CAUSAL ANALYSIS AND NUMERICAL MODELING OF THE INSHORE INTENSIFICATION OF SUPER TYPHOON “HATO”

This paper comprehensively analyzes the characteristics and cause of the inshore intensification of super typhoon "Hato", the 13 th super typhoon in 2017. The aspects of typhoon structure, evolution of large-scale circulation and physical quantity field are analyzed using observation data from the Guangdong Automatic Station, Shenzhen Doppler Radar data, NCEP 1°×1° reanalysis data, NCEP 0.25°×0.25° sea surface temperature(SST) data, etc.Additionally, in order to investigate the influence of SST change on the intensity of "Hato", the WRF model and ECMWF 0.125°×0.125° reanalysis data are combined to conduct 3 sensitivity tests on"Hato". The results show that the favorable conditions for inshore intensification of "Hato"included the strengthening and westward extension of the subtropical high, continuous increase of low level moisture transport, an anomalous warm SST area north of 20°N in the South China Sea, an extreme divergence value in the northern South China Sea exceeding 6 ×10-5 s-1, and vertical environmental wind shear between 1.1 m/s-4.8 m/s. The intensity of"Hato"was very sensitive to changes in SST. When the SST rose or dropped by 2℃, the minimum central pressure of the typhoon changed by about 13 hPa or 11 hPa,respectively. SST indirectly influenced the intensity of the typhoon through affecting latent heat transport and sensible heat transport.     

NUMERICAL PREDICTION OF AN EXTREME RAINSTORM OVER THE PEARL RIVER DELTA REGION ON 7 MAY 2017 BASED ON WRF-ENKF

An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF-EnKF) is used to explore the effectiveness of the assimilation of surface observation data in an extreme local rainstorm over the Pearl River Delta region on 7 May 2017. Before the occurrence of rainstorm, the signals of weather forecasts in this case are too weak to be predicted by numerical weather model, but the surface temperature over the urban area are high. The results of this study show that the wind field, temperature, and water vapor are obviously adjusted by assimilating surface data of 10-m wind, 2-m temperature, and 2-m water vapor mixing ratio at 2300 BST 6 May, especially below the height of 2 km. The southerly wind over the Pearl River Delta region is enhanced, and the convergence of wind over the northern Guangzhou city is also enhanced. Additionally, temperature, water vapor mixing ratio and pseudoequivalent potential temperature are obviously increased over the urban region, providing favorable conditions for the occurrence of heavy precipitation. After assimilation, the predictions of 12-h rainfall amount, temperature, and relative humidity are significantly improved, and the rainfall intensity and distribution in this case can be successfully reproduced. Moreover, sensitivity tests suggest that the assimilation of 2-m temperature is the key to predict this extreme rainfall and just assimilating data of surface wind or water vapor is not workable, implying that urban heat island effect may be an important factor in this extreme rainstorm.     

中国中东部区域TRMM降水产品降尺度研究及其时空特征分析

该研究以中国中东部区域(17°～50°N,98°～135°E)为研究范围,在前人研究基础上,根据水汽与降水之间的关系,基于MOD05水汽产品,采用偏最小二乘法,对中国中东部区域2001—2010年10 a平均TRMM3B43_V 7月降水产品进行降尺度,旨在得到空间分辨率为1 km×1 km的月降水空间分布。通过比较分析,发现该降尺度模型能大幅提高TRMM产品空间分辨率,估算结果平均相对误差为15.35%,与地面观测较接近,能体现中国中东部区域降水宏观分布趋势,且估算结果精度高于前人基于归一化植被指数(NDVI)的降尺度模型,能满足降水产品的精细化需求。     

苏南典型区土壤基本性质的时空变化--以昆山市为例

以昆山市为例对苏南典型区土壤基本性质的时空变化进行了研究。结果表明:(1)与第二次土壤普查相比,该区土壤酸化严重,土壤上层pH值的平均值由7.20下降到6.42,土壤上层pH值小于6.0的样点多达36.51%;土壤有机质含量呈下降趋势,土壤上层有机质含量平均值由31.4 g/kg下降到28.3 g/kg,小于20 g/kg的土壤样品由0.56%上升到11.11%;速效磷含量总体上呈现明显的升高趋势,平均值由6.4mg/kg上升到89.1 mg/kg;阳离子交换量(CEC)由19.3 cmol/kg下降为17.8 cmol/kg。(2)不同功能区、不同地貌区及不同剖面层次的土壤基本性质存在较为明显的空间变化。     

三参数小波及其在地震资料分析中的应用

提出了一类含有三个可调参数的分析小波（称为三参数小波）,通过选择这三个参数,可使其最适合于所给定的问题．Morlet小波及改进的Morlet小波是其特例．通过对三参数小波中的参数加以约束,可以获得一类新的近似解析小波．论证了通过恰当的选择参数,三参数小波不仅适合于分析包含慢变频率和振幅分量的信号,而且也适合于包含快变分量的信号．以三参数小波为分析小波,提出了一种用于薄互层地震资料分析的方法．该方法能够刻画薄互层的沉积旋回,也能研究薄互层内部的局部结构,并采用模型资料验证了方法的有效性．     

鄂尔多斯盆地中西部深部流体活动及其对奥陶系天然气形成的热作用

鄂尔多斯是一个非常稳定的克拉通盆地,深部流体一直被认为是禁区。通过构造学、火成岩岩石学、矿物学、同位素以及热史分析等方法,首次系统证实了鄂尔多斯盆地中西部发生过强烈的深部流体活动,并分析了其形成机制和对奥陶系天然气形成的热演化作用。在中生代晚期,祁连构造域的挤压作用导致盆地西缘发生强烈逆冲推覆、断裂活动及三次大规模的深部流体上涌。这些流体在构造应力作用下主要沿J/T、O/C不整合面运移至盆地中部。流体携带了大量深部热能,使奥陶系上部古地温升高约50℃,并将其中的碳酸盐岩生烃速度提高了至少32倍。最终,深部流体一方面导致奥陶系生烃量显著增加,另一方面也降低了天然气的散失,有助于其聚集成藏。深部流体使鄂尔多斯盆地中西部奥陶系天然气成因复杂化,另外它对深入探索铀和其它金属矿床的形成及盆地演化也具有重要意义。     

藏东巴青县北部酉西岩组构造片理形成及构造意义

西藏巴青县以北酉西岩组主要由石英构造片岩、钠长石英构造片岩、白云母石英构造片岩组成,构造片理为近水平韧性剪切作用产物。宏观上构造片理构成了宽缓的背形、向形褶皱构造,构造片理上广布一期透入性拉伸线理,将构造片理展平,分布在透入性片理上的线理具明显优选方位,方向为280~100°。根据微观构造分析,韧性剪切指向为自西向东运动,构造片岩内发育多硅白云母。多硅白云母电子探针分析结果认为其形成环境为低温高压蓝片岩相,变质温度确定为320~500℃、压力0·6~1·1GPa。多硅白云母40Ar/39Ar测年结果为(230±1)Ma,为中三叠世末期。酉西岩组构造片理(韧性剪切作用)与查吾拉—吉塘印支期构造岩浆带形成密切相关。     

Report on 34 Ga SHRIMP Zircon Age from the Yuntaishan Geopark in Jiaozuo, Henan Province

1 Introduction According to recent researches, the North China Craton consists of three parts: the eastern block, western block and central zone (Zhao, 2001; Wilde et al., 2002). Paleoarchean continental blocks and zircon residuals have only been found in a few regions, such as Anshan, East Liaoning (Liu et al., 1992; Song et al., 1996; Wan et al., 2002, 2005), Caozhuang, East Hebei (Liu et al., 1992) and Xinyang, West Henan (Zheng et al., 2004), which are mainly distributed in the east…     

西北地区城镇化建设中雨水利用探讨

城镇化是西北地区发展的必由之路,然而最大的自然障碍因素是水资源严重短缺。国外较早地开展并已有效地利用了城市雨水,而我国起步比较晚。西北地区在推进城镇化建设中,宜把城市雨水资源化作为城市节水的方向之一。城市雨水资源的利用对西北地区城市可持续发展有重要的意义。     

人工智能在飞机颠簸预报中的应用进展及未来趋势展望

飞机颠簸对飞机运行安全及旅客舒适度具有很大危害,提高飞机颠簸的预报准确率对于减轻人员伤害和财产损失具有重要意义,且一直是航空气象研究的重点领域。随着观测手段的丰富和科学技术的进步,飞机颠簸预报也取得了长足发展。本文首先从定性预报和定量预报的角度对国内外飞机颠簸预报的主要方法,特别是人工智能(AI)方法在其中的最新应用进行了综述。在此基础上,归纳总结出AI用于飞机湍流预报存在的主要问题和未来的重点研究方向：1)飞机实况数据的开放共享以及多源湍流数据的融合构建问题;2)基于人工智能构建飞机颠簸预报模型的可解释性及物理机制问题;3)基于人工智能构建飞机颠簸的集合预报问题。最后,提出了气象领域未来第三代人工智能的发展思路。