Development of an aftershock occurrence model calibrated for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods

This paper presents the calibration of Omori's aftershock occurrence rate model for Turkey and the resulting likelihoods. Aftershock occurrence rate models are used for estimating the probability of an aftershock that exceeds a specific magnitude threshold within a time interval after the mainshock. Critical decisions on the post-earthquake safety of structures directly depend on the aftershock hazard estimated using the occurrence model. It is customary to calibrate models in a region-specific manner. These models depend on rate parameters(a, b, c and p) related to the seismicity characteristics of the investigated region. In this study, the available well-recorded aftershock sequences for a set of Mw ≥ 5.9 mainshock events that were observed in Turkey until 2012 are considered to develop the aftershock occurrence model. Mean estimates of the model parameters identified for Turkey are a =-1.90, b = 1.11, c = 0.05 and p = 1.20. Based on the developed model, aftershock likelihoods are computed for a range of different time intervals and mainshock magnitudes. Also, the sensitivity of aftershock probabilities to the model parameters is investigated. Aftershock occurrence probabilities estimated using the model are expected to be useful for post-earthquake safety evaluations in Turkey.     

Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System: Methods and practices

Potential impact of large earthquakes on urban societies can be reduced by timely and correct action after a disastrous earthquake. Modern technology permits measurements of strong ground shaking in near real-time for urban areas exposed to earthquake risk. The Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System equipped with 100 instruments and two data processing centers aims at the near real time estimation of earthquake damages using most recently developed methodologies and up-to-date structural and demographic inventories of Istanbul city. The methodology developed for near real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake consists of the following general steps: (1) rapid estimation of the ground motion distribution using the strong ground motion data gathered from the instruments; (2) improvement of the ground motion estimations as earthquake parameters become available and (3) estimation of building damage and casualties based on estimated ground motions and intensities. The present paper elaborates on the ground motion and damage estimation methodologies used by the Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System with a special emphasis on validation and verification of the different methods.     

Comparison of the attenuation properties for two different areas in eastern Anatolia,Turkey

In this study, the attenuation properties of the crust and the quality factor of S wave in eastern Anatolia (Turkey) were determined by local earthquakes for two different areas, Oltu and Erzurum. Seismic wave attenuation can be changed with high pressure or structural effects. Therefore, we argued that the estimation of attenuation coefficient in seismic active zones in Eastern Anatolia is a very useful tool to determine seismic activities. It uses regional waveform data set from two stations, OLT and ERZ, for 95 events that occurred in these regions between 2001 and 2005. The attenuation has been determined using the Chobra–Alexeev model based on the epicenter distance–amplitude relations. This model allows for investigation of the effects of variations in attenuation properties for different areas. We introduced a new magnitude formula for these areas using the amplitude normalization methods for reference values M_L=4, so as to correct effects of the magnitudes. We also determined velocity of seismic waves. The average attenuation coefficient (α), average quality factor (Q_s) and P and S waves velocities were obtained with normalized amplitude values for Erzurum (ERZ) and Oltu (OLT) as 0.0135 km⁻¹, 37, 6.20 km/s and 3.38 km/s and 0.0151, 34, 6.13 and 3.48.     

Identification of major moisture sources across the Mediterranean Basin

Climate Dynamics - We employ a Lagrangian based moisture back trajectory method on an ensemble of four reanalysis datasets to provide a comprehensive understanding of moisture sources over the...     

Probabilistic estimation of inelastic displacement demands in soil–structure interaction systems on cohesive soils

Inelastic displacement ratios (IDRs) of nonlinear soil–structure interaction (SSI) systems located at sites with cohesive soils are investigated in this study. To capture the effects of inelastic cyclic behavior of the supporting soil, the Beam on Nonlinear Winkler Foundation (BNWF) model is used. The superstructure is modeled using an inelastic single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) system model. Nonlinear SSI systems representing various combinations of unconfined compressive strengths and shear wave velocities are considered in the analysis. A set of strong ground motions recorded at sites with soft to stiff soils is used for considering the record-to-record variability of IDRs. It is observed that IDRs for nonlinear SSI systems are sensitive to the strength and the stiffness properties of both the soil and the structure. For the case of SSI systems on the top of cohesive soils, the compressive strength of the soil has a significant impact on the IDRs, which cannot be captured by considering only the shear wave velocity of the soil. Based on the results of nonlinear time-history analysis, a new equation is proposed for estimating the mean and the dispersion of IDRs of SSI systems depending on the characteristic properties of the supporting soil, dimensions of the foundation, and properties of the superstructure. A probabilistic framework is presented for the performance-based seismic design of SSI systems located at sites with cohesive soils.     

Evaluation of andesite source as armourstone for a rubble mound breakwater (Hisarönü, Turkey)

Black Sea coast line is a hazardous region especially in winter due to the dominant wave action. Therefore, rubble mound breakwaters protected with armourstone used as ship shelters are vital structures especially for the fishermen. The deterioration of the armourstone with time in the form of abrasion and disintegration may result in the failure of the breakwater. In this study, the properties of the armourstone taken from an andesite quarry and used in the Hisarönü rubble mound breakwater were studied both in field and laboratory in order to assess their qualities and long-term durabilities. Based on the in situ observations and laboratory tests, the andesite is found to be generally marginal rock. CIRIA/CUR, RDI_s, RERS and Wet-Dry strength ratio classifications are in good agreement with the in situ observations and the results of the laboratory tests. However, RDI_d, Average Pore Diameter and Saturation Coefficient classifications cannot correctly predict long-term durability of the armourstone. Field studies reveal that block size of the andesite in the quarry increases with depth due to the increase in spacing of the cooling joints of the rock.     

A re-configuring sliding-mode controller with adjustable robustness

In this paper, a controller design method for underwater vehicles is presented, which is based on re-configuration of a sliding-mode controller in case of disturbances caused by shallow water conditions. The disturbance distribution information can be obtained and used to update the corrective gain vector of the sliding-mode controller. This increases the robustness of the controller and, hence, keeps the system performance within acceptable limits. Proposed method is validated with simulations on a submarine model.     

Introduction to ��Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. Volume I��

Eighteen papers are included in Volume 1 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: case studies of earthquake-generated tsunamis; tsunami forecast and hazard assessments; and theoretical and computational modeling of tsunami generation, propagation, and coastal behavior. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14?C16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.     

Introduction to “Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past,Present, and Future. Volume II”

Fifteen papers are included in Volume 2 of a PAGEOPH topical issue Tsunamis in the World Ocean: Past, Present, and Future. These papers are briefly introduced. They are grouped into three categories: reports and studies of recent tsunamis, studies on tsunami statistics and application to tsunami warning, and modeling studies of tsunami runup and inundation. Most of the papers were presented at the 24th International Tsunami Symposium held 14–16 July 2009 in Novosibirsk, Russia, and reflect the current state of tsunami science.