Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

Investigation of Adsorption–Desorption,Induced Strains and Permeability Evolution During N2–ECBM Recovery

Natural Resources Research - In this study, the adsorption–desorption/induced strains/permeability characteristics of seven columnar coal samples with Ro.ran ranging from 0.42 to 3.23% were...     

基于PPT战略的广东省乐昌市生态旅游扶贫模式探讨

以贫困人口受益为出发点,基于有利于贫困人口发展的旅游(Pro-Poor Tourism,PPT)战略,以广东省乐昌市为例,开展适用于中国南方林区生态旅游扶贫开发的发展模式和旅游扶贫产业的发展路径研究.结果表明:1)政府部门、旅游企业、乡村社区和非营利社会组织都应在提升贫困人口参与度、减轻贫困和生态保护方面承担责任,具体...     

四川省县域乡村地域功能类型识别及乡村振兴路径研究

乡村振兴战略背景下,中国乡村进入转型发展的关键阶段,探索不同地域类型的乡村振兴具体路径具有重要意义。以四川省为例,构建县域乡村地域功能评价指标体系,研究县域经济发展、粮食生产、社会保障和生态保育功能的空间差异,识别各县域主导功能和短板功能,探索各类型区差异化的乡村振兴路径。结果表明：1）四川省乡村地域功能空间格局分异特征明显。经济发展功能和社会保障功能的地带性规律基本一致,均呈现由川东南向川西北逐渐减弱的分异格局,粮食生产功能在成都平原经济区和攀西安宁河流域的空间集聚特征明显,生态保育功能则呈现由川东南向川西北逐渐增强态势。2）以主导功能和短板功能为划分原则,将四川省划分为主导发展型、极化发展型和综合发展型三大类,并根据不同地域类型提出乡村振兴的实施路径：主导发展型应优先发挥主导功能,同时整合协调其他功能,带动乡村振兴全面发展;极化发展型在发挥其优势功能的同时需补齐短板,实现基本均衡发展;综合发展型依托现有基础,实现产业再升级,促进产城融合,成为四川省乡村振兴发展引领示范区。     

旅游地饮食符号经济：地方符号营造与路径依赖

饮食符号是旅游目的地符号系统的重要组成部分,以地方特色饮食为基础的旅游餐饮也是旅游地的重要经济活动。文章以阳朔啤酒鱼为例,分析旅游地饮食符号经济的特点与形成机制。研究发现,1）旅游地饮食符号的形成既是对地方特色的营销与建构,也是特定饮食产品生产与消费集聚的路径依赖结果。2）从饮食生产的角度,就地取材、利润高、制作工艺简单等特点使啤酒鱼餐饮能够大规模、低成本地发展;从饮食消费的角度,啤酒鱼既具有地方特色又能够被大众口味所接受,同时满足游客的符号性和支持性的餐饮体验。3）消费性服务业的集聚能够营造良好的氛围并产生累积吸引力,使得啤酒鱼的营销成本更低、销量更高,从而形成正反馈机制。     

黄河流域煤炭富集区煤炭水足迹演变及驱动效应研究

煤炭与水资源相互影响和制约,如何评价煤炭耗水的演变趋势及其影响机制对煤炭和水资源进行协同管理具有重要意义。基于国际标准的煤炭水足迹测算模型,分析2000—2017年黄河流域煤炭富集区——晋陕蒙煤炭水足迹的时空演变趋势,构建煤炭水足迹压力指数评价区域煤炭和水资源的匹配关系,并运用LMDI模型定量分析煤炭水足迹的驱动效应。结论如下：① 煤炭水足迹总量在研究期内呈增长趋势,主要以原煤和火力发电水足迹为主,山西和内蒙古煤炭水足迹最高,陕西最低。② 研究区整体煤炭水足迹压力指数逐渐增大,由煤–水关系缓和型逐渐演变为煤–水关系制约型,从空间分异来看,山西最大,研究期内均属于煤–水紧张型,陕西次之,内蒙古最小,均由煤–水关系缓和型演变为煤–水关系制约型。③ 影响煤炭水足迹的主要驱动因素是经济效应和技术效应,前者对煤炭水足迹的影响逐渐增强,后者对煤炭水足迹压力的影响先增强后减弱,各驱动效应空间分异明显。研究结果可为煤炭富集区煤炭和水资源可持续利用提供决策参考,为黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展的资源管理提供决策支持。     

基于交通大数据的广东省高速公路碳排放计量模型与空间格局

以广东省为例,基于高速公路联网收费系统的路段车流数据,建立包含I~IV类客车和I~VI类货车在内的全样本、高精度碳排放计量模型,并采用地理空间分析法探索广东省高速公路碳排放空间差异性。结论主要有：1）广东省高速公路碳排放主要来自于货车,货车碳排放占碳排放总量的57.1%;客车占42.9%。其中,中小型机动车,如I类客车（即小汽车）、I类和III类货车等是高速公路主要碳排放源。2）在高速公路网络中,碳排放高值路段具有集中于国家级高速公路、邻近经济发达和人口密集区、邻近机场和港口等空间特征。客车碳排放高值路段主要集中在珠三角区域,沿广州市向外呈放射状分布;货车碳排放高值路段主要分布在国家级高速公路,且货车载货量越小,碳排放空间分布越集中。3）广东省高速公路碳排放较高的地市多集中在珠三角城市群,广州市城市首位效应突出。县区尺度下,高速公路碳排放的空间非均衡特征显著,碳排放较高的县区多为广州市和佛山市下属县区。     

围绕南海问题的信息权力作用过程与机制研究

2010年以来,南海争端呈现扩大化和复杂化的态势,形成环南海周边国家侵占岛礁、域外国家广泛介入的局面,进而推动南海问题日益走向“国际化”。分析南海问题中的国家（地区）间合作与冲突关系,挖掘南海问题“复杂化”的深层原因,这是理解当前南海局势、避免战略误判的重要支撑。文章借助GDELT新闻媒体数据库,提取2013—2021年有关南海问题的事件数据,利用年代约束聚类方法将南海问题划分为矛盾上升期（2013—2018年）和域外介入期（2019年以后）,并利用社会网络分析方法探讨南海问题中的国家（地区）间合作与冲突关系以及背后的信息生产网络。研究发现：1）矛盾上升期,围绕南海问题的合作与冲突主体主要为环南海国家;2）域外介入期,美国、英国、澳大利亚等域外国家结盟合作并围堵中国,中国在与域内国家紧密合作的同时,却成为冲突关系网络的核心,冲突关系复杂、合作关系萎缩与当前人们对南海问题有所缓和的认知形成矛盾,反映信息权力的作用愈发深远;3）信息生产网络中,美、英、澳等国家主导信息制造和加工过程,表明南海问题成为各信息行为体博弈的角力场。     

Variation characteristics of evaporation in the Gulang River Basin during 1959-2013

Based on monthly evaporation of two meteorological stations in the Gulang River Basin of China, the inter-annual variation of evaporation during 1959-2013 were analyzed using Mann-Kendall and wavelet analysis. The results demonstrated that the annual evaporation show a fluctuating increase over the past 50 years approximately, with an average increase rate of 4.26 mm per decade. The overall trend was decrease-increase-decrease. According to the cumulative anomaly curve,the turning point of the annual evaporation occurred in 1979, in which the evaporation increased in the early stage and decreased in the later stage. Meanwhile, the seasonal variation of the evaporation shows that it decreased in Spring and Autumn, and increased in Summer and Winter, especially obvious for the later. The evaporation abruptly changed in Spring and Summer in 2008 and in Winter in 1994. In addition, all evaporation increased after the changes. However,the evaporation in Autumn abruptly changed in 1986 and 1999, which show a trend of increase-decrease-increase.Wavelet analysis shows that evaporation in Summer and wet season would decrease in the next few years, and in the other seasons would increase. Based on the aforementioned analysis, it can be concluded that increased evaporation is mainly induced by increase of evaporation in dry season, especially in Winter, and this trend to be continued in the future for the Gulang River Basin.     

新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流动的空间关系及对中国城市公共卫生分类治理启示

人口流动影响新冠肺炎疫情传播与风险扩散。基于百度迁徙大数据和各省市区卫生健康委员会数据，结合地理信息技术，研究了2020年1月1日至3月5日136个城市新冠肺炎疫情扩散与武汉市人口流出的空间关系及其对我国城市公共卫生治理启示。研究表明：1）中国新冠肺炎疫情扩散过程具有阶段性特征，经历了疫情发生与隐性扩散、快速扩散与暴发、扩散遏制和扩散衰减4个阶段。2）研究时间段武汉市人口主要流向湖北省境内以及周边省市和北京、上海、广州、深圳等一线城市，具有地理邻近性和倾向区域中心城市的人口流入特征。受地理距离、时间成本、社会经济联系、境外输入等因素的影响，新冠肺炎疫情空间分布的不平衡性明显，长江中游城市群、京津冀城市群、长三角城市群、粤港澳大湾区和成渝城市群成为新冠肺炎疫情集中分布的重点区域，一些重点出入境口岸城市的新冠疫情扩散风险较大。3）新冠肺炎疫情扩散与人口流出之间具有较强的正向等级相关性。两者之间的空间关系可以分为8种调控类型，近90%的城市具有人口流入多、确诊病例数高或人口流入少、确诊病例数低的特征。其中，人口流入多、确诊病例数高的城市主要集中分布在湖北省境内以及中国重点城市群的中心城市，其防控压力来自人口流入多、确诊病例数高带来的疫情扩散风险；而人口流入少、确诊病例数低的城市分布较为分散，其防控的难点在于提高防控对策的精准性。我国疫情防控取得了显著成效，但随着时间的演进全球疫情形势反弹的不确定性仍然存在，外防输入、内防反弹的压力依然很重，现阶段乃至未来一段时期，疫情防控将伴随中国经济社会发展成为新常态。建议针对8种调控类型，从人口流动、交通和资源等引导与管控方面分类提出精细化的疫情防控策略，提升城市公共卫生治理能力。