bones have been found from the Cretaceous non-marine deposits of Korea. Among them, dinosaur tracks are the most distinctive, and some track sites are among the most famous in the world. Until now, 27 dinosaur track localities have been discovered from the Cretaceous strata in the Gyeongsang Basin and several small basins. Ornithopod tracks are most abundant at most Korean track sites, and most of them are identified as Caririchnium ; that is, large ornithopod footprints with wide hoof impressions. Most theropod tracks are found in Neungju Basin and they consist of various types of small or medium-sized bird-like footprints, and other large footprints. Sauropod tracks are also abundant in the Gyeongsang Basin. The sauropod tracks vary in size, shape, and pattern of trackway, and suggest that diverse sauropods existed in this area. These diverse tracks in South Korea suggest that various dinosaurs flourished at the margins of lakes distributed in the southern part of the Korean Peninsula during the Cretaceous.     

Landslide susceptibility analysis using GIS and artificial neural network

The purpose of this study is to develop landslide susceptibility analysis techniques using an arti?cial neural network and to apply the newly developed techniques to the study area of Yongin in Korea. Landslide locations were identi?ed in the study area from interpretation of aerial photographs, ?eld survey data, and a spatial database of the topography, soil type and timber cover. The landslide‐related factors (slope, curvature, soil texture, soil drainage, soil effective thickness, timber age, and timber diameter) were extracted from the spatial database. Using those factors, landslide susceptibility was analysed by arti?cial neural network methods. The landslide susceptibility index was calculated by the back‐propagation method, which is a type of arti?cial neural network method, and the susceptibility map was made with a geographic information system (GIS) program. The results of the landslide susceptibility analysis were veri?ed using landslide location data. The validation results showed satisfactory agreement between the susceptibility map and the existing data on landslide location. A GIS was used to ef?ciently analyse the vast amount of data, and an arti?cial neural network to be an effective tool to maintain precision and accuracy. The results can be used to reduce hazards associated with landslides and to plan land use and construction. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.