Assessment of water inrush risk using the principal component logistic regression model in the Pandao coal mine,China

In order to improve the accuracy of floor water inrush assessment, the risk prediction model of floor water inrush was established by combining the principal component logistic regression analysis (PCLRA) and GIS spatial geographic analysis. In this paper, the geological data of Pandao coal mine was taken as the engineering background. First of all, main controlling factors of floor water inrush were determined and quantified. Next, PCLRA was used to determine the weight of each factor and establish the mathematical model for predicting the floor water inrush. And then, GIS’s spatial analysis and data processing function was used to draw related single factor thematic maps. Related thematic maps were weighted superposed to draw a floor water inrush zoning map based on PCLRA mathematical model. The study areas were divided into five levels by Jenks optimization method and vulnerability index initial model. And the corresponding threshold range was determined. The results show that (1) the high sensitivity factors in floor failure depth were added to evaluate the water inrush, and the fault fractal dimension was used to replace the fault structure related factors, and the main controlling factors of floor water inrush are more comprehensive; (2) the fitting degree of PCLRA model is high and the test accuracy is 83.3%; (3) the prediction results were well fitted to the actual position of water inrush (three water inrush points are located in the dangerous area, and two water inrush points are located in the relatively dangerous area).     

Application on Floor Water Inrush Evaluation Based on AHP Variation Coefficient Method with GIS

The prediction and prevention of floor water inrush is directly related to the safety of the coal mine production. The previous evaluation method of floor water inrush was more one-sided and lacked main control factors related to mining conditions. In order to evaluate the floor water inrush more accurately, under the project background of geological data of Wanglou coal mine, stope width, mining depth, fault scale index, water pressure, water abundance and thickness of aquifer were selected as main controlling factors of floor water inrush. Combined with the subjective weight analytical hierarchy process and the objective weight variation coefficient method, the weight coefficients corresponding to the main controlling factors were obtained respectively. The thematic map of the risk assessment of coal seam floor water inrush was drawn by combining the constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model and geographic information system. The results show that: ① according to the actual geological data of mine, two fault related factors were removed. And stope width and mining depth were increased as the main controlling factors to evaluate floor water inrush. It is easier to compare and calculate the weight of evaluation factors. ② The constructed comprehensive weight vulnerability index model can comprehensively evaluate the risk of floor water inrush. And the results of the evaluation are more accurate. ③ The related thematic maps can directly reflect the risk of floor water inrush, which is of guiding significance for the prediction and prevention of coal seam floor water inrush.     

L波段碳湿敏元件特性试验

目前国内大部分探空站已经启用新一代探空仪——上海长望气象科技有限公司生产的L波段电子探空仪。新探空仪的数据率、测量准确度和可靠性都有较大的提高。新探空仪使用的湿度敏感元件是碳湿敏电阻。我们利用工厂添置的能测到-30℃低温的高精度湿度校准设备，进行了大量静态测试，进一步验证了碳湿敏元件与老探空仪使用的肠衣敏感元件相比，灵敏度高，滞后小，在高空低温期间感应陕，测量准确度有较大提高。     

双站摄像资料重建闪电三维通道的方法

为了满足准确分析闪电通道三维发展特征和闪电先导相互作用的需求,建立了一种利用双站摄像资料重建闪电三维通道的方法,从两幅在不同位置拍摄到的闪电二维图像上分别获取通道的坐标序列,利用空间立体几何原理,寻找两组序列中互相匹配的坐标,再由匹配的坐标序列重建出最终的闪电三维通道。通过对一次实际观测个例的重建与分析,验证了重建算法在实际观测中的可靠性,并对闪电通道的三维长度和二维长度进行了对比,发现两者差异可达2倍以上,充分说明了闪电三维特征分析的重要性。     

青藏高原东北缘寺口子盆地新生代沉积演化及其构造意义

宁夏固原寺口子盆地发育巨厚的新生代地层,这些地层记录了青藏高原东北部的沉积演化特征和构造演变历史。根据剖面沉积物粒度特征、沉积结构和构造、沉积层序,识别出20种岩相、5种沉积相类型。结合前人对寺口子剖面的古地磁测年,分析研究盆地的沉积演化特征以及对构造的响应表明:20.1 Ma盆地以缓慢的坳陷沉降开始演化,直至1.2 Ma遭受破坏。在此期间青藏高原东北部经历了6.4 Ma、4.6 Ma和1.2 Ma这3次明显的构造挤压隆升运动,其中约6.4 Ma的构造运动是青藏高原向东北部扩展首次影响到海原—六盘山断裂以东地区。从盆地的形成和沉积演化过程来看,马东山山前断裂的逆冲推覆,导致了寺口子盆地的强烈变形和构造降升,并且最终成为青藏高原的最新组成部分。     

淮河流域大气环流型在冬季气温预测中的应用

应用Lamb-Jenkinson大气环流分型方法,根据由1970—2012年NCEP/NCAR逐日海平面气压场计算得到的环流指数,对淮河流域的环流进行分型。分析了冬季主要环流型和气温的分布特征及两者的联系,并以环流指数和主要环流型为预测因子,结合经验正交函数分解(EOF)方法和逐步回归方法,建立了淮河流域冬季气温距平的预测模型。结果表明,淮河流域冬季的主要环流型是东北风型、东风型、反气旋环流型以及东北风、东风配合下的反气旋性环流型,划分的环流型符合实际情况,这些环流型具有显著的年际和年代际变化特征。通过对预测模型进行后报试验和独立预报试验,表明该模型具有一定的预报技巧。     

北京地区正地闪时间分布及波形特征

为了给雷电防护及机理研究提供必要的基础数据,利用闪电定位资料和电场快慢变化资料,对北京地区正地闪的时间分布规律及波形特征进行了统计分析。结果表明：北京地区正地闪分布随月份而不同,较大频次出现在5—7月,较高比例出现在春、秋季（3—5月和10—11月）;而一天内的正、负地闪分布具有反对应关系,正地闪在傍晚（15:00—21:00,北京时）具有较大的频次和较高的比例,且该比例随闪电频次增大而呈减少的趋势;正地闪多为单次回击,多回击正地闪数占正地闪总数的3.89%;正地闪波形上升沿时间分布范围为5~28 μs,平均为11.55 μs,慢前沿时间分布在2.8~23.6 μs之间,平均值为9.41 μs,慢前沿幅度与回击峰值比为53%,过零时间为43.97 μs,负反冲深度均值为20.75%,辐射场归一化到100 km的回击场强峰值为13.66 V/m;正地闪连续电流持续时间平均值为113 ms,具有连续电流的正地闪比例高达69.2%,其中48.7%具有长连续电流过程。     

Comparison of P‐wave attenuation models of wave‐induced flow

Wave‐induced oscillatory fluid flow in the vicinity of inclusions embedded in porous rocks is one of the main causes for P‐wave dispersion and attenuation at seismic frequencies. Hence, the P‐wave velocity depends on wave frequency, porosity, saturation, and other rock parameters. Several analytical models quantify this wave‐induced flow attenuation and result in characteristic velocity–saturation relations. Here, we compare some of these models by analyzing their low‐ and high‐frequency asymptotic behaviours and by applying them to measured velocity–saturation relations. Specifically, the Biot–Rayleigh model considering spherical inclusions embedded in an isotropic rock matrix is compared with White's and Johnson's models of patchy saturation. The modeling of laboratory data for tight sandstone and limestone indicates that, by selecting appropriate inclusion size, the Biot‐Rayleigh predictions are close to the measured values, particularly for intermediate and high water saturations.     

基础数据库重点要素更新技术的运用

为提高基础地理信息数据库的现势性,需对国家基础地理信息数据库进行整合与更新。结合实际生产经验,较为全面地介绍国家基础地理信息数据库重点要素更新技术的运用、数据的生产流程及在各生产环节中的作业要点,并提出今后作业时要注意的问题,对提高基础数据库重点要素更新工作的速度和质量具有重要的实际意义。     

Improved form of wind wave frequency spectrum

The lower frequency part of the theoretical wind wave spectrum proposed by the authors (Wen et al. , 1988a, b,c) has been improved and the form of spectrum is appreciably simplified. In addition to the field data collected in the Bohai Sea region and used in the previous papers, those obtained in the Huanghai Sea, the East China Sea and the South China Sea have been employed so that the improved spectra can be verified on a more extensive observational basis. Computed results agree with the observations well. Further comparisons have been made between the proposed spectra and the JONSWAP spectrum. Though the two types of spectrum are close to each other in form, the former shows, as a whole, better agreement with the observation than the latter. By introducing an improved relation between the peak-ness factor and significant wave steepness, the spectrum contains only significant wave height and period as parameters. For spectra given in this form, the computed peak frequencies coincide approximately wit