Confidence in modelling future climate: A Southern Hemisphere perspective

Climate models are essentially surrogates for the real system, in which experiments can be carried out. When these experiments attempt to simulate future climate, the results cannot be compared with the real atmosphere because they involve changes unique in recorded human history. Confidence indicators include model comparison with the real atmosphere for current climate representation and model intercomparison for future climate representation.From a Southern Hemisphere perspective general circulation models (GCMs) reveal some inadequacies in their representation of climate and differ significantly from each other in their response to a CO₂ doubling. Representation of drought as a response to sea surface temperature anomaly is shown to be successful but strongly dependent on correct parameterization of land surface exchange processes. More attention to Southern Hemisphere representation is required, particularly because of the likely strong role of the oceans.     

Trace constituents of Europa's atmosphere

Europa is bombarded by intense radiation that erodes the surface, launching molecules into a thin “atmosphere” representative of surface composition. In addition to atoms and molecules created in the mostly water ice surface such as H₂O, O₂, H₂, the atmosphere is known to have species representative of trace surface materials. These trace species are carried off with the 10-10⁴ H₂O molecules ejected by each energetic heavy ion, a process we have simulated using molecular dynamics. Using the results of those simulations, we found that a neutral mass spectrometer orbiting ∼100 km above the surface could detect species with surface concentrations above ∼0.03%. We have also modeled the atmospheric spatial structure of the volatile species CO₂ and SO₂ under a variety of assumptions. Detections of these species with moderate time and space resolution would allow us to constrain surface composition, chemistry and to study space weathering processes.     

'They don't like girls hanging around there': conflicts over recreational space in rural Northamptonshire

This paper provides new insights into girls' use of recreational spaces within rural areas. We draw upon data from in-depth discussion work with 10–14 year old girls undertaken in rural Northamptonshire to show how conflict between adults and children, rival groups of children, and boys and girls influences the social ownership of recreational spaces. In contrast to the rural childhood myth, we disclose geographies of anxiety, tension anddisharmony.     

The statistics of particle velocities and accelerations under waves with directional spread

The statistics of the horizontal component of the water particle velocity vector under random waves are considered. A spread in the directions of travel of the component wave trains does not affect the rms value of the modulus r but it affects the shape of its probability distribution in such a way that the pr3bability of extreme values is reduced. For small and moderate directional spreads the modulus for a given probability of exceedance is reduced by a factor which tends to F_s as the probability of exceedance tends to zero, where F_s is the spread factor (which is typically 0.9 in temperate storms). However, the convergence on this asymptote is not complete for probabilities of engineering importance, particularly for wide directional spreads. The standard deviation of the probability distribution of the direction of the vector is reduced roughly in inverse proportion to r. The same conclusions apply to particle accelerations.     

The heave response of a spar buoy

The vertical response of spar buoys to waves is examined. The response is the product of a rather complex wave forcing function and the resonant response of the buoy. With compound spar buoys (that is, consisting of more than one section of different diameters) the forcing function has a zero at a frequency which is usually close to the resonant frequency, but which can be arranged to be somewhat higher with beneficial effects on the response. Only the effects of pressure and inertia are considered, since this paper is mainly concerned to clarify some specific general principles and it is difficult to include the effects of drag, which are complex.     

Climate change projections of the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP)

We investigate major results of the NARCCAP multiple regional climate model (RCM) experiments driven by multiple global climate models (GCMs) regarding climate change for seasonal temperature and precipitation over North America. We focus on two major questions: How do the RCM simulated climate changes differ from those of the parent GCMs and thus affect our perception of climate change over North America, and how important are the relative contributions of RCMs and GCMs to the uncertainty (variance explained) for different seasons and variables? The RCMs tend to produce stronger climate changes for precipitation: larger increases in the northern part of the domain in winter and greater decreases across a swath of the central part in summer, compared to the four GCMs driving the regional models as well as to the full set of CMIP3 GCM results. We pose some possible process-level mechanisms for the difference in intensity of change, particularly for summer. Detailed process-level studies will be necessary to establish mechanisms and credibility of these results. The GCMs explain more variance for winter temperature and the RCMs for summer temperature. The same is true for precipitation patterns. Thus, we recommend that future RCM-GCM experiments over this region include a balanced number of GCMs and RCMs.