中国东部降水年际变化的随机动力诊断

利用一个具有门限的非线性随机动力气候模式对中国东部江淮流域的降水进行了分析。结果表明：在不同的门限域中,降水对外部强迫的响应有明显差异,呈现出一定的非线性特征;模式能较好地拟合降水的变化趋势。     

大气水汽变化及其反馈效应研究进展

大气水汽变化的反馈作用是影响平衡气候系统敏感性的最大反馈作用之一,能够放大其他温室气体增暖的效应,并可能导致极端天气气候事件的发生趋多趋强。因此,全面分析大气水汽的时空分布特征及其长期变化趋势,评估大气水汽反馈的区域气候效应,对于我们深入认识和理解全球变暖背景下区域气候响应的机理具有重要意义。综合国内外最新研究,已基本能够确定水汽反馈效应为一种使得全球增暖加快近一倍的强烈正反馈,并已能够估计其大致变化范围,但是此估计仍存在较大不确定性。随着卫星和探空技术的发展,目前已有的长期水汽资料日趋丰富,但资料之间也存在一些不确定性问题,同时单个资料本身也存在非均一性问题。最新的气候系统模式已能够大致模拟大气水汽的反馈效应,但近年的进展速度却并不令人乐观。我国的水汽观测和水汽反馈效应的研究也已取得长足进步,可以基本确定为水汽变化与地面温度存在正反馈关系,而与降水的关系虽然也较为密切,但因区域气候变化仍存在较大的不一致性。     

Middle Devonian-Tournaisian rocks and biota on Hainan Island, South China

On the basis of new paleontological data,the sequence and distributions of the Middle Devonian-Tournaisian rocks on Hainan Island have been sorted out for the first time.The Devonian rocks include the Middle Devonian Jinbo Formation and the Upper Devonian Changjiang Formation,which are distributed in northwestern Hainan Island.The Jinbo Formation is represented by631 m of littoral facies deposits,and was intruded by the Yanshanian granite in the base.The presence of chitinozoans Eisenackitina caster,Funsochitina pilosa,and Lagenochitina amottensis indicates the Givetian in age.The Changjiang Formation is made up of 140 m of neritic facies rocks,and contains the Famennian conodonts Palmatolepis gracilis sigmoidalis,Polygnathus germanus,and corals Cystophrentis kalaohoensis.The Devonian-Tournaisian transition beds,the lower part of the Jishi Formation,are composed of 61–129 m sandstone and siltstone,with gastropods Euomphalus spp.and brachiopods,and marked by conglomerate with the underlying Devonian rocks.The middle-upper part of the Tournaisian Jishi Formation consists of 100–251 m clastic and carbonate rocks,containing abundant corals Pseudoularinia irregularis,conodonts Siphonodella isosticha,trilobites Weberiphillipsia linguiformis,and brachiopods.On the basis of the occurrence of Xinanosprifer flabellum and Homotoma sp.,the Nanhao Formation in southern Hainan Island is now regarded as the Lower Silurian,instead of the previously designated Lower Carboniferous.It is confirmed that no Carboniferous rocks occurred in the area south to the Gancheng-Wanning Fault.     

超声波测风仪风速的不同算法误差分析

超声波测风仪与气象业务用风向标测风仪相比具有诸多优势,可为气象业务中风向风速观测急需解决的较多问题提供解决方案。为促成超声波风速仪尽早在气象部门业务应用,同时解决资料同化等问题,研究和选择适用于超声波测风仪的风速平均(平滑)算法显得极为重要。为此,从超声波测风仪测量原理出发,介绍了超声波测风仪获取数据的特点;利用台站获取的超声波测风仪风速的秒数据,采用不同时段、不同平均(平滑)方法,计算风速多种形式的平均值,通过统计、分析和比较,获得了标量和矢量不同算法下风速平均值的特性差异及其之间的误差,进一步验证了标量平均大于矢量平均的结论。通过对超声波测风仪的风速算法研究及其误差分析,对减小因算法带来的风速测量误差提供方法,同时探讨了超声波测风仪在气象业务使用的可能和方向。     

冻融循环下初始含水率对非饱和膨胀土剪切特性试验

为探究冻融循环条件下初始含水率对膨胀土偏应力-应变关系和剪切特性的影响,本文对不同初始含水率的非饱和膨胀土进行了不固结不排水三轴剪切试验。结果表明：1）非饱和膨胀土的偏应力-应变曲线的形式随含水率增大由应变软化逐渐转变为应变硬化,偏应力峰值随含水率增大而降低;2）非饱和膨胀土的抗剪强度随初始含水率的增加呈线性下降趋势;3）非饱和膨胀土在第1次冻融循环后偏应力及抗剪强度大幅度下降,在3~7次冻融循环后达到稳定。初始含水率是影响非饱和膨胀土力学性质的主要原因。     

Modeling and calculating for the compaction characteristics of waste rock masses

Bearing and deformation behaviors of waste rock masses (WRM) are more usually considered in stress distribution in caved waste. As WRM is widely located in hidden and dangerous environments, herein, numerical calculation is the preferred research method, but there are no modules specifically designed to simulate WRM, and the distribution of blockiness size, void, and properties of WRM in existing programs is still immature. A construction and subdivision method for modeling WRM is proposed in this paper. That is on the basis of the intact rock mass numerical model established in 3D Voronoi, the blocks in the intact rock mass are removed at random to achieve the purpose of retrieving the WRM structure by means of predetermined porosity. Also, the Weibull distribution is introduced to describe the properties of joints randomly, and a uniaxial compression experiment is used to research the compaction characteristics of WRM. The modeling and parametric methods can more accurately reflect fragmentation characteristics, bulking characteristics, and compaction characteristics of WRM. Compared with the existing theoretical and experimental results, this method has a high degree of consistency with them. This experimental study provides a new and effective method for the safety control of backfilling technics of WRM in coal mines.     

Dissipation mechanism of interplanetary alfvenic fluctuation

Observations on board Helios 1 and 2 have shown that, in 0.3–0.9 AU, the decay of the Alfvenic fluctuations is greater than is calculated by the WBK solution of the propagation of Alfven waves. The additional decay can be expressed by an exponential factor with a “dissipation length” λ, which varies with the frequency but is approximately constant for frequencies higher than 0.01 Hz. In this paper, we deduce the analytical expression for the dissipation length in both the wave energy cascade model, given in a previous work [7] and the viscous decay model [8]. After inserting the observed values of the solar wind parameters, we find the dissipation length given by the cascade model agrees with the observed length both in size and in its variation with frequency, while the one given by the viscous decay model differs greatly from the observations.     

清代科尔沁农耕北界的变迁

根据清代对蒙政策及其对蒙施土地垦殖的影响，结合当时科尔沁建置的时空特征，恢复了清代科尔沁土地垦殖典型时期的农耕北界，发现：清代科尔沁农耕北界具有两次显著的北跃，其中，农垦的第一次扩展是在18世纪末到20世纪初的“请旨招垦”时期，导致农耕北界从清代初期的“柳条边墙”北上至今长春-四平-昌图以及敖汉、翁牛特旗南部，哲里木盟东南部、卓索图盟大部以及昭乌达盟南部变成农牧并以逐为主的交错区，农耕的第二次发展是在清末时期，农垦推到洮儿河下游及西辽河两岸地区，此时的农耕北界北起黑龙江大庆县，经白城西、通辽北、开鲁县到林西县，今吉林省西部、辽宁省北部以及西辽河沿岸地带发展成为以农为主的农牧交错区，事实证明：清朝对蒙政策及其变化是导致科尔沁农耕北界跃变的主要驱动因子之一，是科尔沁农牧交错区形成的重要人文条件。     

TWO-FLUID MODEL FOR HEATING OF THE SOLAR CORONA AND ACCELERATION OF THE SOLAR WIND BY HIGH-FREQUENCY ALFVÉN WAVES

A model of the solar corona and wind is developed which includes for the first time the heating and acceleration effects of high-frequency Alfvén waves in the frequency range between 1 Hz and 1 kHz. The waves are assumed to be generated by the small-scale magnetic activity in the chromospheric network. The wave dissipation near the gyro-frequency, which decreases with increasing solar distance, leads to strong coronal heating. The resulting heating function is different from other artificial heating functions used in previous model calculations. The associated thermal pressure-gradient force and wave pressure-gradient force together can accelerate the wind to high velocities, such as those observed by Helios and Ulysses. Classical Coulomb heat conduction is also considered and turns out to play a role in shaping the temperature profiles of the heated protons. The time-dependent two-fluid (electrons and protons) model equations and the time-dependent wave-spectrum equation are numerically integrated versus solar distance out to about 0.3 AU. The solutions finally converge and settle on time-stationary profiles which are discussed in detail. The model computations can be made to fit the observed density profiles of a polar coronal hole and polar plume with the sonic point occurring at 2.4 R and 3.2 R , respectively. The solar wind speeds obtained at 63 R are 740 km s^-1 and 540 km s^-1; the mass flux is 2.1 and 2.2 × 10⁸ cm^-2 s^-1 (normalized to 1 AU), respectively. The proton temperature increases from a value of 4 × 10⁵ K at the lower boundary to 2 × 10⁶ K in the corona near 2 R .     

中国基本公共气象服务均等化水平现状——基于多层次灰色关联的实证研究

参考相关文献界定基本气象公共服务均等化内涵,并设计基本公共气象服务均等化水平多层次评价指标体系,对2013年的统计数据整理归纳出10个指标,用因子分析分成3类;由层次分析法构建层次结构关系图,通过专家咨询得出判断矩阵,依据判断矩阵定量计算出准则层和指标层中各因素的相对权重,然后对2013年全国31个省域基本公共气象服务均等化水平应用灰色关联综合评价模型进行实证分析。结果表明:基本公共气象服务均等化水平由西向东阶梯状递增、省域之间差异较大、总体水平偏低;大致可以分成较高、一般、较低3个区域等级;与省域经济、财政收入、综合发展能力正相关。