Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simulation of the Holocene climate evolution in Northern Africa: The termination of the African Humid Period

The Holocene climate evolution in Northern Africa is studied in a 9000-yr-long transient simulation with a coupled atmosphere–ocean–vegetation model forced by changes in insolation and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. The model simulates in the monsoonal domains a significant decrease in precipitation under influence of the orbitally forced reduction in summer insolation. In the Western Sahara region, the simulated mid-Holocene transition from humid to arid conditions (the termination of the African Humid Period) is highly non-linear with the occurrence of centennial-scale climate fluctuations due to the biogeophysical feedback between precipitation and vegetation cover. This result is in agreement with proxy data from the Western Sahara region. The other monsoonal regions experience a more gradual climate evolution that linearly follows the insolation forcing, which appears in disagreement with available lake level records.     

Results of monitoring of the changes in the hydrochemical structure of the central and Southern Caspian Sea over 1995–2005

The results of decennial monitoring of the Caspian Sea were summarized, which allowed revealing the “pumping” of nutrients from the euphotic layer to deepwater depressions of the Central and Southern Caspian Sea. In parallel, in the deepwater depressions, growth of hypoxia to values of 0.2–0.5 ml O₂/l proceeds. In 2006, hydrogen sulfide was registered in the near-bottom layer of the South Caspian Sea Basin. It is shown that the transformation of the hydrochemical structure was directed towards the conditions observed at the times of Bruevich (1933–1934), but no complete coincidence has yet been reached.     

Modelling regional effects of artificial groundwater recharge in a multilayer aquifer characterized by perched water tables

This paper presents an approach to estimate the effects of a managed recharge experiment in a multilayer aquifer characterized by the presence of perched water tables in the Medina del Campo groundwater body, Douro basin, central Spain. A numerical model was developed to evaluate the effect of artificial recharge on the shallow sector of a regional-scale aquifer and on formerly active wetlands. The model was developed in the Visual MODFLOW Pro v.2011.1 environment in order to represent and analyse the regional impact of this artificial recharge event. Results suggest that the assumption of a single perched system may prove useful in regional contexts where data is limited. From a study site perspective, managed recharge is observed to increase shallow storage along the riverbanks, which is considered valuable for environmental purposes. However, downstream wetlands are unlikely to experience a significant recovery. Furthermore, only a small percentage of artificial recharge is expected to reach the deep regional aquifer. This method can be exported to settings characterized by the presence of perched aquifers and associated groundwater dependent ecosystems.     

Deep ocean fluxes and their link to surface ocean processes and the biological pump

Intense studies of upper and deep ocean processes were carried out in the Northwestern Indian Ocean (Arabian Sea) within the framework of JGOFS and related projects in order to improve our understanding of the marine carbon cycle and the ocean’s role as a reservoir for atmospheric CO₂. The results show a pronounced monsoon-driven seasonality with enhanced organic carbon fluxes into the deep-sea during the SW Monsoon and during the early and late NE Monsoon north of 10°N. The productivity is mainly regulated by inputs of nutrients from subsurface waters into the euphotic zone via upwelling and mixed layer-deepening. Deep mixing introduces light limitation by carrying photoautotrophic organisms below the euphotic zone during the peak of the NE Monsoon. Nevertheless, deep mixing and strong upwelling during the SW Monsoon provide an ecological advantage for diatoms over other photoautotrophic organisms by increasing the silica concentrations in the euphotic zone. When silica concentrations fall below 2 μmol l⁻¹, diatoms lose their dominance in the plankton community. During diatom-dominated blooms, the biological pathway of uptake of CO₂ (the biological pump) appears to be more efficient than during blooms of other organisms, as indicated by organic carbon to carbonate carbon (rain) ratios. Due to the seasonal alternation of diatom and non-diatom dominated exports, spatial variations of the annual mean rain ratios are hardly discernible along the main JGOFS transect.Data-based estimates of the annual mean impact of the biological pump on the fCO₂ in the surface water suggest that the biological pump reduces the increase of fCO₂ in the surface water caused by intrusion of CO₂-enriched subsurface water by 50–70%. The remaining 30 to 50% are attributed to CO₂ emissions into the atmosphere. Rain ratios up to 60% higher in river-influenced areas off Pakistan and in the Bay of Bengal than in the open Arabian Sea imply that riverine silica inputs can further enhance the impact of the biological pump on the fCO₂ in the surface water by supporting diatom blooms. Consequently, it is assumed that reduced river discharges caused by the damming of major rivers increase CO₂ emission by lowering silica inputs to the Arabian Sea; this mechanism probably operates in other regions of the world ocean also.     

The Stress–Strain State of Recent Structures in the Northeastern Sector of the Russian Arctic Region

Doklady Earth Sciences - Complex research to determine the stress–strain state of the Earth’s crust and the types of seismotectonic destruction for the northeastern sector of the...     

Geology of the Acropolis prospect,South Australia,constrained by high-precision CA-TIMS ages

Abstract

Acropolis is an Fe-oxide–copper–gold prospect ～20?km from Olympic Dam, South Australia, and marked by near-coincident gravity and magnetic anomalies. Prospective Fe-oxide–apatite?±?sulfide veins occur in Mesoproterozoic and Paleoproterozoic volcanic and granitoid host units beneath unmineralised sedimentary formations. We have produced a geological map and history of the prospect using data from 16 diamond drill holes, including LA-ICPMS and high-precision CA-TIMS ages. The oldest unit is megacrystic granite of the Donington Suite (ca 1850?Ma). A non-conformity spanning ca 250 My separates the Donington Suite and felsic lavas and ignimbrites of the Gawler Range Volcanics (GRV; 1594.03?±?0.68?Ma). The GRV were intruded by granite of the Hiltaba Suite (1594.88?±?0.50?Ma) and felsic dykes (1593.88?±?0.56?Ma; same age as the Roxby Downs Granite at Olympic Dam). The felsic dykes are weakly altered and lack Fe-oxide–apatite–sulfide veins, suggesting that they post-date the main hydrothermal event. If correct, this relationship implies that the main hydrothermal event at Acropolis was ca 1594?Ma and pre-dated the main hydrothermal event at Olympic Dam. The GRV at Acropolis are the same age as the GRV at Olympic Dam and ca 3–7 My older than the GRV exposed in the Gawler Ranges. The gravity and magnetic anomalies coincide with sections through the GRV, Hiltaba Suite and Donington Suite that contain abundant, wide, Fe-oxide veins. The GRV, Hiltaba Suite and Donington Suite are unconformably overlain by the Mesoproterozoic Pandurra Formation or Neoproterozoic Stuart Shelf sedimentary formations. The Pandurra Formation shows marked lateral variations in thickness related to paleotopography on the underlying units and post-Pandurra Formation pre-Neoproterozoic faults. The Stuart Shelf sedimentary formations have uniform thicknesses.

1. KEY POINTS

2. Fe-oxide–apatite?±?sulfide veins are hosted by the Gawler Range Volcanics (1594.03?±?0.68?Ma), the Hiltaba Suite granite (1594.88?±?0.50?Ma) and Donington Suite granite (ca 1850?Ma).

3. The age of felsic dykes (1593.88?±?0.56?Ma) interpreted to be post-mineralisation implies that the main hydrothermal event at Acropolis was ca 1594?Ma.

4. The Gawler Range Volcanics at Acropolis are the same age as the Gawler Range Volcanics at Olympic Dam and ca 3 to 7 My older than the Gawler Range Volcanics exposed in the Gawler Ranges.

     

New data on sedimentation and pedogenesis in the Selenga Midland (western Transbaikalia) during Late Glacial and Holocene

The investigation of soil-sedimentary sequences formed in different erosional and depositional environments in the central part of the Selenga Midland (western Transbaikalia region) during Late Glacial and Holocene made it possible to reveal nine periods of activation of exogenic processes and sedimentation and eight stages of intense pedogenesis, to define the specific features of these pedogenesis and sedimentation epochs, and to assess their duration. The data on the intensity of sedimentation and its influence on pedogenesis is demonstrated. Asynchronous development of exogenic processes and pedogenesis related to the landscapeâ “climate heterogeneity of the Selenga Midland have been revealed. The latter is reflected in more distinct epochs of intense exogenic processes in more arid southern areas of the midland and more durable periods of pedogenesis in humid climatic environments of its central part.     

Rotation of close binary system components

The rotation of close binary system components is investigated. The principal physical characteristics as well as the equatorial rotational velocities and the axial and orbital inclinations for 46 close binary systems were determined. It is found that the rotation axes of the individual stars in a pair cross the orbital plane under different angles. As a rule, the rotation and orbital periods of a vast majority of the systems investigated here do not coincide.