Testing an earthquake prediction algorithm

A test to evaluate earthquake prediction algorithms is being applied to a Russian algorithm known asM8 TheM8 algorithm makes intermediate term predictions for earthquakes to occur in a large circle, based on integral counts of transient seismicity in the circle. In a retroactive prediction for the period January 1, 1985 to July 1, 1991 the algorithm as configured for the forward test would have predicted eight of ten strong earthquakes in the test area. A null hypothesis, based on random assignment of predictions, predicts eight earthquakes in 2.87% of the trials. The forward test began July 1, 1991 and will run through December 31, 1997. As of July 1, 1995, the algorithm had forward predicted five out of nine earthquakes in the test area, which success ratio would have been achieved in 53% of random trials with the null hypothesis.     

Experimental pressure solution compaction of synthetic halite/calcite aggregates

Experimental observations are reported of weakening of sediment-like aggregates by addition of hard particles. Sieved mixtures of calcite and halite grains are experimentally compacted in drained pressure cells in the presence of a saturated aqueous solution. The individual halite grains deform easily by pressure solution creep whereas calcite grains act as hard objects and resist compaction. The fastest rate of compaction of the mixed aggregate is not obtained for a 100% halite aggregate but for a content of halite grains between 45% and 75%. We propose that this unusual compaction behavior reflects the competition between two mechanisms at the grain scale: intergranular pressure solution at grain contacts and grain boundary healing between halite grains that prevent further compaction.     

Holocene-emerged notches and tectonic uplift along the Jalisco coast, Southwest Mexico

This paper presents the preliminary results from a study of Holocene-emerged shorelines, marine notches, and their tectonic implications along the Jalisco coast. The Pacific coast of Jalisco, SW Mexico, is an active tectonic margin. This coast has been the site of two of the largest earthquakes to occur in Mexico this century: the 1932 (Mw 8.2) Jalisco earthquake and the 1995 (Mw 8.0) Colima earthquake. Measurement and preliminary radiocarbon dating of emergent paleoshorelines along the Jalisco coast provide the first constraints upon the timing for tectonic uplift. Along this coastline, uplifted Holocene marine notches and wave-cut platforms occur at elevations ranging from ca. 1 to 4.5 m amsl. In situ intertidal organisms dated with radiocarbon, the first ever reported for the Jalisco area, provide preliminary results that record tectonic uplift during at least the past 1300 years BP at an average rate of about 3 mm/year. We propose a model in which coseismic subsidence produced by offshore earthquakes is rapidly recovered during the postseismic and interseismic periods. The long-term period is characterized by slow tectonic uplift of the Jalisco coast. We found no evidence of coastal interseismic and long-term subsidence along the Jalisco coast.     

Martian Topography: Scaling, Craters, and High-Order Statistics

The high-order structure functions of Mars topography reveal three specific ranges of scales: (1) scaling range at small scales where the structure functions exhibit scaling behavior; (2) transition range where the structure functions continue to grow but do not reveal scaling; and (3) saturation range at large scales where the structure functions saturate. The scaling and saturation ranges are explored in detail in respect to scaling and intermittency. Analysis of the Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data and computer simulations suggest that there are two potential contributors to the small-scale scaling: (i) scale-invariant surface formation; and (ii) effects of discrete morphological forms such as craters. The crater effect also provides an explanation for the large-scale intermittency revealed using the normalized structure functions within the saturation range, which cannot be explained by the ‘scale-invariant’ concept. Overall, the obtained results suggest that the “crater” contribution to the structure function behavior often dominates over the effect of the scale-invariant surface formation.     

The first record of “spelaeoid” bears in Arctic Siberia

For a long time, “spelaeoid” (cave-bear-like) bears, Ursus (Spelearctos) spp., were believed to be almost purely European animals. Their geographic range has recently been extended to the east, in southern Siberia, Transbaikalia, Kirghizia, Mongolia and Korea. Two unexpected new findings, presented here in detail, significantly change existing views on the distribution of cave bears; both were found in North-Eastern Siberia, far beyond the Arctic Circle, more than 1500 km to the north-east of the previously accepted range.One of the fossils is a mandible, found near the town of Cherskiy at 68.73°N, 161.38°E. The analysis of local geology and accompanying mammal fossils suggests that it comes from the Olyorian Fauna (Early to early Middle Pleistocene). Morphologically, the Cherskiy mandible is closest to Ursus savini, a small middle Pleistocene cave bear from the British Cromer Forest-bed Formation, but differs in having a slightly more advanced dentition, and thus it is described as a new subspecies Ursus savini nordostensis. Another newly recognized fossil of the “spelaeoid” bear is an astragalus found at the Oskhordokh site at 67.54°N, 135.67°E, on a large gravel bar on the right bank of the Adycha River. This specimen is attributed to Ursus cf. deningeri.The paper also presents an interesting example of the interaction between classical and “molecular” palaeontology.The new finds significantly change existing ideas on the ecology and evolution of cave bears, some of the most remarkable members of the extinct Pleistocene megafauna.     

Variations of the aerosol concentration and chemical composition over the arid steppe zone of Southern Russia in summer

Variations in the surface aerosol over the arid steppe zone of Southern Russia have been measured. The parameters of atmospheric aerosol (mass concentration, both dispersed and elemental compositions) and meteorological parameters were measured in Tsimlaynsk raion (Rostov oblast). The chemical composition of aerosol particles in the atmospheric surface layer has been determined, and the coefficients of enrichment of elements with respect to clarkes in the Earth’s crust have been calculated. It is shown that, in summer, arid aerosols are transported from both alkaline and sandy soils of Kalmykia to the air basin over the observation zone. Aerosol particles in the surface air layer over this region have been found to contain the products of combustion of oil, coal, and ethylized fuel. These combustion products make a small contribution to the total mass concentration of atmospheric aerosol; however, they are most hazardous to the health of people because of their sizes and heavy-metal contents. A high concentration of submicron sulfur-containing aerosol particles of chemocondensation nature has been recorded. Sources of aerosol of both natural and anthropogenic origins in southern Russia are discussed.     

AMSR-E sea surface temperature (SST) charts enhancement

Microwave satellite images used for retrieving sea surface temperatures often have such distortions as noise and blurring of the thermal fronts. An image processing approach based on the Mumford-Shah model of optimal image approximation is considered for the solution to this problem. We divide images into flat areas and frontal zones, and then process these areas separately. Image fragmentation is based on automatic detection of the thermal front lines. SST enhancement in frontal zones is achieved by using image deconvolution methods. It has been shown that SST errors in high gradient areas reach 1–3 °C. The proposed approach can decrease this discrepancy.     

Erosion processes in karst landscapes of the Russian plain northern taiga,based on digital elevation modeling

This paper considers the problems of the potential development of erosion processes in the natural landscapes of northern taiga in the Russian plain. It is considered that in forest ecosystems, erosion processes are slow and are weakly reflected in the terrain. However, the situation changes radically if the vegetation cover integrity is violated, which is inevitable with the modern methods of developing northern territories. Furthermore, global changes in average annual temperatures and the occurrence of karst processes may be the reason behind the development of erosion processes. The authors suggest a method for determining territories with a varying occurrence probability of erosional processes, based on digital elevation modelling. The territory of the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve (Arkhangelsk region) was chosen as the test plot. Direct field studies were previously used to detect exogenous geological processes in this territory. The authors were the first to suggest digital elevation modelling as a method that allows determining the potential danger of erosion in karst landscapes of the northern taiga. The geomorphometric studies resulted in the determination of areas with the greatest and lowest occurrence probability of erosion processes in the Pinezhsky Nature Reserve. It was established that the most significant erosion type was linear erosion, represented by incised river valleys and karst ravines. Sheet erosion is less significant and occurs as sinkholes, local declines, and chasms over the valleys of subterranean rivers.