Empirical evaluation of microtremor H/V spectral ratio

The objective of this work is to perform a purely empirical assessment of the actual capabilities of the horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral ratio technique to provide reliable and relevant information concerning site conditions and/or site amplification. This objective has been tackled through the homogeneous (re)processing of a large volume of earthquakes and ambient noise data recorded by different research teams in more than 200 sites located mainly in Europe, but also in the Caribbean and in Tehran. The original recordings were first gathered in a specific database with information on both the sites and recorded events. Then, for all sites close to an instrumented reference, average site-to-reference spectral ratios (“spectral ratio method” (SSR)) were derived in a homogeneous way (window selection, smoothing, signal-to-noise ratio threshold, averaging), as well as H/V ratios (“HVSRE–RF”) on earthquake recordings. H/V ratios were also obtained from noise recordings at each site (either specific measurements, or extracted from pre- or post-event noise windows). The spectral curves resulting from these three techniques were estimated reliable for a subset of 104 sites, and were thus compared in terms of fundamental frequency, amplitude and amplification bandwidth, exhibiting agreements and disagreements, for which interpretations are looked for in relation with characteristics of site conditions. The first important result consists in the very good agreement between fundamental frequencies obtained with either technique, observed for 81% of the analyzed sites. A significant part of the disagreements correspond to thick, low frequency, continental sites where natural noise level is often very low and H/V noise ratios do not exhibit any clear peak. The second important result is the absence of correlation between H/V peak amplitude and the actual site amplification measured on site-to-reference spectral ratios. There are, however, two statistically significant results about the amplitude of the H/V curve: the peak amplitude may be considered as a lower bound estimate of the actual amplification indicated by SSR (it is smaller for 79% of the 104 investigated sites), and, from another point of view, the difference in amplitude exhibits a questioning correlation with the geometrical characteristics of the sediment/basement interface: large SSR/HV differences might thus help to detect the existence of significant 2D or 3D effects.     

Seismological studies of the soufriere of St. Vincent, 1953-79: Implications for volcanic surveillance in the lesser antilles

The Soufriere of St. Vincent has been monitored for more than 25 years as part of a regional programme in the Lesser Antilles. In that time the volcano has erupted twice but our studies have shown no discernible change in regional seismicity before either event. However, very small seismic events were observed in the crater during the 1971–1972 eruption and were detected before the start of the 1979 explosive eruption; we believe that they were generated by thermally induced hydraulic fracturing within the lava mass inside the crater lake. We conclude that seismographic monitoring of Lesser Antillean volcanoes can give ambiguous results but that at least one instrument must be placed within 1 km of the vent if the earliest signs of activity are to be detected.     

Strong ground acceleration seismic hazard in Greece and neighboring regions

In an early paper [Tectonophysics 117 (1985) 259] seismic hazard in Greece was analyzed using a relatively homogeneous earthquake catalogue spanning 1900–1978 and a strong motion attenuation relationship adapted to use in Greece. Improved seismic hazard analyses are obtained here using Gumbel's asymptotic extreme value distribution applied to peak horizontal ground acceleration occurrence, but now taking into account the increased length and quality of earthquake catalogue data spanning 1900–1999 and the burgeoning information on earthquake strong motion data and attenuation relationships appropriate for Europe and, explicitly, Greece. Seismic acceleration hazard results tabulated for six cities reveal (e.g. using arbitrarily the 50-year p.g.a. with 90% probability of not being exceeded) changes of about 10% in the new calculated values: two cities show an increase and four a decrease. These are relatively small and reassuring adjustments.Inspection of the available attenuation relationships leads to a preference for the models of Theodulidis and Papazachos, particularly with the model modification to produce a ‘stiff soil’ site relationship, as these relationships explicitly exploit the Greek strong motion database. Isoacceleration maps are produced for Greece as a whole from each attenuation relationship inspected. The final set of maps based on the Theodulidis and Papazachos models provide a foundation for comparison with the Seismic Hazard Zones adopted in the New Greek Seismic Code where scope can be found to modify zone shape and the level at which p.g.a.s are set. It should be noted that the generation of the present isoacceleration maps is based on a seismogenic zone-free methodology, independent of any Euclidean zoning assumptions.     

Emergency planning and mitigation at Vesuvius: A new evidence-based approach

Disasters from explosive volcanic eruptions are infrequent and experience in emergency planning and mitigation for such events remains limited. The need for urgently developing more robust methods for risk assessment and decision making in volcanic crises has become increasingly apparent as world populations continue to expand in areas of active explosive volcanism. Nowhere is this more challenging than at Vesuvius, Italy, with hundreds of thousands of people living on the flanks of one of the most dangerous volcanoes in the world. We describe how a new paradigm, evidence-based volcanology, has been applied in EXPLORIS to contribute to crisis planning and management for when the volcano enters its next state of unrest, as well as in long-term land-use planning. The analytical approach we adopted enumerates and quantifies all the processes and effects of the eruptive hazards of the volcano known to influence risk, a scientific challenge that combines field data on the vulnerability of the built environment and humans in past volcanic disasters with theoretical research on the state of the volcano, and including evidence from the field on previous eruptions as well as numerical simulation modelling of eruptive processes. Formal probabilistic reasoning under uncertainty and a decision analysis approach have provided the basis for the development of an event tree for a future range of eruption types with probability paths and hypothetical casualty outcomes for risk assessment. The most likely future eruption scenarios for emergency planning were derived from the event tree and elaborated upon from the geological and historical record. Modelling the impacts in these scenarios and quantifying the consequences for the circumvesuvian area provide realistic assessments for disaster planning and for showing the potential risk–benefit of mitigation measures, the main one being timely evacuation, but include for consideration protecting buildings against dilute, low dynamic pressure surges, and temporary roof supports in the most vulnerable buildings, as well as hardening infrastructure and lifelines. This innovative work suggests that risk-based methods could have an important role in crisis management at cities on volcanoes and small volcanic islands.     

Biotically constrained palaeoenvironmental conditions of a mid-Holocene intertidal lagoon on the southern shore of the Arabian Gulf: evidence associated with a whale skeleton at Musaffah,Abu Dhabi,UAE

Whale remains (a left and right mandible, scapula, humerus and fragmentary radius and ulna as well as parts of the cranium and rostrum) belonging to a probable humpback whale (Megaptera cf. novaeangliae) were found in the well-described sabkha sequence exposed in the Musaffah Industrial Channel, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. More precisely, the whale remains were found in a series of sediments representing a range of lagoonal facies. The sediments surrounding the whale bones were age-dated at approximately 5200 ¹⁴C yrs BP and are therefore interpreted to correspond to the previously documented late Flandrian sea-level peak, preceding a fall in sea-level which culminated in the supratidal sabkha overprint of the carbonates. Associated with the whale remains is an assemblage of molluscs, foraminifera and ostracods. Together with the inferred presence of sea grass and algae, these facies are interpreted to indicate a very shallow subtidal to intertidal lagoonal environment. Cirripede remains found associated with the skeleton were identified as those of the whale barnacle Coronula diadema and hence had their origins with the whale. Significantly, the low species diversity of microfossils suggests that higher salinities existed in the mid-Holocene lagoon than are present in modern counterparts. This is here inferred to be related to the onset of continental aridity in Arabia during the mid-Holocene.     

Landscape Models and Explanation in Landscape Ecology—A Space for Generative Landscape Science?

Further development of process‐based spatial models is needed to facilitate explanation in landscape ecology. We discuss the dual modeling goals of prediction and explanation and identify challenges faced in explaining landscape patterns. These challenges are especially acute in attempts to explain patterns that result from complex adaptive systems. We compare examples of two process models used to describe landscape changes in Yellowstone National Park as a consequence of predator‐prey interactions. Generative landscape science is offered as a complementary approach to explanation, combining models of candidate processes that are believed to give rise to observed patterns with empirical observations.     

Long term exposure to respirable volcanic ash on Montserrat: a time series simulation

Frequent ash fallout from long-lived eruptions (with active phases greater than 5 years) may lead to local populations experiencing unacceptably high cumulative exposures to respirable particulate matter. Ash from Montserrat has been shown to contain significant levels of cristobalite and other reactive agents that are associated with an increased risk of developing pneumoconiosis (including silicosis) and other long-term health problems. There are a number of difficulties associated with estimating risks in populations due to uncertain and wide ranging individual exposures, change in behaviour with time and the natural variation in individual response. Present estimates of risk in workers and other population groups are simplifications based on a limited number of exposure measurements taken on Montserrat (1996–1999), and exposure−response curves from epidemiological studies of coal workers exposed to siliceous dust. In this paper we present a method for calculating the long-term cumulative exposure to cristobalite from volcanic ash by Monte Carlo simulation. Code has been written to generate synthetic time series for volcanic activity, rainfall, ash deposition and erosion to give daily ash deposit values and cristobalite fraction at a range of locations. The daily mean personal exposure for PM₁₀ and cristobalite is obtained by sampling from a probability distribution, with distribution parameters dependent on occupation, ground deposit depth and daily weather conditions. Output from multiple runs is processed to calculate the exceedance probability for cumulative exposure over a range of occupation types, locations and exposure periods. Results are interpreted in terms of current occupational standards, and epidemiological exposure−response functions for silicosis are applied to quantify the long-term health risk. Assuming continuing volcanic activity, median risk of silicosis (profusion 1/0 or higher) for an average adult after 20 years continuous exposure is estimated to be approximately 0.5% in northern Montserrat to 1.6% in Cork Hill. The occupational group with the highest exposure to ash are gardeners, with a corresponding 2% to 4% risk of silicosis. In situations where opportunities for in-depth exposure studies are limited, computer simulations provide a good indication of risk based on current expert knowledge. By running the code for a range of input scenarios, the cost-benefit of mitigation measures (such as a programme of active ash clearance) can be estimated. Results also may be used to identify situations where full exposure studies or fieldwork would be beneficial. Editorial responsibility: J Stix     

The 1984 July 19 North Wales earthquake—a lower crustal continental event indicating brittle behaviour at an unusual depth

Summary. Attention has recently been focused on the structure and composition of the lower crust in continental areas. It is generally believed that, except in special circumstances, ductile behaviour below mid-crustal depths precludes the brittle processes that cause earthquakes. The 1984 July 19 earthquake in North Wales occurred at the unexpected depth of 23 km. We report here the location of the larger aftershocks and the relocation of the main shock with respect to one of them. The lower crustal depths of the events are confirmed by tests with a wide range of models. The occurrence of earthquakes at these depths may be related to low heat flow in the region.