Impacts of precipitation events and land-use changes on West African river discharges during the years 1951–2000

The aim of this article is to determine the main sources of the variability of large West African river discharges during the years 1951–2000. The analysis is based on river discharge simulations of ORCHIDEE Land-Surface Model forced by NCC (NCEP Corrected by CRU) over this period. In a first part, an analysis of the partitionning of precipitation in the different basins is given. It is first shown that total runoff is more variable and better correlated to precipitation than evapotranspiration over every basin on annual means. Then the more complex link between evapotranspiration and precipitation is investigated through correlation and regression analyses. Over the “dry” (soudano-sahelian) catchments, evapotranspiration is the most variable and mainly correlated to the annual precipitation. Over the “humid” (equatorial) catchment, it is mainly correlated to the season length and does not depend on other characteristics of the precipitation. Over the “intermediate” (guinean) catchments, annual precipitation and season length both play a role, along with the average intensity of rainfall events, and other characteristics such as the number of long breaks in the rainy season. A second part focuses on the way ORCHIDEE reproduces the variability of river discharges for the years 1951–2000. It is shown that relative anomalies are correctly simulated by ORCHIDEE forced by NCC over every catchment without taking into account any land-use change. Moreover, no significant difference is found in the accuracy with which ORCHIDEE simulates the humid (1953–1970) and the dry (1973–1990) periods over two selected catchments. This implies that the impact of land-use changes was much less important than the impact of precipitation changes over the years 1951–2000 in large West African catchments.     

Vulnerability and its discontents: the past,present, and future of climate change vulnerability research

The agri-food sector must adapt to changes in climate variability, while also helping to mitigate climate change. Measures termed ‘triple-win’ mitigate and adapt to climate change, while also improving soil health, thereby increasing yields. These measures might appear to be the easiest to implement, but in practice, barriers prevent full realisation. This study aims to move beyond previous research efforts that identify and categorise barriers by (i) revealing hidden barriers, (ii) understanding the interactions between barriers and (iii) exploring ways to address barriers. A case study focusing on crop rotation as a triple-win strategy in Ukraine demonstrates how a participant-driven iterative research approach can achieve these objectives. During semi-structured interviews with farmers and stakeholders, crop rotation emerged as an area of considerable dissensus with stakeholders commonly citing the greedy behaviour of producers as the problem. Further discussion indicated that the political economy of Ukraine caused financial constraints for producers and Q methodology allowed for additional clarity on the opposing views of crop rotation. Three factors emerged: producer insecurity, national insecurity and business insecurity. These three perspectives reveal contrasting priorities with producer insecurity and business insecurity concerned with the conditions under which producers must operate, while national insecurity has a focus on improving agricultural production to benefit the nation. Consensus statements across all factors could provide first steps to addressing barriers and an opportunity to open discussions amongst stakeholders. Finally, barriers arising from political processes demonstrate that climate policy needs to be integrated with other sector-specific policy decisions.     

Water Table Uncertainties due to Uncertainties in Structure and Properties of an Unconfined Aquifer

We consider two sources of geology‐related uncertainty in making predictions of the steady‐state water table elevation for an unconfined aquifer. That is the uncertainty in the depth to base of the aquifer and in the hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Stochastic approaches to hydrological modeling commonly use geostatistical techniques to account for hydraulic conductivity uncertainty within the aquifer. In the absence of well data allowing derivation of a relationship between geophysical and hydrological parameters, the use of geophysical data is often limited to constraining the structural boundaries. If we recover the base of an unconfined aquifer from an analysis of geophysical data, then the associated uncertainties are a consequence of the geophysical inversion process. In this study, we illustrate this by quantifying water table uncertainties for the unconfined aquifer formed by the paleochannel network around the Kintyre Uranium deposit in Western Australia. The focus of the Bayesian parametric bootstrap approach employed for the inversion of the available airborne electromagnetic data is the recovery of the base of the paleochannel network and the associated uncertainties. This allows us to then quantify the associated influences on the water table in a conceptualized groundwater usage scenario and compare the resulting uncertainties with uncertainties due to an uncertain hydraulic conductivity distribution within the aquifer. Our modeling shows that neither uncertainties in the depth to the base of the aquifer nor hydraulic conductivity uncertainties alone can capture the patterns of uncertainty in the water table that emerge when the two are combined.     

Enabling affordable omnidirectional subsurface extended image volumes via probing

Image gathers as a function of subsurface offset are an important tool for the inference of rock properties and velocity analysis in areas of complex geology. Traditionally, these gathers are thought of as multidimensional correlations of the source and receiver wavefields. The bottleneck in computing these gathers lies in the fact that one needs to store, compute, and correlate these wavefields for all shots in order to obtain the desired image gathers. Therefore, the image gathers are typically only computed for a limited number of subsurface points and for a limited range of subsurface offsets, which may cause problems in complex geological areas with large geologic dips. We overcome increasing computational and storage costs of extended image volumes by introducing a formulation that avoids explicit storage and removes the customary and expensive loop over shots found in conventional extended imaging. As a result, we end up with a matrix–vector formulation from which different image gathers can be formed and with which amplitude‐versus‐angle and wave‐equation migration velocity analysis can be performed without requiring prior information on the geologic dips. Aside from demonstrating the formation of two‐way extended image gathers for different purposes and at greatly reduced costs, we also present a new approach to conduct automatic wave‐equation‐based migration‐velocity analysis. Instead of focusing in particular offset directions and preselected subsets of subsurface points, our method focuses every subsurface point for all subsurface offset directions using a randomized probing technique. As a consequence, we obtain good velocity models at low cost for complex models without the need to provide information on the geologic dips.     

Implications of Warm Rain in Shallow Cumulus and Congestus Clouds for Large-Scale Circulations

Space-borne observations reveal that 20–40% of marine convective clouds below the freezing level produce rain. In this paper we speculate what the prevalence of warm rain might imply for convection and large-scale circulations over tropical oceans. We present results using a two-column radiative–convective model of hydrostatic, nonlinear flow on a non-rotating sphere, with parameterized convection and radiation, and review ongoing efforts in high-resolution modeling and observations of warm rain. The model experiments investigate the response of convection and circulation to sea surface temperature (SST) gradients between the columns and to changes in a parameter that controls the conversion of cloud condensate to rain. Convection over the cold ocean collapses to a shallow mode with tops near 850 hPa, but a congestus mode with tops near 600 hPa can develop at small SST differences when warm rain formation is more efficient. Here, interactive radiation and the response of the circulation are crucial: along with congestus a deeper moist layer develops, which leads to less low-level radiative cooling, a smaller buoyancy gradient between the columns, and therefore a weaker circulation and less subsidence over the cold ocean. The congestus mode is accompanied with more surface precipitation in the subsiding column and less surface precipitation in the deep convecting column. For the shallow mode over colder oceans, circulations also weaken with more efficient warm rain formation, but only marginally. Here, more warm rain reduces convective tops and the boundary layer depth—similar to Large-Eddy Simulation (LES) studies—which reduces the integrated buoyancy gradient. Elucidating the impact of warm rain can benefit from large-domain high-resolution simulations and observations. Parameterizations of warm rain may be constrained through collocated cloud and rain profiling from ground, and concurrent changes in convection and rain in subsiding and convecting branches of circulations may be revealed from a collocation of space-borne sensors, including the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) and upcoming Aeolus missions.     

Extent and nature of hydrocarbon occurrence in the groundwater of Kuwait

A study, aimed at characterizing the nature of anthropogenic and biogenic hydrocarbon contamination in the groundwater of Kuwait, was carried out using fluorescence spectroscopy and other analytical techniques. The results of these analyses have demonstrated that the groundwater in certain areas of northern Kuwait has been significantly impacted by contamination originating from the oil-contaminated surface soils. The study revealed that a water-soluble fraction (WSF) of the crude oil surface contamination appeared to be slowly leaching into the freshwater lenses located in the area. The study also showed that hydrocarbon pollutants were practically absent in the brackish water areas of central and southern Kuwait, except for a few isolated sites. However, nonpetroleum hydrocarbons, with ultraviolet-visible absorption characteristics and fluorescence characteristics typically associated with humic substances, were observed at a few sites in the brackish water fields.     

Geochemistry and potential use of groundwater in the Rocca Busambra area (Sicily, Italy)

In the Rocca Busambra area (mid-west Sicily, Italy), from November 1999 to July 2002, 23 water points including wells and springs were sampled and studied for their chemical and isotopic compositions. Two rain gauges were also installed at different altitudes, and rainwater was collected monthly to determine the isotopic composition. The obtained results revealed the Rocca Busambra carbonate complex as being the main recharge area on account of its high permeability value. From a chemical view point, two main groups of water can be distinguished: calcium–magnesium–bicarbonate-type and calcium–magnesium–chloride–sulphate-type waters. The first group reflects the dissolution of the carbonate rocks; the second group probably originates from circulation within flyschoid sediments. Three water wells differ from the other samples due to their relatively high Na and K content, which probably is to be referred to a marked interaction with the “Calcareniti di Corleone” formation, which is rich in glauconite [(K, Na)(Fe³⁺, Al, Mg)₂(Si, Al)₄O₁₀(OH)₂]. In accordance with WHO guidelines for drinking water (2004), almost all the samples collected can be considered drinkable, with the exception of four of them, whose NO₃ ⁻, F⁻ and Na⁺ contents exceed the limits. On the contrary, the sampled groundwater studied is basically suitable for irrigation.     

Comparison of LiDAR waveform processing methods for very shallow water bathymetry using Raman,near‐infrared and green signals

Airborne light detection and ranging (LiDAR) bathymetry appears to be a useful technology for bed topography mapping of non‐navigable areas, offering high data density and a high acquisition rate. However, few studies have focused on continental waters, in particular, on very shallow waters (<2 m) where it is difficult to extract the surface and bottom positions that are typically mixed in the green LiDAR signal. This paper proposes two new processing methods for depth extraction based on the use of different LiDAR signals [green, near‐infrared (NIR), Raman] of the SHOALS‐1000T sensor. They have been tested on a very shallow coastal area (Golfe du Morbihan, France) as an analogy to very shallow rivers. The first method is based on a combination of mathematical and heuristic methods using the green and the NIR LiDAR signals to cross validate the information delivered by each signal. The second method extracts water depths from the Raman signal using statistical methods such as principal components analysis (PCA) and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis. The obtained results are then compared to the reference depths, and the performances of the different methods, as well as their advantages/disadvantages are evaluated. The green/NIR method supplies 42% more points compared to the operator process, with an equivalent mean error (?4·2 cm verusu ?4·5 cm) and a smaller standard deviation (25·3 cm verusu 33·5 cm). The Raman processing method provides very scattered results (standard deviation of 40·3 cm) with the lowest mean error (?3·1 cm) and 40% more points. The minimum detectable depth is also improved by the two presented methods, being around 1 m for the green/NIR approach and 0·5 m for the statistical approach, compared to 1·5 m for the data processed by the operator. Despite its ability to measure other parameters like water temperature, the Raman method needed a large amount of reference data to provide reliable depth measurements, as opposed to the green/NIR method. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Two stages of high-pressure metamorphism in the Main Uralian Fault area (northern Urals)

Metamorphism in the northern sector of the Main Uralian Fault (MUF) area, northern Urals, is considered by the example of the Salatim glaucophane-schist and Belokamenka kyanite-staurolite complexes. New isotope-geochronological dates for metamorphic rocks of the MUF area are presented. The obtained data evidence the existence of two metamorphic events, of Early and Late Devonian ages, which apparently correspond to the wedging-up of subduction paleozones.     

Canary in a coal mine: perceptions of climate change risks and response options among Canadian mine operations

A survey documenting how climate change is perceived and responded to by Canadian mine operations was administered to a random sample of practitioners working at mine sites across Canada. Key findings include: (1) Mines are sensitive to climatic hazards; (2) There is concern about climate change among mine practitioners, but the majority have not yet noticed climate change to be affecting operations; (3) Future climate change is expected to have negative impacts for mine operations; (4) Mines are responding to climate change mainly through efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions but also through adaptation, although to a lesser degree; and (5) Knowledge of future climate change projections and impacts is limited, potentially constraining understanding of the nature of climate change risks. The survey compliments previous work documenting perceptions among upper level management on climate change in the Canadian mining industry. The results from both surveys are largely consistent, establishing that the mining sector perceives climate change as an emerging risk and is developing response options, but needs to invest more time and resources for adaptation to what are inevitable changes in climate. The results support the need for targeted in-depth research to assess the vulnerability of mining to climate change and to evaluate response options.