Bayesian methods for estimating multi-segment discharge rating curves

This study explores Bayesian methods for handling compound stage–discharge relationships, a problem which arises in many natural rivers. It is assumed: (1) the stage–discharge relationship in each rating curve segment is a power-law with a location parameter, or zero-plane displacement; (2) the segment transitions are abrupt and continuous; and (3) multiplicative measurement errors are of equal variance. The rating curve fitting procedure is then formulated as a piecewise regression problem where the number of segments and the associated changepoints are assumed unknown. Procedures are developed for describing both global and site-specific prior distributions for all rating curve parameters, including the changepoints. Estimation and uncertainty analysis is evaluated using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation (MCMC) techniques. The first model explored accounts for parameter and model uncertainties in the interpolated area, i.e. within the range of available stage–discharge measurements. A second model is constructed in an attempt to include the uncertainty in extrapolation, which is necessary when the rating curve is used to estimate discharges beyond the highest or lowest measurement. This is done by assuming that the rate of changepoints both inside and outside the measured area follows a Poisson process. The theory is applied to actual data from Norwegian gauging stations. The MCMC solutions give results that appear sensible and useful for inferential purposes, though the latter model needs further efforts in order to obtain a more efficient simulation scheme.     

Danian cool-water coral reefs in southern Scandinavia localised over seafloor highs

Danian (Paleocene) reefs formed by ahermatypic scleractinian corals in relatively deep water are known in a few localities in southern Scandinavia. Reflection and shallow seismic profiles, and samples from drilling and scuba diving in bridge pier excavations in Øresund, the strait between Denmark and Sweden, for the first time allow interpretation of the factors that controlled the localisation of the reefs.     

Overview,roles, and performance of the North East Atlantic fisheries commission (NEAFC)

According to the 1995 United Nations Fish Stocks Agreement (UNFSA), straddling fish stocks and highly migratory fish stocks are to be managed by Regional Fisheries Management Organisations (RFMOs), consisting of coastal states and relevant Distant Water Fishing Nations (DWFNs). In the North East Atlantic there are several straddling stocks, including herring, mackerel, blue whiting, redfish and numerous deep sea stocks that are exploited both within coastal states’ 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zones and on the high seas. Management of such stocks poses special management problems. In this area, the North East Atlantic Fisheries Commission (NEAFC) represents the relevant RFMO. So far the literature has devoted little attention to RFMOs in general and to NEAFC in particular. The purpose of this report is, first, to provide an overview of the organisation, structure, and objectives of NEAFC and, second, to consider its performance with regard to resource management.     

Seismic‐stratigraphic constraints on the age of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group,Faroe–Shetland region,Northeast Atlantic Ocean

Lower Palaeogene extrusive igneous rocks of the Faroe Islands Basalt Group (FIBG) dominate the Faroese continental margin, with flood basalts created at the time of breakup and separation from East Greenland extending eastwards into the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. This volcanic succession was emplaced in connection with the opening of the NE Atlantic; however, consensus on the age and duration of volcanism remains lacking. On the Faroe Islands, the FIBG comprises four main basaltic formations (the pre‐breakup Lopra and Beinisvørð formations, and the syn‐breakup Malinstindur and Enni formations) locally separated by thin intrabasaltic sedimentary and/or volcaniclastic units. Offshore, the distribution of these formations remains ambiguous. We examine the stratigraphic framework of these rocks on the Faroese continental margin combining onshore (published) outcrop information with offshore seismic‐reflection and well data. Our results indicate that on seismic‐reflection profiles, the FIBG can be informally divided into lower and upper seismic‐stratigraphic packages separated by the strongly reflective A‐horizon. The Lower FIBG comprises the Lopra and Beinisvørð formations; the upper FIBG includes the Malinstindur and Enni formations. The strongly reflecting A‐horizon is a consequence of the contrast in properties of the overlying Malinstindur and underlying Beinisvørð formations. Onshore, the A‐horizon is an erosional surface, locally cutting down into the Beinisvørð Formation; offshore, we have correlated the A‐horizon with the Flett unconformity, a highly incised, subaerial unconformity, within the juxtaposed and interbedded sedimentary fill of the Faroe‐Shetland Basin. We refer to this key regional boundary as the A‐horizon/Flett unconformity. The formation of this unconformity represents the transition from the pre‐breakup to the syn‐breakup phase of ocean margin development in the Faroe–Shetland region. We examine the wider implications of this correlation considering existing stratigraphic models for the FIBG, discussing potential sources of uncertainty in the correlation of the lower Palaeogene succession across the Faroe–Shetland region, and implications for the age and duration of the volcanism.     

Bayesian estimation of reservoir properties—effects of uncertainty quantification of 4D seismic data

This paper shows a history matching workflow with both production and 4D seismic data where the uncertainty of seismic data for history matching comes from Bayesian seismic waveform inversion. We use a synthetic model and perform two seismic surveys, one before start of production and the second after 1 year of production. From the first seismic survey, we estimate the contrast in slowness squared (with uncertainty) and use this estimate to generate an initial estimate of porosity and permeability fields. This ensemble is then updated using the second seismic survey (after inversion to contrasts) and production data with an iterative ensemble smoother. The impact on history matching results from using different uncertainty estimates for the seismic data is investigated. From the Bayesian seismic inversion, we get a covariance matrix for the uncertainty and we compare using the full covariance matrix with using only the diagonal. We also compare with using a simplified uncertainty estimate that does not come from the seismic inversion. The results indicate that it is important not to underestimate the noise in seismic data and that having information about the correlation in the error in seismic data can in some cases improve the results.     

Suspended Matter,Chl-a,CDOM, Grain Sizes,and Optical Properties in the Arctic Fjord-Type Estuary,Kangerlussuaq, West Greenland During Summer

Optical constituents as suspended particulate matter (SPM), chlorophyll (Chl-a), colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM), and grain sizes were obtained on a transect in the arctic fjord-type estuary Kangerlussuaq (66°) in August 2007 along with optical properties. These comprised diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling PAR (K _d(PAR)), upwelling PAR (K _u(PAR)), particle beam attenuation coefficient (c _p), and irradiance reflectance R(−0, PAR). PAR is white light between 400 and 700 nm. The estuary receives melt water from the Greenland Inland Ice and stations covered a transect from the very high turbid melt water outlet to clear marine waters. Results showed a strong spatial variation with high values as for suspended matter concentrations, CDOM, diffuse attenuation coefficient K _d(PAR), particle beam attenuation coefficients (c _p), and reflectance R(−0, PAR) at the melt water outlet. Values of optical constituents and properties decreased with distance from the melt water outlet to a more or less constant level in central and outer part of the estuary. There was a strong correlation between inorganic suspended matter (SPMI) and diffuse attenuation coefficient K _d(PAR) (r ² = 0.92) and also for particle beam attenuation coefficient (c _p; r ² = 0.93). The obtained SPMI specific attenuation—K _d^*(PAR) = 0.13 m² g⁻¹ SPMI—and the SPMI specific particle beam attenuation—c _p^* = 0.72 m² g⁻¹—coefficients were about two times higher than average literature values. Irradiance reflectance R(−0, PAR) was comparatively high (0.09−0.20) and showed a high (r ² = 0.80) correlation with K _u(PAR). Scattering dominated relative to absorption—b(PAR)/a(PAR) = 12.3. Results strongly indicated that the high values in the optical properties were related to the very fine particle sizes (mean = 2–6 μm) of the suspended sediment. Data and results are discussed and compared to similar studies from both temperate and tropical estuaries.