松辽盆地十屋油田营城组油气分布

应用试油与压裂测试分析法、流体组成成份分析法、生产动态分析法和物质平衡分析法对十屋油田营城组营Ⅰ、营Ⅱ、营Ⅲ和营Ⅴ油层组的油气分布进行了精细研究。结果表明, 气层发育在十屋逆断层的北部地区, 分布在八屋断裂的两侧; 营Ⅰ和营Ⅱ油层发育在十屋逆断层北部D3和B7井区; 营Ⅲ和营Ⅴ油层发育于十屋油田东部, 十屋逆断层两侧的A24、A25、A16及A11井区; 油气同层只在南部和北部的少数井区分布。     

基于最优加权组合的甘肃金川矿14行风井变形预测

金川14行风井直接关系到矿山的安全生产。本文建立了3种单一预测模型,并根据最优加权组合原理得到了最优加权组合预测模型。最优加权组合预测模型包含了单一模型的有效信息,提高了变形的预测精度。最优加权组合预测模型的模型精度与权重分配与单一模型的选取有关。作为一种短期预测模型,得出金川14行风井在近两个半年会保持稳态变形,不会出现大的突变。     

滇西地区地壳上地幔电性结构与地壳构造活动的关系

本文根据滇西地区18个大地电磁测深点资料的数据处理和分析结果,对测区深部导电率在纵、横向上的变化特征进行了研究。结果表明:滇西地区深部电性为多层结构,大致可分四至五个电性结构层;深部电性结构横向变化大,明显受区域构造控制;该区上部地壳内普遍存在低阻层;上地幔高导层明显存在两个隆起区,一个以剑川—鹤庆为中心呈北北西向展布的隆起区,另一个以腾冲—潞西为轴呈南北向展布的隆起区。 本文还讨论了地壳上地幔电性结构与大地构造的关系,滇西北裂陷区盆地的形成,以及该区地震活动与深部构造的关系     

基于Low rank近似的黏弹性介质衰减补偿微地震逆时定位与裂缝成像

真实地下介质具有黏弹性,地震波在传播过程中会发生耗散与频散.忽视黏弹性介质的吸收衰减效应,逆时延拓过程中地震波将会出现振幅减弱、相位失真等现象,无法准确定位震源真实位置,因此需要对黏弹性介质中传播的波场进行衰减补偿,并通过采用合适的成像算子对微地震震源进行定位与裂缝成像.本文基于耗散与频散解耦的分数阶黏弹性波动方程模拟...     

利用GRACE数据联合新型尺度因子校正法提高陆地水储量变化准确性

本文围绕GRACE数据在信号处理过程中存在泄露误差开展了探索性研究.第一,在传统尺度因子法的基础上,根据模型与CSR-SHc数据的均方根误差和相关性赋予权重,构建了新型尺度因子校正法.第二,以长江流域为例,评估该方法的校正效果,研究结果表明:新型尺度因子校正法校正结果综合GLDAS(Global Land Data A...     

A comparative study of extensive machine learning models for predicting long-term monthly rainfall with an ensemble of climatic and meteorological predictors

Rainfall prediction is of vital importance in water resources management. Accurate long-term rainfall prediction remains an open and challenging problem. Machine learning techniques, as an increasingly popular approach, provide an attractive alternative to traditional methods. The main objective of this study was to improve the prediction accuracy of machine learning-based methods for monthly rainfall, and to improve the understanding of the role of large-scale climatic variables and local meteorological variables in rainfall prediction. One regression model autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) and five state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms, including artificial neural networks, support vector machine, random forest (RF), gradient boosting regression, and dual-stage attention-based recurrent neural network, were implemented for monthly rainfall prediction over 25 stations in the East China region. The results showed that the ML models outperformed ARIMA model, and RF relatively outperformed other models. Local meteorological variables, humidity, and sunshine duration, were the most important predictors in improving prediction accuracy. 4-month lagged Western North Pacific Monsoon had higher importance than other large-scale climatic variables. The overall output of rainfall prediction was scalable and could be readily generalized to other regions.     

顾及有效角动量与IGS超快解数据的极移预报方法

极移高精度预报对卫星实时定轨、深空探测器导航等应用至关重要.本文提出了一种联合有效角动量(Effective Angular Momentum, EAM)与国际全球卫星导航系统服务组织(International GNSS Service, IGS)提供的超快解数据进行极移预报的方法.该方法基于IGS超快解数据得到的极移第1天预报值, 对引入EAM得到的极移预报结果进行校正, 获得联合预报值.首先, 基于LS(Least Squares)+AR(Auto-Regressive)模型实现了引入EAM的极移预报, 相对国际地球自转与参考系统服务组织(International Earth Rotation and Reference Systems Service, IERS)提供的公报A数据, 在超短期(第1~10天)预报跨度可以得到更高精度的极移预报结果, 其中大气和海洋角动量发挥了主要作用.其次, 鉴于IGS超快解数据精度高、更新快的特点, 以IGS超快解为基础数据, 基于LS+AR模型可以得到极移第1天预报值, 其精度显著优于IERS公报A的极移第1天预报值.最后, 利用第1天预报值对顾及有效角动量的预报结果进行校正获得了联合预报值, 进一步提高了超短期极移预报精度(尤其是第1~5天).2020年7月24日—2022年1月30日间的联合预报结果表明: 第1~20天的预报值总体优于IERS公报A的预报值.其中, 第1~10天的预报精度显著提升, 在预报第1天, X、Y方向预报值相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达39.5%~62.3%和24.5%~51.9%;在预报第10天, 相对公报A预报值的精度提升分别可达28.0%~28.9%和21.9%~23.4%.

     

小江断裂带南段新寨盆地新构造运动特征

小江断裂带是新构造时期以来十分活跃的活动断裂带,沿线地震活动频繁,新寨盆地是其控制下发育的串珠状盆地之一.通过野外第四纪地质与构造地质填图,LiDAR扫描,无人机移动摄影测量等手段,对新寨盆地内部第四系地层分布和控盆断裂以及其反映的构造活动期次进行研究,认为新近纪以挤压为主的应力过后,早更新世晚期小江断裂南段受元谋运动...     

基于WebGIS的区域震害快速评估系统设计与实现

在进行大规模城乡震害预测工作中,需要使用与传统预测方式不同的新模型及新方法,以便实现震害快速预测及结果共享。利用人口普查数据等基础数据库,根据人口数据及灾害损失的关系模型,基于WebGIS技术,采用三层体系网络架构(由后台数据库、应用服务器(地图服务器)+Web服务器、客户端组成),利用VB+ArcObject服务器组件开发技术,通过动态链接库技术实现了在Ar-cIMS下的地图动态更新、动态预测及动态发布功能,实现了具有B/S结构的震害预测管理信息系统。该系统具有投入少、数据自动预测、定期更新且易于获取等优点,实现了地震震害信息共享     

Characteristics of near-fault ground motion containing velocity pulses

There are many reports about the research on near-fault velocity pulses, which focus on the generation of velocity pulse and simplify the velocity pulse so as to be used in the seismic design of structure, However few researches have put emphasis on the characteristics of near-fault ground motions containing velocity pulses, especially the characteristics relevant with the design response spectrum prescribed by the code. Through collection of a large number of near-fault records containing velocity pulses, the response spectra and the characteristic periods of records containing no pulses are compared with those of records containing pulses. Response spectra of near-fault records are compared with standard spectra given by code; furthermore, the response spectra and the characteristic periods of each earthquake are compared with that given by code. The result shows that at long periods （longer than 1.5 s）, the response spectrum of pulse-containing records is bigger than the response spectrum of no-pulse-containing records; when the characteristic period of near-fault records is calculated, the method that does not fix frequency is more reasonable because the T1 and T2 have a lagging tendency; regardless of the site Ⅰ and site Ⅱ, the characteristic period of pulse-containing records is over twice bigger than the characteristic period given by the code,