A new tsunami runup predictor

Natural Hazards - We introduce a new parameter, tsunami runup predictor (TRP), relating the accelerating phase of the wave to the length of the beach slope over which the wave is travelling. We...     

Post‐earthquake damage assessment using residual displacements

This paper presents a new, improved, post‐earthquake damage assessment method that takes into account residual deformations attained by the damaged structure during the earthquake. Local and global residual deformations and visual damage indicators are considered to estimate the maximum deformations experienced by the structure. As a particular development, the method allows measured displacements and rotations to be considered jointly. Uncertainties associated with both the excitation and the damaged structure are explicitly accounted for. The resulting maximum displacement estimates allow a more accurate evaluation of the extent of structural damage when judging the usability/reparability of the investigated structure. A trial application of the method to a real structure tested on a shaking table is presented. The results confirm the capability of the method to estimate the maximum displacement and the residual stiffness of the damaged structure. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Earthquake performance assessment and rehabilitation of two historical unreinforced masonry buildings

The paper describes the earthquake performance assessment of two historical buildings located in Istanbul exposed to a M_w = 7+ earthquake expected to hit the city and proposes solutions for their structural rehabilitation and/or strengthening. Both buildings are unreinforced clay brick masonry (URM) structures built in 1869 and 1885, respectively. The first building is a rectangular-shaped structure rising on four floors. The second one is L-shaped with one basement and three normal floors above ground. They survived the 1894, M_s = 7.0 Istanbul Earthquake, during which widespread damage to URM buildings took place in the city. Earthquake ground motion to be used in performance assessment and retrofit design is determined through probabilistic and deterministic seismic hazard assessment. Strength characteristics of the brick walls are assessed on the basis of Schmidt hammer test results and information reported in the literature. Dynamic properties of the buildings (fundamental vibration periods) are measured via ambient vibration tests. The buildings are modelled and analyzed as three-dimensional assembly of finite elements. Following the preliminary assessment based on the equivalent earthquake loads method, the dynamic analysis procedure of FEMA 356 (Pre-standard and commentary for the seismic rehabilitation of buildings, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, 2000) and ASCE/SEI 41-06 (Seismic rehabilitation of existing buildings, American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, 2007) is followed to obtain dynamic structural response of the buildings and to evaluate their earthquake performance. In order to improve earthquake resistance of the buildings, reinforced cement jacketing of the main load carrying walls and application of fiber reinforced polymer bands to the secondary walls are proposed.     

Assessment of CMIP5 global model simulations over the subset of CORDEX domains used in the Phase I CREMA

We present an assessment of the CMIP5 global model simulations over a subset of CORDEX domains used in the Phase I CREMA (CORDEX RegCM hyper-MAtrix) experiment (Africa, HYMEX-MED (Mediterranean), South America, Central America and West Asia). Three variants of the transformed Mielke measure are used to assess (1) the model skill in simulating surface temperature and precipitation historical climatology, (2) the degree of surface temperature and precipitation change occurring under greenhouse gas forcing, and (3) the consistency of a model’s projected change with that of the Multi Model Ensemble (MME) mean. The majority of models exhibit varying degrees of skill depending on the region and season; however, a few models are identified as performing well globally. We find that resolution improves the model skill in most regional and seasonal cases, especially for temperature. Models with the highest and lowest climate sensitivity, as well as those whose change most resembles the ensemble mean are also discussed. Although the higher resolution models perform better, we find that resolution does not have a statistically significant impact on the models’ response to GHG forcing, indicating that model biases do not play a primary role in affecting the model response to GHG forcing. We also assess the three selected models for the CREMA Phase I experiment (HADGEM2ES, MPI-ESMMR and GFDL-ESM2M) and find that they are characterized by a relatively good level of performance, a range of high to low climate sensitivities and a good consistency with the MME changes, thereby providing a reasonably representative sample of the CMIP5 ensemble.     

Upper crustal Poisson’s ratio and coda-wave attenuation beneath Eastern Anatolia

The attenuation of seismic waves reflects the elastic nature of the media within which the waves propagate. In this study, we calculate the Coda-Q(Q_c), frequency dependence(η), Vp/Vs and Poisson's(υ) ratios by using 2621 vertical component seismograms generated by 987 earthquakes recorded by 13 seismic stations in Eastern Anatolia, and creat a 2-D seismic tomographic Q_c model for the region. The obtained model provides significant information for exploring the boundaries of adjacent tectonic units within the upper crust and interpreting their dynamic characteristics. The 2-D Q_c model and the other parameters are consistent with the seismotectonic features of Eastern Anatolia. Highly heterogeneous Q_c values are observed in the study area dividing it into north-south directed bands of low and high attenuation. The highest η values were obtained beneath the northwestern and eastern parts of the study region. Clear, high and low υ values are obtained in the western and eastern parts of the study area, respectively. The spatial variations in the measured parameters are consistent with many geophysical observations including low Pn velocities, efficient Sn blockage, high heat flow, and widespread volcanism. Different upper crustal thicknesses and inhomogeneous stress distribution along the East and North Anatolian Fault Zones may also contribute to the observed heterogeneities.     

Toxic Effects of Copper‐Based and Synthetic Organic Pesticides on Activated Sludge

Toxic effects of five commonly used pesticides on the biomass of a municipal activated sludge system were determined on the basis of the reduction in the oxygen uptake rate (OUR) and specific oxygen uptake rate (SOUR). Toxicity levels of the selected pesticides were determined by employing a modified OECD 209 (Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development) method which was performed as batch experiments using a respirometer. Copper sulphate (CuSO₄ · 5 H₂O), copper oxychloride (Cu₂Cl(OH)₃), copper calcium oxychloride (CaCu₃Cl₂(OH)₆) as copper‐based pesticides and chlorsulphuron (C₁₂H₁₂ClN₅O₄S), 2,4‐dichlorophenoxyacetic acid (2,4‐D) (C₈H₆Cl₂O₃) as synthetic organic pesticides were selected for the experiments. The EC₅₀ values were determined to be 78, 249 and 281 mg/L for CuSO₄ · 5 H₂O, Cu₂Cl(OH)₃ and CaCu₃Cl₂(OH)₆, respectively. Corresponding values for C₁₂H₁₂ClN₅O₄S and 2,4‐D were 860 and 3664 mg/L, respectively. Results indicated that toxicity effects of copper‐based pesticides were higher than that of synthetic organic pesticides. CuSO₄ · 5 H₂O was found to exert the highest toxicity among the copper‐based pesticides, whereas, C₁₂H₁₂ClN₅O₄S was determined to be the most toxic among the organic pesticides on activated sludge biomass.     

A new method for aquifer system identification and parameter estimation

The standard practice for assessing aquifer parameters is to match groundwater drawdown data obtained during pumping tests against theoretical well function curves specific to the aquifer system being tested. The shape of the curve derived from the logarithmic time derivative of the drawdown data is also very frequently used as a diagnostic tool to identify the aquifer system in which the pumping test is being conducted. The present study investigates the incremental area method (IAM) to serve as an alternative diagnostic tool for the aquifer system identification as well as a supplement to the aquifer parameter estimation procedure. The IAM based diagnostic curves for ideal confined, leaky, bounded and unconfined aquifers have been derived as part of this study, and individual features of the plots have been identified. These features were noted to be unique to each aquifer setting, which could be used for rapid evaluation of the aquifer system. The effectiveness of the IAM methodology was investigated by analyzing field data for various aquifer settings including leaky, unconfined, bounded and heterogeneous conditions. The results showed that the proposed approach is a viable method for use as a diagnostic tool to identify the aquifer system characteristics as well as to support the estimation of the hydraulic parameters obtained from standard curve matching procedures. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Aquifer parameter estimation using an incremental area method

Theoretical well functions have been derived over the years to predict ground water level behaviour in aquifer systems under stress owing to groundwater extraction. The drawdown data collected during pump tests are typically analysed using graphical curve‐matching procedures to estimate aquifer parameters based on these well functions. Difficulty in aquifer characteristic identification and parameter estimation may arise when the field data do not perfectly match the drawdown curves obtained from the well functions. The present study provides a new method for the interpretation of aquifer pump tests which supplements the existing curve‐matching procedures in case ideal conditions do not exist; the proposed method provides a greater degree of flexibility in the data analysis for diagnostic tool purposes. The method, referred to as the Incremental Area Method (IAM) is based on integrating the logarithmic‐based drawdown curves within a discrete time and matching the results with a corresponding time integral of the Theis ( 1935 ) Well Function which governs ideal confined aquifers. The application of the proposed method to synthetically generated data and field data showed that IAM represents a viable method which yields information on potential non‐idealness of the aquifer and provides aquifer parameter estimates thus potentially overcoming drawdown data curve‐matching difficulties. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Assessment of advective–dispersive contaminant transport in heterogeneous aquifers using a meshless method

Groundwater solute transport phenomena typically occur in water-bearing zones with heterogeneous solute dispersive characteristics and/or media hydraulic properties. A radial basis function collocation method (RBFCM)-based numerical method was developed in order to investigate the ability of RBFCM to accurately portray solute transport phenomena under heterogeneous conditions. Simulations were performed for 1-D and 2-D transport scenarios in which scale-dependent dispersivity fields were taken into consideration and compared with available analytical solutions. Different radial basis functions (RBFs) were employed for assessing the sensitivity of the present method on the selected RBFs. The simulation results were also compared with the results of MT3DMS which is a modular three-dimensional transport model with alternative solution schemes including the method of characteristics, the implicit central finite difference and the third order total variation diminishing finite volume. The proposed model was also used to simulate a real case condition where solute transport through a two-layer soil medium had been investigated experimentally. The results showed that RBFCM represented a powerful tool for predicting the solute transport occurrence under heterogeneous conditions with high accuracy.