Smoothing and high risk areas detection in space-time disease mapping: a comparison of P-splines,autoregressive, and moving average models

Recently, several models have been proposed for smoothing risks in disease mapping. These models consider different ways of introducing both spatial and temporal dependence as well as spatio-temporal interactions. In this work, a comparison among some autoregressive, moving average, and P-spline models is performed. Firstly, brain cancer mortality data are used to analyze the degree of smoothness introduced by these models. Secondly, two separate simulation studies (one model-based and the other model-free) are carried out to evaluate the model performance in terms of bias, variability, sensitivity, and specificity. We conclude that P-spline models seem to be a good alternative to autoregressive and moving average models when analyzing highly sparse disease mapping data.     

Modern modes of provenance and dispersal of terrigenous sediments in the North Pacific and Bering Sea: implications and perspectives for palaeoenvironmental reconstructions

During expedition 202 aboard the RV Sonne in 2009, 39 seafloor surface sediment sites were sampled over a wide sector of the North Pacific and adjoining Bering Sea. The data served to infer land–ocean linkages of terrigenous sediment supply in terms of major sources and modes of sediment transport within an over-regional context. This is based on an integrated approach dealing with grain-size analysis, bulk mineralogy and clay mineralogy in combination with statistical data evaluation (end-member modelling of grain-size data, fuzzy cluster analysis of mineralogical data). The findings on clay mineralogy served to update those of earlier work extracted from the literature. Today, two processes of terrigenous sediment supply prevail in the study area: far-distance aeolian sediment supply to the pelagic North Pacific, and hemipelagic sediment dispersal from nearby land sources via ocean currents along the continental margins and island arcs. Aeolian particles show the finest grain sizes (clay and fine silt), whereas hemipelagic sediments have high abundances of coarse silt. Exposed sites on seamounts and the continental slope are partly swept by strong currents, leading to residual enrichment of fine sand. Four sediment sources can be distinguished on the basis of distinct index minerals revealed by statistical data analysis: dust plumes from central Asia (quartz, illite), altered materials from the volcanic regions of Kamchatka and the Aleutian Arc (smectite), detritus from the Alaskan Cordillera (chlorite, hornblende), and fluvial detritus from far-eastern Siberia and the Alaska mainland (quartz, feldspar, illite). These findings confirm those of former studies but considerably expand the geographic range of this suite of proxies as far south as 39°N in the open North Pacific. The present integrated methodological approach proved useful in identifying the major modern processes of terrigenous sediment supply to the study region. This aspect deserves attention in the selection of sediment core sites for future palaeoenvironmental reconstructions related to aeolian and glacial dynamics, as well as the recognition of palaeo-ocean circulation patterns in general.     

Microbiological and chitinoclastic activities associated withPenaeus setiferus

Analysis of microbiological and chitinase activities relative to the white shrimpPenaeus setiferus, and its chitinoclastic endosymbionts, have demonstrated the relevance of total chitinolytic processes in penaeid biology. Microorganisms may serve as a direct source of nutrients for the animal as well as in the elaboration of extracellularin situ chitinase enzymes. The enzyme produced by the predominant gut bacteria,Beneckea neptuna, is a moderately actively inducible chitinase while the shrimp has an indigenous constitutive chitinase and chitobiase system. Factors of temperature, pH, ion inhibition and reducing sugar ratios have been compared for the bacterial and animal enzymes. This dual enzyme system suggests that metabolic chitin transformation may play a vital role in crustacean metabolism.     

A study of the subarctic boundary region in the Western North Pacific

During autumn 1968 an oceanographic investigation was conducted in the region of the Subarctic boundary between 155°E and 180°. The geostrophic flow of the upper 500 m was remarkably similar in direction; hence the salinity-minimum, Intermediate water must have the same path of flow as water at the surface. A water mass analysis revealed a decrease in the percentage of Subarctic water to the south and east, plus an increase in the homogeneity of water to the east, which supports Reid's conclusions that the salinity minimum results mainly from lateral mixing in the pycnocline in this region. Salinity at the minimum increases toward the south and east, and the density at this level also increases slightly from the western to the central Pacific, perhaps as a result of unequal vertical mixing above and below the minimum.     

Analysis of extreme temperatures for four sites across Peninsular Spain

Statistical analyses regarding climate studies have often used the average temperature as one of the main variables. However, the tails of the respective distributions are also crucial and have become increasingly considered in recent years. As the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in its fourth assessment report (IPCC 2007) states, ??the type, frequency and intensity of extreme events are expected to change as Earth??s climate changes??. In this paper, the focus is on the statistical behaviour of extreme (maximum and minimum) values of temperature, both in winter and summer. Under the framework of the Extreme Value Theory, the methodology of block maxima is employed. The generalised extreme value distribution, allowing for a linear trend in the location parameter, is fitted to data in order to capture the time tendency in the non-stationary processes. We are able to approximate expected values with a determined probability and to identify time trends of such events. Particularly, an increasing time trend in maximum and minimum temperature is generally detected which could be of great concern to public and private sectors.     

Sunrise Hill unconformity: A newly discovered regional hiatus between Archaean granites and greenstones in the northeastern Pilbara Craton

Contacts between Archaean granites and greenstones in the northeastern part of the Pilbara Craton have been described as intrusive and tectonic. New field observations in the Shay Gap region demonstrate that greenstones of the Gorge Creek Group unconformably overlie the Muccan and Warrawagine batholiths. Regionally, the unconformity is marked by a persistent but relatively thin basal clastic sequence, locally with a granite boulder conglomerate, overlain by ore‐bearing banded iron‐formation, fine‐grained clastic rocks and chert. The granite basement is dated at 3443 ± 6 Ma. The precise age of the hiatus is unknown but its maximum effect might have been the removal of a substantial thickness of Early to Middle Archaean strata.     

Development mechanism for the landslide at Xinlu Village,Chongqing, China

Due to the continuous and intense rainfall from June 26 to 28, 2016, Xinlu Village in Ganshui Town, Qijiang District, Chongqing, experienced a unitary-slip landslide at approximately UTC+8 19:30 on June 28. This landslide disrupted the Chuan-Qian railway and damaged four residential buildings. To analyze and rehabilitate the landslide, the engineering geology, hydrological conditions, and deformation instability mechanism of this landslide were investigated and comprehensively analyzed based on an in situ survey, geophysical drilling, and a laboratory quick-shearing test. The results show that the landslide is a typical gradual progressive landslide.     

Forecasting of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin by NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) of IMD – an evaluation

An objective NWP-based cyclone prediction system (CPS) was implemented for the operational cyclone forecasting work over the Indian seas. The method comprises of five forecast components, namely (a) Cyclone Genesis Potential Parameter (GPP), (b) Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) technique for cyclone track prediction, (c) cyclone intensity prediction, (d) rapid intensification, and (e) predicting decaying intensity after the landfall. GPP is derived based on dynamical and thermodynamical parameters from the model output of IMD operational Global Forecast System. The MME technique for the cyclone track prediction is based on multiple linear regression technique. The predictor selected for the MME are forecast latitude and longitude positions of cyclone at 12-hr intervals up to 120 hours forecasts from five NWP models namely, IMD-GFS, IMD-WRF, NCEP-GFS, UKMO, and JMA. A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for predicting 12 hourly cyclone intensity (up to 72 hours) is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. Various dynamical and thermodynamical parameters as predictors are derived from the model outputs of IMD operational Global Forecast System and these parameters are also used for the prediction of rapid intensification. For forecast of inland wind after the landfall of a cyclone, an empirical technique is developed. This paper briefly describes the forecast system CPS and evaluates the performance skill for two recent cyclones Viyaru (non-intensifying) and Phailin (rapid intensifying), converse in nature in terms of track and intensity formed over Bay of Bengal in 2013. The evaluation of performance shows that the GPP analysis at early stages of development of a low pressure system indicated the potential of the system for further intensification. The 12-hourly track forecast by MME, intensity forecast by SCIP model and rapid intensification forecasts are found to be consistent and very useful to the operational forecasters. The error statistics of the decay model shows that the model was able to predict the decaying intensity after landfall with reasonable accuracy. The performance statistics demonstrates the potential of the system for improving operational cyclone forecast service over the Indian seas.     

Mapping the Land Cover of Mexico Using AVHRR Time‐Series Data Sets

Abstract

An important methodological and analytical requirement for analyzing spatial relationships between regional habitats and species distributions in Mexico is the development of standard methods for mapping the country's land cover/land use formations. This necessarily involves the use of global data such as that produced by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR). We created a nine‐band time‐series composite image from AVHRR Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) bi‐weekly data. Each band represented the maximum NDVI for a particular month of either 1992 or 1993. We carried out a supervised classification approach, using the latest comprehensive land cover/vegetation map created by the Mexican National Institute of Geography (INEGI) as reference data. Training areas for 26 land cover/vegetation types were selected and digitized on the computer's screen by overlaying the INEGI vector coverage on the NDVI image. To obtain specific spectral responses for each vegetation type, as determined by its characteristic phenology and geographic location, the statistics of the spectral signatures were subjected to a cluster analysis. A total of 104 classes distributed among the 26 land cover types were used to perform the classification. Elevation data were used to direct classification output for pine‐oak and coastal vegetation types. The overall correspondence value of the classification proposed in this paper was 54%; however, for main vegetation formations correspondence values were higher (60‐80%). In order to obtain refinements in the proposed classification we recommend further analysis of the signature statistics and adding topographic data into the classification algorithm.     

Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) for seismic site characterization using 2D genetic algorithm at Bahrah area,Wadi Fatima,Saudi Arabia

The present study deals with the seismic site classification of Bahrah area, Wadi Fatima, to characterize the local site conditions. The dynamic behavior of sediments was studied by the application of surface wave inversion. The multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) shallow geophysical technique was utilized for site classification. MASW survey was carried out at 66 sites along with 13 seismic refraction profiles at suitable localities. MASW and seismic refraction profiles were processed and compared with the available borehole data. The integration of MASW techniques with seismic refraction and borehole data progressively enhanced the subsurface visualization and reliability of the shear wave velocity estimation in the subsurface in the study area. The subsurface shear-wave velocity model was achieved by the solution of an inverse problem-based dispersion of surface waves and propagation in a vertically heterogeneous medium. The 2D genetic algorithm was employed for the inversion of dispersion curves to obtain velocity and thickness of subsurface layers. The depth to engineering bedrock and velocity of shear waves in the first 30 m was deciphered and mapped. The depth of bedrock in study area varies from 4 to 30 m, and V _{S 30} ranges from 320 to 800 m/s. The most of study area falls in B and C class categories in addition to few sites of D class according to the NEHRP guidelines.