Parallel climate model (PCM) control and transient simulations

The Department of Energy (DOE) supported Parallel Climate Model (PCM) makes use of the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3) and Land Surface Model (LSM) for the atmospheric and land surface components, respectively, the DOE Los Alamos National Laboratory Parallel Ocean Program (POP) for the ocean component, and the Naval Postgraduate School sea-ice model. The PCM executes on several distributed and shared memory computer systems. The coupling method is similar to that used in the NCAR Climate System Model (CSM) in that a flux coupler ties the components together, with interpolations between the different grids of the component models. Flux adjustments are not used in the PCM. The ocean component has 2/3° average horizontal grid spacing with 32 vertical levels and a free surface that allows calculation of sea level changes. Near the equator, the grid spacing is approximately 1/2° in latitude to better capture the ocean equatorial dynamics. The North Pole is rotated over northern North America thus producing resolution smaller than 2/3° in the North Atlantic where the sinking part of the world conveyor circulation largely takes place. Because this ocean model component does not have a computational point at the North Pole, the Arctic Ocean circulation systems are more realistic and similar to the observed. The elastic viscous plastic sea ice model has a grid spacing of 27?km to represent small-scale features such as ice transport through the Canadian Archipelago and the East Greenland current region. Results from a 300?year present-day coupled climate control simulation are presented, as well as for a transient 1% per year compound CO₂ increase experiment which shows a global warming of 1.27?°C for a 10?year average at the doubling point of CO₂ and 2.89?°C at the quadrupling point. There is a gradual warming beyond the doubling and quadrupling points with CO₂ held constant. Globally averaged sea level rise at the time of CO₂ doubling is approximately 7?cm and at the time of quadrupling it is 23?cm. Some of the regional sea level changes are larger and reflect the adjustments in the temperature, salinity, internal ocean dynamics, surface heat flux, and wind stress on the ocean. A 0.5% per year CO₂ increase experiment also was performed showing a global warming of 1.5?°C around the time of CO₂ doubling and a similar warming pattern to the 1% CO₂ per year increase experiment. El Niño and La Niña events in the tropical Pacific show approximately the observed frequency distribution and amplitude, which leads to near observed levels of variability on interannual time scales.     

Circulation anomalies associated with tropical-temperate troughs in southern Africa and the south west Indian Ocean

Daily rainfall variability over southern Africa (SA) and the southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) during the austral summer months has recently been described objectively for the first time, using newly derived satellite products. The principle mode of variability in all months is a dipole structure with bands of rainfall orientated northwest to southeast across the region. These represent the location of cloud bands associated with tropical temperate troughs (TTT). This study objectively identifies major TTT events during November to February, and on the basis of composites off NCEP reanalysis data describes the associated atmospheric structure. The two phases of the rainfall dipole are associated with markedly contrasting circulation patterns. There are also pronounced intra-seasonal variations. In early summer the position of the temperate trough and TTT cloud band alternates between the SWIO and southwest Atlantic. In late summer the major TTT axis lies preferentially over the SWIO, associated with an eastward displacement in the Indian Ocean high. In all months, positive events, in which the TTT cloud band lies primarily over the SWIO, are associated with large-scale moisture flux anomalies, in which convergent fluxes form a pronounced poleward flux along the cloud band. This suggests that TTT events are a major mechanism of poleward transfer of energy and momentum. Moisture transport occurs along three principle paths: (1) the northern or central Indian Ocean (where anomalous fluxes extend eastward to the Maritime Continent), (2) south equatorial Africa and the equatorial Atlantic, (3) from the south within a cyclonic flow around the tropical-temperate trough. The relative importance of (2) is greatest in late summer. Thus, synoptic scale TTT events over SA/SWIO often result from large-scale planetary circulation patterns. Hovmoeller plots show that TTT development coincides with enhanced tropical convection between 10°–30°E (itself exhibiting periodicity of around 5 days), and often with convergence of eastward and westward propagating convection around 40°E. Harmonic analysis of 200 hPa geopotential anomalies show that TTT features are forced by a specific zonally asymmetric wave pattern, with wave 5 dominant or significant in all months except February when quasi-stationary waves 1, 2 and 3 dominate. These findings illustrate the importance of tropical and extratropical dynamics in understanding TTT events. Finally, it is suggested that in November–Januar TTT rainfall over SA/SWIO may be in phase with similar rainfall dipole structures observed in the South Pacific and South Atlantic convergence zones. Received: 11 August 1998 / Accepted: 28 May 1999     

General circulation model CO2 sensitivity experiments: Snow-sea ice albedo parameterizations and globally averaged surface air temperature

Two experiments are performed with the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM) coupled to a swamp ocean with annually averaged solar forcing. A swamp ocean model is one in which the ocean temperature is computed from a surface energy balance. Both experiments are run with present (1 × CO₂) and doubled (2 × CO₂) amounts of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂). The first tests the sensitivity of the model to a snow and sea-ice-albedo formulation which facilitates relatively greater ice melt. The second assesses the model response when the basic state of the model in the control run is colder due to a 2% decrease in solar constant. Both are compared to a previous experiment with the same model using a different snow and sea-ice-albedo formulation and the present value of the solar constant. It is found that the globally averaged surface air temperature increase due to a doubling of CO₂ is highly dependent on (1) the type of snow-sea-ice-albedo formulation used such that the parameterization which better facilitates relatively greater ice melt exhibits a greater sensitivity to increased CO₂, and (2) the basic state of the control run such that the colder the basic state, the greater the warming due to increased CO₂.A portion of this study is supported by the U.S. Department of Energy as part of its Carbon Dioxide Research Program.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Mid-Century Ensemble Regional Climate Change Scenarios for the Western United States

To study the impacts of climate change on water resources in the western U.S., global climate simulations were produced using the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Department of Energy (NCAR/DOE) Parallel Climate Model (PCM). The Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) was used to downscale the PCM control (20 years) and three future(2040–2060) climate simulations to yield ensemble regional climate simulations at 40 km spatial resolution for the western U.S. This paper describes the regional simulations and focuses on the hydroclimate conditions in the Columbia River Basin (CRB) and Sacramento-San Joaquin River (SSJ) Basin. Results based on global and regional simulations show that by mid-century, the average regional warming of 1 to 2.5 °C strongly affects snowpack in the western U.S. Along coastal mountains, reduction in annual snowpack was about70% as indicated by the regional simulations. Besides changes in mean temperature, precipitation, and snowpack, cold season extreme daily precipitation increased by 5 to 15 mm/day (15–20%) along theCascades and the Sierra. The warming resulted in increased rainfall at the expense of reduced snowfall, and reduced snow accumulation (or earlier snowmelt) during the cold season. In the CRB, these changes were accompanied by more frequent rain-on-snow events. Overall, they induced higher likelihood of wintertime flooding and reduced runoff and soil moisture in the summer. Changes in surface water and energy budgets in the CRB and SSJ basin were affected mainly by changes in surface temperature, which were statistically significant at the 0.95 confidence level. Changes in precipitation, while spatially incoherent, were not statistically significant except for the drying trend during summer. Because snow and runoff are highly sensitive tospatial distributions of temperature and precipitation, this study shows that (1) downscaling provides more realistic estimates of hydrologic impacts in mountainous regions such as the western U.S., and (2) despite relatively small changes in temperature and precipitation, changes in snowpack and runoff can be much larger on monthly to seasonal time scales because the effects of temperature and precipitation are integrated over time and space through various surface hydrological and land-atmosphere feedback processes. Although the results reported in this study were derived from an ensemble of regional climate simulations driven by a global climate model that displays low climate sensitivity compared with most other models, climate change was found to significantly affect water resources in the western U.S. by the mid twenty-first century.     

Future Climate Change of the Subtropical North Atlantic: Implications for the Cloud Forests of Tenerife

This paper is concerned with climate change in the region of the Canary Islands and the potential implications for the laurel forests of Tenerife. Frequent orographic cloud formation during the dry season is of vital importance to the altitudinal distribution of the laurel forests, because it maintains a semi-humid environment in the otherwise semi-arid climate of the Canary Islands. The distinctive environmental conditions in conjunction with the location of the Canary Islands on the Northern poleward edge of the Hadley Circulation make these ecosystems potentially highly sensitive to regional changes in climatic conditions. To explore this sensitivity, we first quantify observed trends in humidity and temperature across an altitudinal transect at the base of the Anaga peninsular, and second, analyse the results of three GCM experiments (CGCM1, ECHAM4 and CSIRO) to develop alternative climate change scenarios, and third, use these data to assess likely shifts in the elevational distribution of the laurel forest climate envelope. We report a significant increase in relative humidity and decreases in the diurnal temperature range on Tenerife at altitudes below the trade wind inversion within the last 30 years during the dry season, which suggests an increased occurrence of low-level clouds. There is also partial evidence for a drying trend across the trade wind inversion, which may be linked to an increased subsidence. Overall, the models suggest a downward shift of the area climatically suitable for laurel forests, which may be driven by changes in temperature and moisture supply in the region as well as by larger-scale changes in the atmospheric circulation. Our findings contrast with previously published findings for a tropical montane cloud region, which predict an upward shift of the cloud base. This suggests, following the assumptions inherent in the models applied, that the ecological consequences of climate change for cloud forests may be linked to their relative location in the Hadley Circulation.     

Effects of a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns on the summer monsoon circulation: Experiments with the NCAR general circulation model

The time mean response of the summer monsoon circulation, as simulated by the 2.5° latitude-longitude resolution, July version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) General Circulation Model (GCM), to a variety of Indian Ocean surface temperature anomaly patterns is examined. In separate experiments, prescribed changes in surface temperature are imposed in the Western Arabian Sea, the Eastern Arbian Sea or the Central Indian Ocean. The influence of these anomaly patterns on the simulated summer monsoon circulation is evaluated in terms of the geographical distribution of the prescribed change response for any field of interest. This response is defined as the grid point difference between a 30-day mean from a prescribed change experiment and the ensemble average of the 30-day means from the control population for which the same set of climatological ocean surface temperatures are used in each simulation. The statistical significance of such a prescribed change response is estimated by relating the normalized response (defined as the ratio of the prescribed change response to the standard deviation of 30-day means as estimated from the finite sample of control cases) to the classical Student'st-statistic. Using this methodology, the most prominent and statistically significant features of the model's response are increased vertical velocity and precipitation over warm anomalies and typically decreased vertical velocity and precipitation in some preferred region adjacent to the prescribed change region. In the case of cold anomalies, these changes are of opposite sign. However, none of the imposed anomaly patterns produces substantial or statistically significant precipitation changes over large areas of the Indian sub-continent. The only evidence of a major nonlocal effect is found in the experiment with a large positive anomaly (+3°C) in the Central Indian Ocean. In this instance, vertical velocity and precipitation are reduced over Malaysia and a large area of the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean. Thus, while these anomaly experiments produce only a local response (for the most part), it is hoped, as one of the purposes of the planned Monsoon Experiment (MONEX), that the necessary data will be provided to produce detailed empirical evidence on the extent to which Indian Ocean surface temperature anomalies correlate with precipitation anomalies over the Indian subcontinent—a correlation which generally does not appear in these GCM results.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation     

Behavior and Fate of PFOA and PFOS in Sandy Aquifer Sediment

Microcosms were constructed with sediment from beneath a landfill that received waste containing PFOA (perfluorooctanoic acid) and PFOS (perfluorooctane sulfonate). The microcosms were amended with PFOA and PFOS, and sampled after 91, 210, 343, 463, 574, and 740 d of incubation. After 740 d, selected microcosms were extracted to determine the mass of PFOA and PFOS remaining. There was no evidence for degradation of PFOA or PFOS. Over time, the aqueous concentrations of PFOA and PFOS increased in the microcosms, indicating that PFOA and PFOS that had originally sorbed to the sediment was desorbing. At the beginning of the experiment, the adsorption coefficient, K_d, averaged 0.27 L/kg for PFOA and 1.2 L/kg for PFOS. After 740 d of incubation, sorption of PFOA was not detectable and the K_d of PFOS was undetectable in two microcosms and was 0.08 L/kg in a third microcosm. During incubation, the pH of the pore water in the microcosms increased from pH 7.2 to pH ranging from 8.1 to 8.8. The zeta potential of the sediment decreased with increasing pH. These observations suggest that the sorption of PFOA and PFOS at near neutral pH was controlled by the electrostatic sorption on ferric oxide minerals, and not by the sorption to organic carbon. Accurate predictions of PFOA and PFOS mobility in ground water should be based on empirical estimates of sorption using affected aquifer sediment.     

Geological and Isotopic Constraints on the Metallogenic Evolution of the Proterozoic Sediment-Hosted Pb-Zn (Ag) Deposits of Brazil

Integrated studies of seven Proterozoic sediment-hosted, Pb-Zn-Ag sulfide deposits of Brazil, permit the estimation of the age of the hosting sequence and the mineralization, the nature of the sulfur and metal sources, the temperature range of sulfide formation and the environment of deposition. These deposits can be classified into three groups, according to their ages. (a) Archean to Paleoproterozoic: the Boquira deposit, in Bahia state, consists of stratiform massive and disseminated sulfides hosted by parametamorphic sequences of grunnerite-cummingtonite+magnetite that represent a silicate facies of the Boquira Formation (BF). Lead isotope data of galena samples indicate a time span between 2.7 and 2.5 Ga for ore formation, in agreement with the stratigraphic position of the BF. The relatively heavy sulfur isotope compositions for the disseminated and stratiform sulfides (+8.3 to +12.8 ‰ CDT)suggest a sedimentary source for the sulfur. (b) Paleo to Mesoproterozoic: stratiform and stratabound sulfides in association with growth faults are present in the Canoas mine (Ribeira, in Paraná state) and in the Caboclo mineralization (Bahia state). They are hosted by calcsilicates and amphibolites in the Canoas deposit, whereas in the Caboclo area the mineralization is associated with hydrothermally altered dolarenites at the base of the 1.2 Ga Caboclo Formation. The interpreted Pb-Pb age of the Canoas mineralization is coeval with the 1.7 Ga host rocks. Sulfur isotopic data for Canoas sulfides (+1.2 to +16 ‰ CDT) suggest a sea water source for the sulfur. The range between −21.1 and +8.8 ‰ CDT for the Caboclo sulfides could suggest the action of bacterial reduction of seawater sulfates, but this interpretation is not conclusive. (c) Neoproterozoic: stratiform and stratabound sulfide deposits formed during the complex diagenetic history of the host carbonate rocks from the Morro Agudo (Bambui Group), Irecê and Nova Redenção (Una Group), yield heavy sulfur isotope values (+18.9 to +39.4 ‰ CDT). The uniform heavy isotope composition of the barites from these deposits (+25.1 to +40.9 ‰) reflect their origin from Neoproterozoic seawater sulfates. The late-stage, and most important, metallic concentrations represent sulfur scavenged from pre-existing sulfides or from direct reduction of evaporitic sulfate minerals. Lead isotope data from the Bambui Group suggest focused fluid circulation from diverse Proterozoic sediment sources, that probably was responsible for metal transport to the site of sulfide precipitation. (d) Late Proterozoic to Early Paleozoic: lead-zinc sulfides (+pyrite and chalcopyrite) of Santa Maria deposits, in Rio Grande do Sul, form the matrix of arkosic sandstones and conglomerates, and are closely associated with regional faults forming graben structures. Intermediate volcanic rocks are intercalated with the basal siliciclastic members. Lead isotope age of the mineralization (0.59 Ga) is coeval with the host rocks. Sulfur isotopic values between −3.6 and +4.1 are compatible with a deep source for the sulfur.Geological, petrographic and isotopic data of the deposits studied suggest that they were formed during periods of extensional tectonics. Growth faults or reactivated basement structures probably were responsible for localized circulation of metal-bearing fluids within the sedimentary sequences. Sulfides were formed by the reduction of sedimentary sulfates in most cases. Linear structures are important controls for sulfide concentration in these Proterozoic basins.     

Integrity of an integrated GPS/INS system in the presence of slowly growing errors. Part II: analysis

This is the second of two consecutive papers (Part II) in this journal on the monitoring of the integrity of integrated GPS/INS systems. Part I established that the worst class of error for an integrated system in terms of failure detection performance is that of slowly growing errors (SGEs). It was also concluded that among the integration architectures, the tightly coupled architecture provides the best mechanism to tackle SGEs due to its simpler structure and accessibility to the relevant measurements. In a subsequent comparison of the existing integrity algorithms, the multiple solution separation (MSS) and autonomous integrity monitoring by extrapolation (AIME) methods were selected for further analysis because of their representative characteristics of the current integrity algorithms. This paper carries out a detailed investigation of the capability of the MSS and AIME algorithms to deal with the SGEs, using a realistic simulation platform and limited real data analysis. Results show that although it is possible for the existing algorithms to detect SGEs, the time it takes to detect them varies inversely to the rate of growth of the SGE. A new algorithm is developed to deal with this based on the concept of rate detection. Simulation results show that the new algorithm can detect SGEs earlier than the current algorithms. This is validated by preliminary tests with real data.