THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN EFFICACY OF GEOELECTRICAL RESISTIVITY METHOD IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION AND SITE CONDITION

INTRODUCTION In the past two decades, field observation, laboratory experiments, and the theoretical studies in the study on earthquake prediction have been carried out in several countries, by using ρ_s method, and valuable results have been achieved. The first geoelectrical resistivity (ρ_s) observatory for earthquake forecasting established at     

The expert system for earthquake prediction (I)—the overall design and main structure

The Expert System For Earthquake Prediction (ESEP) is summarized in this paper. ESEP embraces three subsystems: long-middle term prediction system, annual prediction system and middle-short term prediction system. Each of the subsystems is composed of seven modules: the controlling module, the data base module, the expert knowledge base module, the method base module, the fact preparation module, the reasoning and decision-making module and the plotting and displaying module. The reasoning model ESEP/R and the knowledge expression model ESEP/K are set up in the ESEP, and new evidence combinations, CON (confine), W (weigh), and SYN (synthesize), have been proposed. The distinctive features of the ESEP are: (1) systemized; (2) several experts’ knowledge can be synthesized; (3) a large amount of data and experts’ experience is embraced; (4) four reasoning models and the synthetic decision-making technic are adopted; (5) several software environments are used; (6) modularization; and (7) possessing the friendly user interfaces. The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,14, 1–8, 1992.     

琼州7.5级地震区深部电性异常及地震活动性研究

通过对1605年琼州7.5级大地震震中区及邻近地区大地电磁探测,发现震中区地壳深部存在一低阻体.该低阻体自约13 km以下一直延伸到上地幔,推测其为正在上升的地幔柱,并由此认为地幔柱的存在及其热物质的上涌,使上部地壳产生断裂和粘滑活动,是产生琼州7.5级大地震的重要原因. 这次大地震后断裂活动表现为以蠕滑为主.推测未来再发生同等强度大地震的危险性将大大降低.      

格尔木井水温异常特征及其与地震关系分析

简要介绍了格尔木井水温动态观测的环境与条件,在研究正常动态特征和影响因素的基础上,对水温异常的映震关系进行了分析,并成功地进行了一次短临地震趋势预测。探讨了水温异常的形成原因。     

Knowledge Representation Methods in Expert System for Earthquake Prediction ESEP 3.0

INTRODUCTIONKnowledgerepresentationandknowledgeacquisitionarekeyissuesinbuildinganexpertsystem .Theyarecloselyrelatedtothedomainproblem solvinglevelandcompetenceoftheexpertsystem .Intheknowledgeacquisitionprocess,thedomainexpertwillfirstofferandorganizepr…     

云南省乡镇农村地震灾害直接经济损失研究

根据1993-2003年30余次云南省地震的损失评估调查资料,建立了云南省农村乡镇各烈度区房屋建筑物损失与受灾人口的定量关系,初步建立了各烈度区水利设施损失、生命线工程损失与房屋建筑物损失的关系。以云南地区2004年-2005年4次地震为实例,用以上计算方法估算了4次地震的直接经济损失,并与地震现场评估的结果作比较,结果表明,该计算模型实用性强,对一般性地震的模拟误差平均值在30％左右。     

1954年山丹7.3级地震灾害

1954年2月11日,中国西部河西走廊发生山丹7.3级强烈地震,这是建国以来发生在西北地区的第一个大地震。地震造成47人死亡,332人受伤,数万人无家可归;房屋损坏7277间,估计财产损失远高于2003年山丹6.1级地震灾害的直接经济损失。极震区烈度达Ⅺ度,红寺湖盆地、山丹县城破坏最重,山丹地区受灾面积4800km2。本文简要介绍了山丹地震参数、地震烈度及震区环境;重点描述了房屋建筑物破坏,分析了地震灾害特点及其经济损失估计。最后探讨了这次地震震害的成因、防震减灾的经验及其借鉴意义。     

High-resolution climate variability of southwest China during 57-70 ka reflected in a stalagmite δ18O record from Xinya Cave

A 26-cm-long stalagmite (XY2) from Xinya Cave in northeastern Chongqing of China has been ICP-MS ²³⁰Th/U dated, showing a depositional hiatus at 2.3 cm depth from the top. The growth of the 2.3–26 cm interval determined by four dates was between 57 ka and 70 ka, with a linear growth rate of 0.023 mm/a. We have analyzed 190 samples for δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C, mostly in the 2.3–26 cm part. The δ ¹⁸O and δ ¹³C values between 57 ka and 70 ka reveal decadal-to-centennial climatic variability during the glacial interval of Marine Isotope Stage 4 (MIS4), exhibiting much higher resolution than that of the published Hulu and Dongge records during this interval. Speleothem δ ¹⁸O in eastern China, including our study area can be used as a proxy of summer monsoon strength, with lighter values pointing to stronger summer monsoon and higher precipitation, and vice versa. Two decreases in the δ ¹⁸O signature of XY2 record around 59.5 and 64.5 Ka are argued to correspond to the Dansgaard-Oeschger (D-O) events 17 and 18 respectively. The Heinrich event 6 (H6) can be identified in the record as a heavy δ ¹⁸O peak around 60 ka, indicating significant weakening of the monsoon in Chongqing during the cold period. The XY2 δ ¹⁸O record shows very rapid change toward to the interstadial condition of the D-O event, but more gradual change toward to the cold stadial condition. This phenomenon found in the Greenland ice core records is rarely observed so clearly in previously published speleothem records. According to SPECMAP δ ¹⁸O record, the glacial maximum of MIS 4 was around 64.5 ka with the boundary of MIS 3/4 around 60 ka. Unlike the marine record, the speleothem record of XY2, China, exhibits much high frequency variations without an apparent glacial maximum during MIS 4. However, the timing of MIS 3/4 boundary seems to be around 60 ka when the H6 terminated, in agreement with the marine chronology. The growth period of sample XY2 during glacial times probably reflects a local karstic routing of water, rather than having climatic significance. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40672165, 90511004, 40672202) and the Academician Special Project of Chongqing Science Committee (Grant No. 2003-7835)     

我国省域工业主导产业的遴选与发展

工业主导产业在国民经济发展中起着决定性和指向性的作用。主导产业的选择是经济发展阶段的重要课题。依据6个量化指标,从4个维度对"十一五"期间主导产业进行遴选,发现以能源及相关产业为代表的重化工业是各省的重点,高新技术产业成为主导产业的省份较少,劳动密集型产业依然是东部发达省市的重点,预期中的产业转移并未实现;以行业为变量对各省份的主导产业进行聚类分析,可将31个省份划分为5类,反映了我国各省份主导产业布局特点;在此基础上,依据产业生命周期理论和各地区"十二五"发展趋势,提出了相应的对策建议。     

我国港口城市的功能模式研究

基于港口城市功能的评价指标体系,采用主成分分析法,提取反映港口城市功能特征的4个主成分因子;运用分层聚类法对我国21个港口城市的主成分得分进行聚类分析;结合港口功能、城市功能、港口与城市关系等指标对我国港口城市功能模式进行总结,并分析不同功能模式港口城市的发展特征和存在问题;基于港口城市功能模式差异性分析,提出我国港口城市发展的几点建议。