Assessing decarbonization pathways and their implications for energy security policies in Japan

For countries without sufficient fossil fuel resources such as Japan, climate policies in the mid- to long term need to satisfy requirements not only for decarbonisation but also for energy security in the context of limitations on renewable energies and nuclear power. This study assesses the feasibility of decarbonization pathways to 2050 and their effects on energy security, considering the latest energy and climate policies in Japan using the AIM/Enduse model. The analysis illustrates that deep decarbonization by 2050 is technically feasible even without nuclear power based on three elements: energy efficiency improvements, low-carbon electricity and electrification in end-use sectors. These decarbonization pathways, in the long term, could also contribute to enhanced energy security, reducing import dependency to less than a half of the total primary energy and reducing import bills for fossil fuels by around 70% compared with the current level. Notably, renewable energies could play a strategically significant role in satisfying both climate and energy security requirements. In the mid-term (to 2030), however, although GHG emissions are reduced by 14–20% from 1990 levels, import dependency is relatively stable at today's levels, particularly without the restart of nuclear power. Given the limited potential for renewable energies in the mid-term, it is suggested that the availability of nuclear power will have negative impacts on carbon intensity and energy security, and policies to enhance the security of fossil fuels, including diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, will be required for the foreseeable future.

Policy relevance

Considering the scarcity of indigenous fossil fuel resources and the uncertain availability of nuclear power in Japan, renewable energy could play a strategically significant role in replacing unabated fossil fuels, which would contribute to satisfying both climate and energy security requirements in the long term. However, the renewable energy potential is insufficient to eliminate the requirement for fossil fuels by 2030; therefore the unavailability of nuclear power would affect energy security considerably. Thus, policies in the mid-term would still require enhancement of the energy security of fossil fuels, including the diversification of fuel sources and supply routes, as well as alleviation of the impacts of price volatility.     

Adjustable vertical vibration isolator with a variable ellipse curve mechanism

This paper presents a passive vertical quasi‐zero‐stiffness vibration isolator intended for relatively small objects. The present isolator has features of compactness, long stroke, and adjustability to various load capabilities. To realize these features, we use constant‐force springs, which sustain constant load regardless of their elongation, and propose a variable ellipse curve mechanism that is inspired by the principle of ellipsographs. The variable ellipse curve mechanism can convert the restoring force of the horizontally placed constant‐force springs to the vertical restoring force of the vibration isolator. At the same time as converting the direction, the vertical restoring force can be adjusted by changing the ratio of the semi‐minor axis to the semi‐major one of the ellipse. In this study, a prototype of a class of quasi‐zero‐stiffness vibration isolator with the proposed variable ellipse curve mechanism is created. Shaking table tests are performed to demonstrate the efficacy of the present mechanism, where the prototype is subjected to various sinusoidal and earthquake ground motions. It is demonstrated through the shaking table tests that the prototype can reduce the response acceleration within the same specified tolerance even when the mass of the vibration isolated object is changed. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Direct measurements of mid-depth circulation in the Shikoku basin by tracking SOFAR floats

Mid-depth circulation of the Shikoku Basin was measured by tracking four SOFAR floats drifting at the 1,500 m layer. Two floats were released on 17 April 1988 at 30°N, 135°59E and tracked for 433 days. Another two were released on 3 November 1988 at 29°52N and 133°25E, and tracked for 234 days. Two floats flowed clockwise around the Shikoku Warm Water Mass with a diameter of 400 km centered at 31°N and 136°E and a mean drift speed of 4.5 cm sec^–1. One of the floats showed about ten counterclockwise rotations with a period of about 8 days and a maximum speed of 80 cm sec^–1 in the sea area west to the Izu Ridge. In the east to Kyushu, a southward flow was observed under the northward flowing Kuroshio. The southward flow of 4 cm sec^–1 drift speed was considered to be a part of the counterclockwise circulation at deep layers along the perimeter of the Shikoku Basin. One float remained for 234 days in a limited area of 100 km by 150 km in the western part of the basin.     

Deep-sea submersible survey in the Suruga, Sagami and Japan Trenches: preliminary results of the 1985 Kaiko cruise, Leg 2

Nine submersible dives were made in three trenches off central Japan, between 2990 and 5900 m of water depth. Our observations confirm the interpretation that Daiichi-Kashima Seamount is a Cretaceous guyot formed on the Pacific plate that has traveled into the Japan Trench. We also confirmed the previous interpretation of a large normal fault that splits the seamount in two halves, the lower one being now subducting beneath the Japan margin. Compressional deformation was identified within the lower part of the inner slope in front of the seamount. The pattern of deformation that affects Quaternary sediments is in agreement with the present kinematics of the convergence between the Pacific plate and Japan. Deep-water (5700 m) clam colonies are associated with advection of fluids, driven by the subduction-related overpressures. In the northern slope of the Boso Canyon, along the Sagami Trough system (Philippine Sea plate-Japan boundary), the deformation affecting a thick upper Miocene to lower Pliocene sequence indicates two directions of shortening: a N175°E direction which is consistent with the present relative motion along the Sagami Trough (N285–N300°E) and a N30°E direction which could be related to a more northerly direction of convergence that occured during the early Quaternary and earlier.     

Earthquake design considerations in reinforced concrete columns

Damages resulting from the Tokachi-Oki earthquake of 1968 demonstrated that many code-designed reinforced concrete columns do not have adequate earthquake resistance. A review of Japanese research revealed that the axial force ratio, the moment arm ratio, and the type and ratio of transverse reinforcement control the resistance and ductility of concrete columns. A recent experimental study at the Kajima Institute of Construction Technology evaluated the resistance of columns with three types of transverse reinforcement and three reinforcement ratios subjected to repeated alternating loads. Tied and spiral columns proved to be superior to hooped columns.     

Mesoscale current fluctuations observed in the deep western North Pacific

A set of simultaneous long-term, deep current measurements was taken using a moored array in the mid-ocean of the western North Pacific near 30°N, 146°E. Five current meters at three stations provided good quality records over 84 days. Low-frequency current fluctuations with meridional dominance are clearly seen in the deep layer records. They are consistent with signals of a mesoscale current fluctuation which has a period of about 100 days, an east-west wave length of about 200 km, and a westward phase propagation with a speed of about 2 cm sec^–1. Bottom intensification of the east component of low-frequency current fluctuations is also observed.     

Path and volume transport of the Kuroshio current in Sagami Bay and their relationship to cold water masses near Izu Peninsula

The path of the Kuroshio in Sagami Bay was surveyed through drifter tracking from Oshima-West Channel to Oshima-East Channel. A subsurface drifter with a drogue at 300 m depth flowed around Oshima from Oshima-West Channel to Oshima-East Channel. A difference in flow directions between the upper and lower layers was apparent in the northwest of Oshima. Flow directions there were shown to change from north in the surface layer to east in the bottom layer, and this was confirmed with moored currentmeters.A profile of northward current velocity was estimated from measurements in six layers with currentmeters deployed in the Oshima-West Channel. The profile shows a core of northward flow along the eastern bottom slope and a weak southward flow along the western bottom slope. Volume transport of the Kuroshio into Sagami Bay was estimated to be 1.8×10⁶m³sec^–1 from the profile.Long-term current measurement showed that southward flows were observed in Oshima-West Channel in July 1977, May 1978 and April 1979. Cold or warm water masses appearing south of the Izu Peninsula are suggested to have caused the changes.Displacement of the cold water mass in July 1977 is discussed on the basis of current measurements and offshore oceanographic conditions.     

Spatial structure within a dense bed of the brittle starOphiura sarsi (Ophiuroidea: Echinodermata) in the bathyal zone off otsuchi,Northeastern Japan

Photographic observations of the brittle starOphiura sarsi were conducted at a depth of approximately 280 m in the Pacific Ocean off tsuchi, northeastern Japan. Bottom photographs showed that this ophiuroid occurred in high densities, uniformly covering the sea floor and that other megafauna was rare. The mean density and biomass of ophiuroids in the dense bed were estimated to be 373 m^–2 and 124 g m^–2, respectively. Ophiuroids comprised 99% of all megabenthic organisms in terms of number of individuals, and megafaunal assemblage of the dense bed showed very low species diversity.O. sarsi exhibited a regular spatial pattern avoiding contact with conspecific neighbors. This regular spatial pattern was disrupted by certain other organisms, around which halo-like, bare areas were observed. The size and shape of these halo-like areas varied and were apparently related to the body size and/or motility of the organisms. In the present observation areaO. sarsi covered 96% of the sea bottom, and the remaining 4% was occupied by other organisms and their halo-like bare areas.     

Concentrations of 222 Rn, Its Short-Lived Daughters And 212 Pb And Their Ratios Under Complex Atmospheric Conditions And Topography

Atmospheric activity concentrations of ²¹²Pb and short-lived ²²²Rndaughters, together with meteorological elements, have been observed continuously atthree sites at Kamisaibara Village in Japan. In addition, atmospheric activity concentrationof ²²²Rn, equilibrium-equivalent concentration of ²²²Rn and conditionsof the lower atmosphere were observed for three intensive observation periods at Akawase,one of the three sites in Kamisaibara Village. The equilibrium-equivalent concentration of²²²Rn is almost the same as the atmospheric activity concentration of short-lived²²²Rn daughters.The activity concentrations of ²¹²Pb and the short-lived ²²²Rn daughtersand their ratio were low in the daytime owing to convective mixing, and high at nightowing to the surface-based inversion during periods of no precipitation. Their variationshave several patterns corresponding to the scale of the drainage wind or weak mixing.Mechanical mixing due to strong winds through both day and night during the first andsecond observation periods made the atmospheric activity concentrations of ²¹²Pb and the short-lived ²²²Rn daughters continuously low. However, their ratios werecontinuously high during the first period yet continuously low during the second period.This difference can be explained by the effect ofextraction of ²²⁰Rn and ²²²Rndue to strong winds and snow cover. There were also cases in which the ratio of theatmospheric activity concentration of ²¹²Pb to that of the short-lived ²²²Rndaughters at night was equal to or less than the ratio in the daytime. Thisinverse trend, asin the periods of no precipitation mentioned above, is considered to be due to near-neutralconditions on these nights.We find a difference in the ratio of the equilibrium-equivalent concentration of²²²Rn (the activity concentration of short-lived ²²²Rn daughters) tothe activity concentration of ²²²Rn during the first observation period and thatduring the second. The difference can be explained by snow cover on the ground. Wealso find differences among the ratios of the activity concentration of the short-lived²²²Rn daughters to that of ²²²Rn during the three observation periods.These differences can be explained by the submergence of paddy fields.