PCA-BP神经网络在SO2浓度预报中的应用

将基于主成分分析(PCA)的BP神经网络预报方法引入大气污染预报,建立SO2浓度预报模型.结果表明:应用主成分分析对数据进行前处理,以原始预报因子的主成分作为BP神经网络的输入,降低了数据维数,消除了样本间存在的相关性,大大加快了BP神经网络的收敛速度.对模型进行预报验证,预报值与实际值之间的绝对误差为0.0098,预报值与实际值的相关系数达到0.885,得到较好的预报效果.并且比一般的BP神经网络模型具有较高的拟合和预报精度.     

辽河盆地西部凹陷古近系沙四上亚段沉积相及演化

薄互层砂体研究是湖盆沉积学的研究难点。本文针对辽河西部凹陷沙四上亚段（Es^4上）薄互层砂体,以层序地层学、沉积学、测井地质学等理论为指导,综合岩心、测录井和地震等多种资料,对西部凹陷的薄互层砂体进行精细描述和深入剖析。结果表明,研究区主要发育辫状河三角洲和湖泊沉积相,其中,滩坝砂体是湖泊相的主力砂体。通过考虑不同沉积背景下滩坝在岩相组合、发育位置和成因机理的差异性,将滩坝划分成侧缘改造型滩坝、前缘改造型滩坝、基岩改造型滩坝、淹没改造型滩坝和风暴改造型滩坝5种沉积模式;对薄层滩坝砂体的控制因素进行分析,认为其受到"风场-物源-盆地"三端元的控制。     

Petrogenesis of the new lherzolitic shergottite Grove Mountains 99027: Constraints of petrography,mineral chemistry,and rare earth elements

Abstract— We report petrography, mineral chemistry, and microdistribution of rare earth elements (REE) in a new lherzolitic shergottite, Grove Mountains (GRV) 99027. The textural relationship and REE patterns of minerals suggest precipitation of cumulus olivine and chromite, followed by equilibrium crystallization of a closed system with a bulk composition of the inferred intercumulus melt. Subsolidus equilibrium temperatures of pyroxenes and olivine range from 1100 to 1210 °C, based on a two‐pyroxene thermometry and Ca partitioning between augite and olivine. Oxygen fugacity of the parent magma is 1.5–2.5 (av. 2.0 ± 0.4) log units below the quartz‐fayalite‐magnetite (QFM) buffer at 960–1360 °C, according to the olivine‐orthopyroxene‐chromite barometer. The ilmenite‐chromite barometer and thermometer show much wider ranges of oxygen fugacity (1.0–7.0 log unit below QFM) and temperature (1130–480 °C), suggesting subsolidus equilibration of the oxides at low temperatures, probably due to deep burial of GRV 99027 on Mars. The low oxygen fugacity and LREE depletion of the parent magma of GRV 99027 suggest low contamination by martian crust. Characteristics of GRV 99027 demonstrate similarity of lherzolitic shergottites, suggesting a high possibility of launch pairing or a homogeneous upper mantle of Mars if they were ejected by individual impact events. However, GRV 99027 probably experienced severe post‐shock thermal metamorphism in comparison with other lherzolitic shergottites, based on the re‐crystallization of maskelynite, the homogeneity of minerals, and the low subsolidus equilibrium temperatures between chromite and ilmenite.     

Comparison of temperature extremes between Zhongshan Station and Great Wall Station in Antarctica

Although temperature extremes have led to more and more disasters, there are as yet few studies on the extremes and many disagreements on temperature changes in Antarctica. Based on daily minimum, maximum, and mean air temperatures(Tmin, Tmax, Tmean) at Great Wall Station(GW) and Zhongshan Station(ZS), we compared the temperature extremes and revealed a strong warming trend in Tmin, a slight warming trend in Tmean, cooling in Tmax, a decreasing trend in the daily temperature range, and the typical characteristic of coreless winter temperature. There are different seasonal variabilities, with the least in summer. The continentality index and seasonality show that the marine air mass has more effect on GW than ZS. Following the terminology of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC AR5), we defined nine indices of temperature extremes, based on the Antarctic geographical environment. Extreme-warm days have decreased, while extreme-warm nights have shown a nonsignificant trend. The number of melting days has increased at GW, while little change at ZS. More importantly, we have found inverse variations in temperature patterns between the two stations, which need further investigation into the dynamics of climate change in Antarctica.     

双重介质中核素迁移模型的解析解及其应用

给出了具有单裂隙的双重介质中，裂隙一端有分时注入源情形下的迁移模型的解析解及一些简化条件下的解析解，并利用解析解研究了核素在双重介质中的迁移问题。     

冬季南海SST月异常时500hPa气温响应场的传播路径

利用中科院大气物理研究所的两层大气环流模式（ＩＡＰ—ＧＣＭⅡ）作了南海海表水温月异常时５００ｈＰａ气温响应场传播路径的数值试验。结果表明：当南海表面水温出现正异常时该气温响应场分为南北两支传播;北支沿逆时针路径向北传播,由南海经我国东南部到达青藏高原,南支则向南传播;而当负异常时,则该响应场有顺时针的传播路径,由南海经泰国湾最后也到达青藏高原。     

天津市地震前兆台网的运行监控与维护管理

介绍天津市地震前兆台网的基本概况以及前兆台网部的职责任务;阐述仪器设备运行监控、观测数据质量监控的方式与方法;总结在仪器设备、技术系统维护过程中解决的一些关键技术问题;最后提出了关于仪器和软件系统的一些问题与建议。     

1961-2008年中国西南地区极端气候变化幅度的海拔效应(英文)

A total of 12 indices of temperature extremes and 11 indices of precipitation ex-tremes at 111 stations in southwestern China at altitudes of 285-4700 m were examined for the period 1961-2008. Significant correlations of temperature extremes and elevation in-cluded the trends of diurnal temperature range, frost days, ice days, cold night frequency and cold day frequency. Regional trends of growing season length, warm night frequency, coldest night and warmest night displayed a statistically significant positive correlation with altitude. These characteristics indicated the obvious warming with altitude. For precipitation extreme indices, only the trends of consecutive dry days, consecutive wet days, wet day precipitation and the number of heavy precipitation days had significant correlations with increasing alti-tude owing to the complex influence of atmospheric circulation. It also indicated the increased precipitation mainly at higher altitude areas, whereas the increase of extreme precipitation events mainly at lowers altitude. In addition, the clearly local influences are also crucial on climate extremes. The analysis revealed an enhanced sensitivity of climate extremes to ele-vation in southwestern China in the context of recent warming.