The seasonal predictability of the Asian summer monsoon in a two-tiered forecast system

An extensive set of boreal summer seasonal hindcasts from a two tier system is compared with corresponding seasonal hindcasts from two other coupled ocean–atmosphere models for their seasonal prediction skill (for precipitation and surface temperature) of the Asian summer monsoon. The unique aspect of the two-tier system is that it is at relatively high resolution and the SST forcing is uniquely bias corrected from the multi-model averaged forecasted SST from the two coupled ocean–atmosphere models. Our analysis reveals: (a) The two-tier forecast system has seasonal prediction skill for precipitation that is comparable (over the Southeast Asian monsoon) or even higher (over the South Asian monsoon) than the coupled ocean–atmosphere. For seasonal anomalies of the surface temperature the results are more comparable across models, with all of them showing higher skill than that for precipitation. (b) Despite the improvement from the uncoupled AGCM all models in this study display a deterministic skill for seasonal precipitation anomalies over the Asian summer monsoon region to be weak. But there is useful probabilistic skill for tercile anomalies of precipitation and surface temperature that could be harvested from both the coupled and the uncoupled climate models. (c) Seasonal predictability of the South Asian summer monsoon (rainfall and temperature) does seem to stem from the remote ENSO forcing especially over the Indian monsoon region and the relatively weaker seasonal predictability in the Southeast Asian summer monsoon could be related to the comparatively weaker teleconnection with ENSO. The uncoupled AGCM with the bias corrected SST is able to leverage this teleconnection for improved seasonal prediction skill of the South Asian monsoon relative to the coupled models which display large systematic errors of the tropical SST’s.     

K-Ar age of Ukra glauconites from the Kutch Basin, India

The present paper reports the K-Ar ages determined on glauconitic samples collected from the Ukra Member of the Mesozoic Bhuj Formation in two different sections, one located on the Ghuneri-Ghaduli road near Katesar Mahadeo temple and the other at the base of the Ukra hill in the northwestern part of the Kutch Mainland area. Three glauconite samples viz., Ukra_KT-1, Ukra_KT-4 and Ukra_UH-3 have yielded K-Ar ages of 107.9 ± 3.4 Ma, 105.5 ± 3.3 Ma and 103.5 ± 3.4 Ma, respectively. The sample Ukra_KT-l treated with 0.5N HC1 and analysed in duplicate has yielded a mean age of 104 ± 2.3 Ma while the sample Ukra_KT-4 treated with 0.1N HCl has given an age of 106.5 ± 3.3 Ma. The ages of the treated and untreated glauconites are indistinguishable within 2σ uncertainty with a mean of 105.2 ± 1.3 Ma, which has been interpreted as the depositional age of the Ukra Member of the Mesozoic Bhuj Formation. The study has further indicated that mild acid treatment (up to 0.5N HCl) does not lead to any loss of radiogenic argon in the glauconites and can be helpful in purification of the samples.     

Evolution of Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton, eastern Singhbhum, India: a case study of petrogenesis of an A-type granite in bimodal association

The A-type Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton (3.09 Ga), occurring along the eastern margin of the Singhbhum-Orissa Craton, eastern India, represents the final phase of acid plutonism in this crustal block of Archean age. The granite shows a bimodal association with a voluminous gabbroid body, exposed mainly along its western margin, and is associated with the Singhbhum Shear zone. The granite pluton is composed mainly of a coarse ferrohastingsite–biotite granite phase, with an early fine-grained granophyric microgranitic phase and a late biotite aplogranitic phase. Petrogenetic models of partial melting, fractional crystallisation and magma mixing have been advocated for the evolution of this pluton. New data, combined with earlier information, suggest that two igneous processes were responsible for the evolution of the Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton: partial melting of the Singhbhum Granite; followed by limited amount of mixing of acid and basic magmas in an anorogenic extensional setting. The necessary heat for partial melting was provided by the voluminous basaltic magma, now represented by the gabbroid body, emplaced at a shallow crustal level and showing a bimodal association with the Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton. The Singhbhum Shear Zone provided a possible channel way for the emplacement of the basic magma during crustal extension. It is concluded that all three phases of the Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton were derived from the same parent magma, generated by batch partial melting of the Singhbhum Granite at relatively high temperatures (980 °C) and low pressures (4 to <2 kbar) under anhydrous conditions. The coarse ferrohastingsite biotite granite phase shows evidence of limited and heterogeneous assimilation of country rock metasediments. However, the early microgranite phase and late aplogranite phase have not assimilated any metasediments. Compositional irregularities observed along the western margin of the Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton in contact with the gabbro body including a continuous fractionating sequence from quartz diorite to alkali-feldspar granite in the Notopahar area. Gradational contacts between the gabbro and the Mayurbhanj Granite Pluton in the Gorumahisani area etc., may be attributed to a limited amount of mixing between the gabbroid magma and the newly generated Mayurbhanj Granite magma. The mixing was mainly of liquid–liquid diffusive type, with a subordinate amount of mixing of solid–liquid type. Although A-type granites are commonly described as having high total REE (e.g. 270–400 ppm), studies on the late aplogranite phase of the Mayurbhanj Granite show that total REE values (100 ppm) are low. This low REE abundance may be attributed to the progressive residual nature of the Singhbhum Granite source during continued partial melting, when the magmas of the microgranite and coarse granite phases had already been removed from the source region.     

Lunar tidal oscillations in the horizontal ionospheric drift at the equator

The effect of lunar tides on the apparent ionospheric drift velocity (V) for an equatorial station Thumba (0.6°S dip) is computed by using nearly six years of data at fixed solar hours. Significant tides are observed in the E-region drifts, particularly around 12.00 hr and in the F-region drifts around 15.00 hr.A good correlation in the phases of the lunar tides in H and V is found to exist, suggesting a strong electrojet control of the horizontal ionospheric drift around these hours.     

An Objective Analysis of Support Vector Machine Based Classification for Remote Sensing

Accurate thematic classification is one of the most commonly desired outputs from remote sensing images. Recent research efforts to improve the reliability and accuracy of image classification have led to the introduction of the Support Vector Classification (SVC) scheme. SVC is a new generation of supervised learning method based on the principle of statistical learning theory, which is designed to decrease uncertainty in the model structure and the fitness of data. We have presented a comparative analysis of SVC with the Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC) method, which is the most popular conventional supervised classification technique. SVC is an optimization technique in which the classification accuracy heavily relies on identifying the optimal parameters. Using a case study, we verify a method to obtain these optimal parameters such that SVC can be applied efficiently. We use multispectral and hyperspectral images to develop thematic classes of known lithologic units in order to compare the classification accuracy of both the methods. We have varied the training to testing data proportions to assess the relative robustness and the optimal training sample requirement of both the methods to achieve comparable levels of accuracy. The results of our study illustrated that SVC improved the classification accuracy, was robust and did not suffer from dimensionality issues such as the Hughes Effect.     

Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department’s rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.

     

Optically stimulated luminescence chronology of terrace sediments of Siang River,Higher NE Himalaya: Comparison of Quartz and Feldspar chronometers

Four levels of terraces located along Siang River, north of Main Central Thrust at Tuting, NE Himalaya are dated using Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL). The dating technique is applied using (1) Blue LED stimulation on Quartz (2) Infrared Stimulated Luminescence (IRSL) stimulation on Feldspar at 50 °C and (3) Infrared Stimulated Luminescence stimulation on Feldspar at an elevated temperature of 225 °C. The results indicated that the later two protocols on feldspars yielded overestimated ages that suggested incomplete bleaching of luminescence signals in feldspar. The ages derived using quartz suggested a nearly continued valley aggradation from >21–8 ka with three phases of bedrock incision. The phase of aggradation coincides with a climatic transition from cold and dry Last Glacial phase to warm and wet Holocene Optimum. The bedrock incision phases centered at <21 ka, ∼11 ka and ∼8 ka indicate towards major episodes of tectonic uplift in the region around Tuting.     

Nonlinear time series analysis of the light curves from the black hole system GRS 1915+105

GRS 1915+105 is a prominent black hole system exhibiting variability over a wide range of time scales and its observed light curves have been classified into 12 temporal states. Here we undertake a complete analysis of these light curves from all the states using various quantifiers from nonlinear time series analysis, such as the correlation dimension (D2), the correlation entropy (K2), singular value decomposition (SVD) and the multifractal spectrum (f(α) spectrum). An important aspect of our analysis is ...