Methodology for the estimation of the increase in time loss due to future increase in tropical cyclone intensity in Japan

The present paper develops a methodology for estimating the risks and consequences of possible future increases in tropical cyclone intensities that would allow policy makers to relatively quickly evaluate the cost of different mitigation strategies. The methodology simulates future tropical cyclones by modifying the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2007. It then uses a Monte Carlo Simulation to obtain the expected number of hours that a certain area can expect to be affected by winds of a given strength. The methodology outlined has a range of applications, and the present paper shows as an example the calculation of the expected cost of mitigation of the increased downtime for Japanese ports by 2085 for a variety of economic growth scenarios.     

Dissakisite-(Ce) chemical composition: some implications for its origins

Euhedral dissakisites from Trimouns dolomite mine, France, is compositionally zoned. Back-scattered electron (BSE) images reveal that each of the described dissakisite crystals has three distinct compositional zones: normal zoned core (Mg-rich), oscillatory zoned middle (Ca–Al-rich) and homogeneous rim (Fe–ΣREE-rich). The latter zone with Fe²⁺ > Mg corresponds to allanite-(Ce). Dissakisite-(Ce) also displays pronounced zoning in Fe/Mg which may suggest that the temperature of crystallization continuously decreased from core to rim. Despite a systematic increase in Fe/Mg of the dissakisite with an allanite rim, there is no monotonic decrease in the REE zoning: the normal zoned core and homogeneous rim are rich in La, Ce and Pr, but the relatively REE-poor oscillatory zoned middle is relatively abundant in Y, Sm and Gd. Discontinuous variation in REE content of the dissakisite, with the allanite rim may indicate a localized change in either the relative concentration of various ligands or pH of the crystallizing fluid. Observations under the polarizing microscope confirm that the different zones have simultaneous extinction. These chemical and optical observations suggest that epitaxial crystallization of dissakisite, from Trimouns, passes through three formation stages. The ternary Fe²⁺–Mg²⁺–(Al + Fe)³⁺ diagram illustrates that in general dissakisite can be classified into two groups, (Al + Fe)³⁺-rich and an Mg-rich; dissakisite from Trimouns belongs to the former group. Chondrite-normalized REE patterns of dissakisites from Trimouns are similar to those of allanites formed by hydrothermal fluids. In conclusion, it is clear from the above two geochemical characteristics that dissakisites from Trimouns are of (Al + Fe)³⁺-type, and were derived from hydrothermal fluids.     

Crystal chemistry of volcanic allanites indicative of naturally induced oxidation-dehydrogenation

The crystal chemistry of volcanic allanites from both the Youngest Toba Tuff (YTT), Sumatra, Indonesia and SK100 volcanic ash beds (SK100-VAB), Niigata, Japan has been examined by electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopic analysis (FTIR), and single-crystal structure analysis. In the FTIR study, based on the Diamond ATR accessory, YTT and SK100- VAB allanites were observed to have different OH contents, respectively: the former has 0.64 wt% H₂O (OH: 0.40 apfu.), while the latter has 1.65 wt% H₂O (OH: 1.00 apfu.). The crystal structures of these two allanites have been refined to individual R indices (3.64 and 4.25) based on 1350 observed reflections (|Fo| > 4sig|Fo|) measured using a single-crystal diffractometer with MoKα X-radiation. The OH-poor YTT allanite has a shorter b axis, a longer c axis, and larger β value than the relatively OH-rich SK100-VAB one. The bond valence sums of O4 (accepter oxygen for H atom) and O10 (donor oxygen for H atom) are 1.962 and 1.709 v.u. for YTT allanite (valence sum: 3.671 v.u.) and 1.754 and 1.271 v.u. for SK100-VAB one (valence sum: 3.025 v.u.). The difference from the ideal total bond valence value (4.00 v.u.) of O4 and O10 in YTT allanite (0.33 v.u.) is smaller than that in SK100-VAB (0.98 v.u.). These difference values are also broadly consistent with the corresponding differences in OH content between the YTT (OH: 0.40 apfu.) and SK100-VAB allanites (OH: 1.00 apfu.) determined by FTIR- ATR. Chemical analyses, FTIR-ATR and crystal structure refinement of YTT and SK100-VAB allanites yielded the following crystal chemical formula: YTT: (Ca_0.83Mn²⁺ _0.06Fe²⁺ _0.11)(La_0.24Ce_0.32Pr_0.04Nd_0.11Sm_0.02Th_0.04Ca_0.21)(Al_0.73Fe³⁺ _0.19Ti_0.08)(Al_0.89Fe³⁺ _0.11)(Fe²⁺ _0.22Fe³⁺ _0.62Mg_0.16)(SiO₄)Si₂O₇O_1.6(OH)_0.4, SK100-VAB: (Ca_0.81Fe²⁺ _0.13Mn²⁺ _0.06)(La_0.22Ce_0.34Pr_0.05Nd_0.13Sm_0.02Th_0.02Ca_0.22)(Al_0.76Fe³⁺ _0.19Ti_0.05)Al_1.00(Fe²⁺ _0.73Fe³⁺ _0.17Mg_0.10)(Si_0.96Al_0.04O₄)Si₂O₇O(OH). Therefore, it is concluded that welding of the Youngest Toba Tuff caused the following post-crystallization changes to occur in YTT allanite: oxidation of Fe²⁺ to Fe³⁺, release of H₂, and the concomitant replacement of OH^? by O^2?. These oxidation and dehydrogenation processes advanced during the welding to thereby produce oxyallanite. Oxyallanite had been reported only in laboratory studies where it was produced by heating natural allanite. Our report on natural oxyallanite suggests that it may be present in other welded silicic volcanic rocks as well.     

Occurrence of water ponding on soil surfaces depending on infiltration rates on Mongolian rangeland

The occurrence of water ponding on soil surfaces during and after heavy rainfall produces surface run‐off or surface water accumulation in low‐lying areas, which might reduce the water supply to soils and result in a reduction of the soil water that plants can use, especially in arid climates. On Mongolian rangeland, we observed ponded water on the surface of a specific soil condition subjected to a heavy rainfall of 30 mm/hr. By contrast, ponded water was not observed for the same type of soil where livestock grazing had been removed for 6–8 years via a fence or for nearby soil containing less clay. We measured the infiltration rate (the saturated hydraulic conductivity of the surface soil, K_s) of the three sites by applying ponded water on the soil surface (an intake rate test). The results showed that K_s in the rangeland was lower than the rainfall intensity in the site where water ponded on the soil surface; however, K_s of the soil inside of the fence has recovered to 3 times that of the soil outside of the fence to exceed the rainfall intensity. Heavy rainfall that exceeds the infiltration rate occurs several times a year at the livestock grazing site where we observed ponded water. Slight water repellency of the soil reduces rain infiltration to increase the possibility of surface ponding for the soil.     

K–Ar age and geochemistry of the SW Japan Paleogene cauldron cluster: Implications for Eocene–Oligocene thermo-tectonic reactivation

Systematic K–Ar dating and geochemical analyses of Paleogene cauldrons in the Sanin Belt of SW Japan have been made to explore the relationship between the timing of their formation and the Paleogene subduction history of SW Japan documented in the Shimanto accretionary complex. We also examine the magma sources and tectonics beneath the backarc region of SW Japan at the eastern plate boundary of Eurasia.Fifty-eight new K–Ar ages and 19 previously reported radiometric age data show that the cauldrons formed during Middle Eocene to Early Oligocene time (43–30 Ma), following a period of magmatic hiatus from 52 to 43 Ma. The hiatus coincides with absence of an accretionary prism in the Shimanto Belt. Resumption of the magmatism that formed the cauldron cluster in the backarc was concurrent with voluminous influx of terrigenous detritus to the trench, as a common tectono-thermal event within a subduction system.The cauldrons are composed of medium-K calc-alkaline basalts to rhyolites and their plutonic equivalents. These rocks are characterized by lower concentrations of large ion lithophile elements (LILE) including K₂O, Ba, Rb, Th, U and Li, lower (La/Yb)_n ratios, lower initial Sr isotopic ratios (0.7037–0.7052) and higher ε_Nd(T) values (?0.5 to +3.5) relative to Late Cretaceous to Early Paleogene equivalents. There are clear trends from enriched to depleted signatures with decreasing age, from the Late Cretaceous to the Paleogene. The same isotopic shift is also confirmed in lower crust-derived xenoliths, and is interpreted as mobilization of pre-existing enriched lithospheric mantle by upwelling depleted asthenosphere.Relatively elevated geothermal gradients are presumed to have prevailed over wide areas of the backarc and forearc of the SW Japan arc-trench system during the Eocene to Oligocene. Newly identified Late Eocene low silica adakites and high-Mg andesites in the Sanin Belt and Early Eocene A-type granites in the SW Korea Peninsula probably formed due to upwelling of hot asthenosphere and subduction of a young plate.The backarc region was an extensional tectonic setting, and some Paleogene rift basins and Sanin Belt cauldrons occur in linear arrays. The Eocene–Oligocene Sanin-SE Korea continental arc lies on the NE extension of the East China Sea Basin, the initial stage of which probably formed by continental arc rifting. This rifting may have been triggered by upwelling of hot asthenosphere into the wedge space created by rollback of the subducted slab, in response to decreased convergence rate between the Pacific and Eurasian plates.     

Classification of Tsunami and Evacuation Areas

On March 11, 2011, a large earthquake that occurred offshore the north-east coast of Japan generated a large tsunami which devastated extensive areas of the Tohoku coastline. Despite Japan being considered a country well prepared for these types of disasters, large casualties were recorded, with numerous discussions amongst the Japanese coastal engineering community ensuing. As a result, two different levels of tsunamis have been proposed and now recognized in Japan, depending on the frequency of such extreme events. The idea that hard measures can protect the lives of inhabitants of coastal areas has been abandoned, and these measures are only considered to be effective in protecting properties against the more frequent but lower magnitude events. Soft measures should always be used to protect against the loss of lives, and to this respect, the authors of the paper propose the introduction of a Classification of Evacuation Areas, to show which of these should be prioritized by residents as they seek to evacuate.     

Antifouling herbicides in the coastal waters of western Japan

Residue analyses of some antifouling herbicides (Diuron, Irgarol 1051 and the latter's degradation product M1, which is also known as GS26575), were conducted in waters collected along the coast of western Japan. In total, 142 water samples were collected from fishery harbours (99 sites), marinas (27 sites), and small ports (16 sites) around the Seto Inland Sea, the Kii Peninsula, and Lake Biwa, in August 1999. A urea-based herbicide, Diuron, was positively identified for the first time in Japanese aquatic environments. Diuron was detected in 121 samples (86%) up to a highest concentration of 3.05 microg/l, and was found in 86% of samples from fishery harbours, 89% from marinas, and 75% from ports. Four freshwater samples out of 11 collected at Lake Biwa contained Diuron. Neither Irgarol 1051 nor M1 was found in the lake waters, but both were found in many coastal waters. Irgarol 1051 was found in 84 samples (60%) at a highest concentration of 0.262 microg/l. The concentrations detected were of similar magnitude to those in our previous surveys, taken in 1997 and 1998. M1 was found in 40 samples (28%) up to a highest concentration of 0.080 microg/l. The concentrations detected were generally lower than those found in our previous surveys. The detection frequency among fishery harbours, marinas, and ports was 57-70% for Irgarol 1051 and 25-30% for M1. Ninety-five per cent of the coastal waters in which M1 was detected also contained Irgarol 1051, and 93% of the samples in which Irgarol 1051 was detected also contained Diuron. These results clearly suggest that commercial ship-bottom paints containing both Diuron and Irgarol 1051 are used extensively in the survey area.     

An atomic level study of rhenium and radiogenic osmium in molybdenite

Local atomic structures of Re and radiogenic Os in molybdenite from the Onganja mine, Namibia, were examined using X-ray absorption fine structure (XAFS). Rhenium L_III-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) show that the oxidation state of Re, the interatomic distances between Re and the neighboring atoms, and the coordination number of Re to S are very similar to those of Mo in molybdenite. The results confirm that Re is present as Re(IV) in the Mo site in molybdenite.Measurement of L_III-edge XANES and EXAFS of a minor concentration (8.55 ppm) of radiogenic Os was accomplished in fluorescence mode by removing the interfering X-rays from Re and other elements using a crystal analyzer system. The data indicate that the oxidation state of radiogenic Os is Os(III) and Os(IV) and clearly different from Os(II) in natural sulfide minerals, such as OsS₂ (erlichmanite). XANES data also suggest that radiogenic Os does not form a secondary Os phase, such as OsS₂ or Os metal, in molybdenite.EXAFS of radiogenic Os was successfully simulated assuming that Os is present in the Mo site in molybdenite. The data are consistent with the XANES data; Os does not form Os phases in molybdenite. The EXAFS simulation showed that the interatomic distance between Os and S is 2.27 Å, which is 0.12 Å smaller than the distances of Re-S and Mo-S (2.39 Å) in molybdenite. Similar valences and ionic sizes of Re and Mo in molybdenite support the fact that large amounts of Re can be incorporated into the Mo site as has been observed in previous studies, whereas the different properties of Os compared to Mo and Re suggested here support much lower abundance of common Os in molybdenite. This makes molybdenite an ideal mineral for the Re-Os geochronometer as shown in many studies. However, the shorter distance between radiogenic Os and S compared to those of Re-S and Mo-S in molybdenite suggests that the radiogenic Os has a smaller ionic size than Re(IV) and Mo(IV). Furthermore, Os may be partly present as Os(III). Smaller and lower charge Os can diffuse faster than larger and higher charge Re in molybdenite at a given set of conditions. Hence, our study provides an atomic-level explanation for the high mobility of Os compared to Re, which has been suggested by earlier workers using laser ablation ICP-MS.