地理学的逻辑方法和基本法则

从科学哲学和科学学的角度考察地理学思想史,可以发现:地理学之所以徘徊于科学性不强的“经验科学”的水平,关键在于其科学的理论化和系统化不够。本文对地理学的逻辑方法及其公理系统作了初步探讨,并尝试就此推演地理定理,估计地理学的未来发展趋势。     

Impacts of primary deforestation upon limestone slopes in northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia

Effects of deforestation upon slopes in limestones and in volcanic rocks in the Benson River valley, northern Vancouver Island, have been investigated quantitatively. Postlogging soil erosion and vegetal regeneration success were assessed by measuring soil depth, percent bare rock and moss cover, and the numbers and diversity of trees, shrubs, and plants on 25 sampling sites, each containing ten measuring quadrats selected at random. Sixteen sites were on the Quatsino Formation, a well-karstified limestone, and nine on the Karmutsen Formation of basaltic lavas. Eight sites were of virgin forest, 16 were logged between 1970 and 1983, and one (on limestone) was logged in 1911. Both bedrock types were significantly affected by the cutting. There was greater loss of soil and an increase in bare rock on the limestones. Erosion was increased significantly by burning on the limestones but not on the volcanics. Within-group comparisons on the limestones determined that steeper slopes and harder burned areas suffered the most and are slowest to regenerate. Volume of timber on the 1911 site was 19 percent of that in similar uncut forest sites. It appears that complete recovery on the barren limestone slopes will require at least some centuries.     

城镇增长下的收缩：以武汉为例

首先从人口、经济、用地3个维度综合考察武汉市增长与收缩的全貌,并采用县区及街道2个尺度的数据定量描述了武汉市增长与收缩的特征与空间格局,发现武汉市下辖青山区、硚口区、汉阳区和蔡甸区存在局部较严重的收缩现象,空间上形成集聚,形态上呈“穿孔式”。进一步以青山区为案例,着重从资本视角探讨发生局部收缩的内在机制,发现其存在老龄化、少子化趋势,但局部收缩的主因是资本从产业部门的“逃逸”。     

Natural aggregates in the performance and durability of concrete: chemical characteristics

This article continues from the earlier feature in Geology Today (2011, v.27, n.4) and looks at the influence of chemical reactivity within concrete due to the presence of unsound aggregates or deleterious material incorporated in the aggregate used in the concrete mix. Some of the more disruptive problems from chemical unsoundness come from the presence of chlorides, which cause rusting in reinforced concrete or, sulphate attack from ground waters. Both of these reactions are relatively common in Britain. Alkali–silica reactions with aggregates and cement is not too prevalent in Britain but can be very prevalent and disruptive elsewhere in the world.     

Cavity expansion in cross‐anisotropic rock

Schistous rock can be considered—in a first approximation—as cross‐anisotropic linear elastic material. The determination of the corresponding material constants on the basis of the laboratory investigation of rock samples often fails, as the extraction of appropriate cores proves to be unfeasible (the cores disintegrate if the schistosity is pronounced). In this paper a new method is presented to determine the material constants of a linear elastic cross‐anisotropic rock on the basis of cavity expansion field tests, e.g. with a radial jack. To this purpose, an analytic approximation for the deformation of a hydrostatically loaded cylindrical cavity in cross‐anisotropic rock is derived which serves to the inverse analysis of the material parameters. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

频率域全波形反演方法研究进展

全波形反演是一种利用地震波传播的动力学特征来获取地下介质物性参数的反演方法,可为揭示地下精细结构提供重要依据。本文以弹性波方程作为数学模型来模拟地震波传播规律并进行相应的反演方法研究。为提高计算效率与反演结果的准确性,可将近似解析离散化（NAD）算子用于频率域弹性波方程的正演模拟。本文在频率域NAD离散的基础上推导阻抗矩阵的稀疏分块结构与反演目标函数对模型参数的梯度计算公式,由此建立基于NAD算子的频率域弹性波全波形反演方法。为验证该方法的有效性,文中通过数值实验对多种典型介质模型进行反演计算,均得到了理想的反演结果。

     

资本禀赋、城市环境对流动人口机会型创业的影响研究

在“大众创业、万众创新”的时代背景下,流动人口机会型创业的发生机制是亟待深入研究的问题。论文通过关注个体资本禀赋和城市环境2个层面因素,对比跨省、省内跨市和市内跨县3类不同范围的流动群体,剖析了中国城市流动人口机会型创业的影响机制。结果表明：(1)中国城市流动人口的总体机会型创业率较低,但跨省流动人口的创业率高于省内跨市和市内跨县流动人口;(2)不同资本禀赋对3类流动人口机会型创业产生了差异化影响。社会资本与经济资本之间存在互补关系,随着流动范围的扩大,社会资本对流动人口机会型创业的影响不断增强,经济资本的影响则逐渐减弱;(3)城市环境解释了10%～20%的流动人口机会型创业决策变异,流动范围越大,流动人口对外在环境的变化越敏感,尤其劳动力市场分割状况显著影响了跨省流动人口的创业决策。此外,个体资本禀赋与城市环境的相互作用对机会型创业的影响同时存在着负向和正向2种效应。针对不同流动范围人口机会型创业的影响机制及其差异性的探讨,可为完善城市创业支持体系提供科学依据。     

Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.     

基于水利益共享的跨境流域水资源多目标分配研究——以澜沧江-湄公河为例

以水利益共享代替分水的理念有利于充分发挥水资源效益和减少区域矛盾冲突,但由于缺乏具体可实施的分配模式一直停留在设想阶段。基于水利益共享理念,建立跨境流域水资源多目标分配指标体系,并结合澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源利用现状及需求,提出澜沧江-湄公河流域跨境水资源多目标分配模型。为基于水利益共享的跨境水资源多目标分配提供了具有充分可操作性的指标体系和分配模型,有助于推进跨境流域水利益共享的实施,实现区域双边或多边在水资源利用上的共赢和发展目标。