Developing an Event Tree for probabilistic hazard and risk assessment at Vesuvius

Probabilistic characterizations of possible future eruptive scenarios at Vesuvius volcano are elaborated and organized within a risk-based framework. In the EXPLORIS project, a wide variety of topics relating to this basic problem have been pursued: updates of historical data, reinterpretation of previous geological field data and the collection of new fieldwork results, the development of novel numerical modelling codes and of risk assessment techniques have all been completed. To achieve coherence, many diverse strands of evidence had to be unified within a formalised structure, and linked together by expert knowledge. For this purpose, a Vesuvius ‘Event Tree’ (ET) was created to summarise in a numerical-graphical form, at different levels of detail, all the relative likelihoods relating to the genesis and style of eruption, development and nature of volcanic hazards, and the probabilities of occurrence of different volcanic risks in the next eruption crisis. The Event Tree formulation provides a logical pathway connecting generic probabilistic hazard assessment to quantitative risk evaluation. In order to achieve a complete parameterization for this all-inclusive approach, exhaustive hazard and risk models were needed, quantified with comprehensive uncertainty distributions for all factors involved, rather than simple ‘best-estimate’ or nominal values. Thus, a structured expert elicitation procedure was implemented to complement more traditional data analysis and interpretative approaches. The structure of the Vesuvius Event Tree is presented, and some of the data analysis findings and elicitation outcomes that have provided initial indicative probability distributions to be associated with each of its branches are summarized. The Event Tree extends from initiating volcanic eruption events and hazards right through to human impact and infrastructure consequences, with the complete tree and its parameterisation forming a quantitative synoptic framework for comprehensive hazard evaluation and mapping of risk impacts. The organization of the Event Tree allows easy updating, as and when new information becomes available.     

A long-term volcanic hazard event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes (Tenerife,Canary Islands)

We propose a long-term volcanic hazards event tree for Teide-Pico Viejo stratovolcanoes, two complex alkaline composite volcanoes that have erupted 1.8–3 km³ of mafic and felsic magmas from different vent sites during the last 35 ka. This is the maximum period that can be investigated from surface geology and also represents an upper time limit for the appearance of the first phonolites on that volcano. The whole process of the event tree construction was divided into three stages. The first stage included the determination of the spatial probability of vent opening for basaltic and phonolitic eruptions, based on the available geological and geophysical data. The second, involved the analysis of the different eruption types that have characterised the volcanic activity from Teide during this period. The third stage focussed on the generation of the event tree from the information obtained in the two previous steps and from the application of a probabilistic analysis on the occurrence of each possible eruption type. As for other volcanoes, the structure of the Teide-Pico Viejo Event Tree was subdivided into several steps of eruptive progression from general to more specific events. The precursory phase was assumed as an unrest episode of any geologic origin (magmatic, hydrothermal or tectonic), which could be responsible for a clear increase of volcanic activity revealed by geophysical and geochemical monitoring. According to the present characteristics of Teide-Pico Viejo and their past history, we started by considering whether the unrest episode would lead to a sector collapse or not. If the sector collapse does not occur but an eruption is expected, this could be either from the central vents or from any of the volcanoes' flanks. In any of these cases, there are several possibilities according to what has been observed in the period considered in our study. In the case that a sector collapse occurs and is followed by an eruption we considered it as a flank eruption. We conducted an experts elicitation judgement to assign probabilities to the different possibilities indicated in the event tree. We assumed long term estimations based on existing geological and historical data for the last 35 Ka, which gave us a minimum estimate as the geological record for such a long period is incomplete. However, to estimate probabilities for a short term forecast, for example during an unrest episode, we would need to include in the event tree additional information from the monitoring networks, as any possible precursors that may be identified could tell us in which direction the system will evolve. Therefore, we propose to develop future versions of the event tree to include also the precursors that might be expected on each path during the initial stages of a new eruptive event.     

The 1984 July 19 North Wales earthquake—a lower crustal continental event indicating brittle behaviour at an unusual depth

Summary. Attention has recently been focused on the structure and composition of the lower crust in continental areas. It is generally believed that, except in special circumstances, ductile behaviour below mid-crustal depths precludes the brittle processes that cause earthquakes. The 1984 July 19 earthquake in North Wales occurred at the unexpected depth of 23 km. We report here the location of the larger aftershocks and the relocation of the main shock with respect to one of them. The lower crustal depths of the events are confirmed by tests with a wide range of models. The occurrence of earthquakes at these depths may be related to low heat flow in the region.     

Biotically constrained palaeoenvironmental conditions of a mid-Holocene intertidal lagoon on the southern shore of the Arabian Gulf: evidence associated with a whale skeleton at Musaffah,Abu Dhabi,UAE

Whale remains (a left and right mandible, scapula, humerus and fragmentary radius and ulna as well as parts of the cranium and rostrum) belonging to a probable humpback whale (Megaptera cf. novaeangliae) were found in the well-described sabkha sequence exposed in the Musaffah Industrial Channel, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. More precisely, the whale remains were found in a series of sediments representing a range of lagoonal facies. The sediments surrounding the whale bones were age-dated at approximately 5200 ¹⁴C yrs BP and are therefore interpreted to correspond to the previously documented late Flandrian sea-level peak, preceding a fall in sea-level which culminated in the supratidal sabkha overprint of the carbonates. Associated with the whale remains is an assemblage of molluscs, foraminifera and ostracods. Together with the inferred presence of sea grass and algae, these facies are interpreted to indicate a very shallow subtidal to intertidal lagoonal environment. Cirripede remains found associated with the skeleton were identified as those of the whale barnacle Coronula diadema and hence had their origins with the whale. Significantly, the low species diversity of microfossils suggests that higher salinities existed in the mid-Holocene lagoon than are present in modern counterparts. This is here inferred to be related to the onset of continental aridity in Arabia during the mid-Holocene.     

Seismicity and seismic intensities in Jamaica,West Indies: A problem in risk assessment

A review of the history of earthquake observations in Jamaica is presented; there have been several high-intensity earthquakes in the last 300 years. The observed seismicity of the Jamaica region is discussed in the context of what is known of regional tectonics, and possible source regions of earthquakes are identified but a comparison between instrumentally determined seismicity and macroseismicity shows that the instrumental data are of insufficient quantity or quality to permit direct assessment of earthquake risk by conventional techniques. An alternative approach has been adopted; consideration of the macroseismic record suggests that the peak acceleration in rock with 90 per cent probability of not being exceeded in any 50-year period is of order 0.3 g but that there are very significant local variations caused by near-surface geology. Especially this applies to the capital, Kingston, and envelope response spectra are derived for shallow, intermediate and deep thickness of sediments under the city to demonstate the possibility that localized amplification may occur. A current apparent decline in the seismicity of the Jamaica region is noted but it is shown that the decline in the number of earthquakes of engineering interest is not yet statistically significant.     

A geographic information science perspective on hyperspectral remote sensing

This paper presents a brief review of hyperspectral imagery and its analysis from a perspective based in Geographic Information Science. The ten original research priorities of the University Consortium for Geographic Information Science from 1996 and the five emerging themes from 2000/2001 are used as a framework to examine different aspects of management, analysis and use of hyperspectral imagery. A GIScience perspective identifies a series of issues that can develop the utility of hyperspectral imagery and gives an agenda for research that integrates hyperspectral imagery into Geographic Information Science to the benefit of both GIScience and hyperspectral remote sensing.