中国东部夏季极端降水统计特征及其与El Nio的联系

选取中国东部1961—2012年夏季5—9月无缺测429站逐日降水资料,利用广义帕雷托分布(GPD)拟合,研究中国东部52 a以及El Nio发展年和衰减年极端降水的统计特征,并分析其成因。结果表明:1)中国东部降水阈值呈由东南向西北递减的态势,且基本为线性增加趋势。2)华南地区尺度参数最大,出现极端降水的概率大。黄河以南地区尺度参数变化趋势正值较多,出现极端降水的概率增加。3)El Nio发展年夏季,西太平洋上有气旋环流异常,中国东南部受气旋西侧的异常偏北气流影响,多地阈值偏小,只有福建东南部及黑龙江中西部易发生破纪录的极端降水。4)El Nio衰减年夏季,西太平洋上为异常反气旋环流,中国东南部受反气旋西侧的异常偏南气流影响,多地阈值偏大,广东中东部及皖鄂赣交界处发生洪涝灾害的可能性增大。     

The Application of ARGO Data to the Global Ocean Data Assimilation Operational System of NCC

1. Introduction It is well-known that the state of ocean plays very important role in the climate change. But there is a paucity of the ocean observation data. The data distri- bution in the space, time and different components is very inhomogeneous, even in some areas, there are no any observation data. Hence, it brings some diffcul- ties to the scientists to study many problems relevant to ocean. This situation has been being changed since ARGO (Array for Real-time Geostrophic Oceanogra-…     

库车坳陷古近系原型沉积盆地层序地层格架及沉积演化

基于库车坳陷大北—克深地区古近系原型沉积盆地地层沉积相精细研究结果,将古近系库姆格列木群划分为5个岩性段,苏维依组划分为3个岩性段。研究认为库姆格列木群砂砾岩段为扇三角洲沉积,膏泥岩段为局限泻湖沉积,白云岩段为局限泻湖—潮坪沉积,膏盐岩段为半局限泻湖—强蒸发膏盐湖沉积,泥岩段为滨浅湖沉积;按照层序地层学基本原理和五级层序划分方案对库车坳陷中东部古近系原型沉积盆地进行研究并建立了层序发育演化实体模型,研究认为该原型沉积盆地可以划分为两个二级超层序和3个三级层序,古近纪海侵是从大北—克深地区的河流下切谷开始的,3个三级层序均为海侵体系域和高位体系域旋回组合层序,海侵—高位体系域之间的转换界面发育最大或次级海泛面。     

曲靖市冰雹云雷达回波特征及防雹

本文通过对曲靖市711B数字化雷达冰雹云回波特征进行分析,总结2002年～2003年曲靖市防雹工作3年取得的经验,以期提高县级防雹指挥人员雷达回波分析能力和作业指挥能力,在防雹作业中科学的安排防雹炮弹的使用量。     

Trace element and REE geochemistry of the Zhewang gold deposit,southeastern Guizhou Province,China

The quartz vein-type gold deposits are widely hosted by the Neoproterozoic （Xiajiang Group） epimeta- morphic clastic rock series in southeastern Guizhou Province, China. The Zhewang gold deposit studied in this paper occurs in the second lithologieal member of the Pinglue Formation of the Xiajiang Group. Trace element geochemis- try of host rocks, quartz veins and arsenopyrite has revealed that ore-forming fluid was enriched in sulphophile ele- ments such as Au, Ag, As, Sb, Pb and Zn, and simultaneously concentrated some magmaphile elements such as W and Mo, which probably provides some evidence for multi-stage mineralization or overprinting of magmatic hydro- therm. Quartz veins and arsenopyrite were characterized by depletion in HFSE and enrichment in LREE. Hf/Sm, Nb/La and Th/La imply that the ore-forming fluid was probably a NaC1-H20 solution system enriched in more C1 than F; Th/U values reflect the strong reducibility of the ore-forming fluid, coincident with the sulfide assemblages. The values of Co/Ni reflect that magmatic fluids may have partly participated in the ore-forming process and Y/Ho values have proved that the ore-forming fluid was associated with metamorphism and exotic hydrotherm which has reformed former quartz veins during late mineralization. The concentrations of REE, Eu anomalies and Ce anomalies of this deposit display that ore-forming elements mainly were derived from host rocks and possibly from a mixed deep source, and the ore-forming fluid was mixed by dominant metamorphic fluid and minor other sources. The physical-chemical conditions of ore-forming fluid changed from the initial stage to the late stage. The metamorphic fluid is responsible for the mineralization. Therefore, the Zhewang gold deposit is classified as a quartz vein-type gold deposit which may have been reformed by magmatic fluids during the late stage.     

Metallogeny of the Baiyangping Lead‐Zinc Polymetallic Ore Concentration Area,Northern Lanping Basin of Yunnan Province,China

The Lanping Basin in the Nujiang‐Lancangjiang‐Jinshajiang (the Sanjiang) area of northeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau is an important part of eastern Tethyan metallogenic domain. This basin hosts a number of large unique sediment‐hosted Pb‐Zn polymetallic deposits or ore districts, such as the Baiyangping ore concentration area which is one of the representative ore district. The Baiyangping ore concentration area can be divided into the east and west ore belts, which were formed in a folded tectogene of the India‐Asia continental collisional setting and was controlled by a large reverse fault. Field observations reveal that the Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary strata were outcropped in the mining area, and that the orebodies are obviously controlled by faults and hosted in sandstone and carbonate rocks. However, the ore‐forming elements in the east ore belt are mainly Pb‐Zn‐Sr‐Ag, while Pb‐Zn‐Ag‐Cu‐Co elements are dominant in the west ore belt. Comparative analysis of the C‐O‐Sr‐S‐Pb isotopic compositions suggest that both ore belts had a homogeneous carbon source, and the carbon in hydrothermal calcite is derived from the dissolution of carbonate rock strata; the ore‐forming fluids were originated from formation water and precipitate water, which belonged to basin brine fluid system; sulfur was from organic thermal chemical sulfate reduction and biological sulfate reduction; the metal mineralization material was from sedimentary strata and basement, but the difference of the material source of the basement and the strata and the superimposed mineralization of the west ore belt resulted in the difference of metallogenic elements between the eastern and western metallogenic belts. The Pb‐Zn mineralization age of both ore belts was contemporary and formed in the same metallogenetic event. Both thrust formed at the same time and occurred at the Early Oligocene, which is consistent with the age constrained by field geological relationship.     

十堰至天水高速公路磨河村隧道工程地质条件分析

通过对隧址区地形地貌、地层岩性、地质构造、岩土体工程地质特征等的调查,结合工程物探、地质钻探,岩体物理力学试验和地质测绘等勘察成果,分析了隧道洞身及进出口处围岩的稳定性,指出隧道施工过程中可能会遇到的工程地质问题,并提出了超前地质预报、支护、预防地质灾害、保护生态环境等施工措施和建议。     

地震能量空间分布局域标度特性中短期预报方法及效能评价——实际震例的回顾性检验

利用中国大陆丰富的地震记录，对表征地震能量空间分布局域标度特性的各参量〔１〕及其组合进行系统研究，提炼具有可操作性、能够用于日常地震监测预报的实用方法，特别着重于“异常”划分方式及划分标准的研究。这一划分方式及划分标准对不同地区或不同时段均是“动态”可变的，对所研究的１０个区域内发生的中强地震进行回顾性的预报检验，发现对于较短时期（０．５－１．５年），其最大预报评分的平均值介于０．３—０．６之间，明显高于随机应答的概率评分，表明多参数综合使用具有相对强的预报能力     

上软下硬地层浅埋大跨度车站拆撑安全性分析

对于复合式衬砌隧道,初支受力最危险的时期就是为保证二次衬砌的完整性而分段拆除临时支撑的阶段。依托青岛地铁某暗挖车站,采用现场实测数据分析和数值模拟相结合的方法,对比拆撑前后围岩与初支变形情况,进而对6 m范围内交替拆撑,并以6 m为工作单元间隔拆撑的拆撑方案安全性进行分析。实测数据表明,地表沉降、拱顶沉降及净空收敛在拆撑前后增长量及影响均较小,数值计算结果与实测数据吻合较好,可知初支的安全性受支撑拆除的影响较小。研究结论为实现信息化施工提供了依据,也为今后类似工程积累了相关经验。     

几种雷电灾害风险评估计算方法应用对比分析

雷电灾害风险评估中,雷击风险的计算方法有人工计算、Excel表格计算和软件计算3种。选取石嘴山一油库为案例,依据风险管理标准(GB/T 21714.2 -2015),分别采用人工、Excel和软件方法,计算该油库雷电风险总量和风险分量。计算结果显示,软件计算风险总值相对人工计算值总是偏高,特别是对于易燃易爆场所,比人工计算、Excel计算值高20~30倍;人工方法、Excel方法风险总值计算结果较为一致。造成差别的原因是,人工计算主观性大,不同的评估人员在风险分量的选取及计算过程中会出现较大的差别,容易忽略部分风险分量,从而造成风险总量的减少。在风险分量的组成上,对第三类防雷建筑物,人工计算结果更符合实际;对第一、二类防雷建筑物,软件计算结果更符合实际。