Modelling a storm surge under future climate scenarios: case study of extratropical cyclone Gudrun (2005)

Weather Research and Forecasting atmosphere model and Finite Volume Community Ocean Model were for the first time used under the pseudo-climate simulation approach, to study the parameters of an extreme storm in the Baltic Sea area. We reconstructed the met-ocean conditions during the historical storm Gudrun (which caused a record-high +275 cm surge in Pärnu Bay on 9 January 2005) and simulated the future equivalent of Gudrun by modifying the background conditions using monthly mean value differences in sea surface temperature (SST), atmospheric air temperature and relative humidity from MIROC5 in accordance with the IPCC scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 for 2050 and 2100. The simulated storm route and storm surge parameters were in good accordance with the observed ones. Despite expecting the continuation of recently observed intensification of cyclonic activity in winter months, our numerical simulations showed that intensity of the strongest storms and storm surges in the Baltic Sea might not increase by the end of twenty-first century. Unlike tropical cyclones, which derive their energy from the increasing SST, the extratropical cyclones (ETCs) harvest their primary energy from the thermal differences on the sides of the polar front, which may decrease if the Arctic warms up. For climatological generalizations on future ETCs, however, it is necessary to re-calculate a larger number of storms, including those with different tracks and in different thermal conditions.     

Extreme Infrared Stars Discovered in Magellanic Cloud Globular Clusters

We report preliminary results of our systematic survey for infrared stars in the globular clusters of the Magellanic Clouds. In the course of an ISOCAM survey for AGB stars in the intermediate-age clusters, we have discovered extremely red AGB stars in NGC 419 and NGC 1978. From their colours and luminosities, they are thought to be experiencing intense mass-loss and to be in the final or superwind phase of the AGB evolution. However, they seem to be of somewhat lower luminosity than the corresponding visible AGB stars when only the mid-infrared data are taken into account. This suggests that hitherto unobserved infrared excesses may exist at longer wavelengths. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Classification of Japanese rivers by heavy metals in bottom mud

Bottom mud was collected from the upper and lower reaches of 92 rivers in Japan to determine the distribution of 0.5N-HCI-soluble heavy metals. The average concentrations of Cu, Zn, Pb, and Cd in the mud from the lower reaches were from two to three times higher than those in the upper reaches. Japanese rivers were classified according to the degree of heavy metal pollution by using the values of 0.5N-HCI-soluble metals in the lower reaches of rivers. The content of 0.5N-HCI-soluble heavy metals in the mud of the upper reaches was used as the standard value. The classification of rivers was made by a cluster analysis according to Euclidian distance. As a result, rivers in Japan could be classified into three groups based on the degree of metal pollution, and the classification was in agreement with the pollution index.     

Thinning of the near-earth (10∼15 RE) plasma sheet preceding the substorm expansion phase

The timing of the plasma-sheet thinning relative to the onset of the expansion phase of substorms is examined by the analysis of the OGO 5 electron (79 ± 23 keV) and proton (100～150 keV) data with the aid of simultaneous magnetic field observations. It is found that the timing of the thinning is significantly dependent on the distance. At $\text{x}{}^2\text{+ y}{}^2\text{? 15 R}{}_{\mathrm{E}}$ the thinning often starts before the onset, while at $\text{x}{}^2\text{+ y}{}^2\text{? 15 R}{}_{\mathrm{E}}$ it tends to occur after the onset, where x and y refer to solar magnetospheric coordinates. The thinning that precedes the expansion-phase onset has been found to reduce the thickness to ～1 R_E, and further thinning may occur in a spatially limited region. Hence it is conceivable that the formation of the neutral line characterizing the substorm expansion phase is the consequence of the thinning of the plasma sheet in the near-Earth region.     

Essential cellular modules for the proliferation of the primitive cell

Bacteria appeared early in the evolution of cellular life on planet Earth, and therefore the universally essential genes or biological pathways found across bacterial domains may represent fundamental genetic or cellular systems used in early life. The essential genes and the minimal gene set required to support bacterial life have recently been experimentally and computationally identified. It is, however,still hard to estimate the ancient genes present in primitive cells compared to the essential genes in contemporary bacteria, because we do not know how ancestral primitive cells lived and proliferated, and therefore cannot directly evaluate the essentiality of the genes in ancestral primitive cells. The cell wall is normally essential for bacterial proliferation and cellular division of walled bacterial cells is normally highly controlled by the essential FtsZ cell division machinery. But, bacteria are capable of reverting to their cell wall deficient ancestral form, called the "L-form". Unlike "normal" cells, L-forms divide by a simple physical mechanism based on the effects of membrane dynamics, suggesting a mode of primitive proliferation before the appearance of the cell wall. In this review, we summarize the experimental and computational investigations of minimal gene sets and discuss the minimal cellular modules required to support the proliferation of primitive cells, based on L-form proliferation.     

Tsunami awareness: a comparative assessment between Japan and the USA

Awareness about the threats posed by different types of coastal disasters has increased throughout the world, as people are exposed to the nature of these hazards through media reports on events in distant countries. This has resulted in coastal residents being aware about the destructive power of tsunamis, despite no such events having taken place in their country in recent times. Regardless of this increased awareness, it has been hypothesized that there is still need for local governments to enact adequate policies to raise the awareness of local residents, for example, by holding regular evacuation drills. The present research presents a comparative assessment of tsunami awareness in two tourist destinations in Japan and the USA, which was derived through structured questionnaire surveys of beach users in the city of Kamakura and various coastal cities in Florida. The results show how despite relatively high level of awareness tsunamis still pose a considerable risk to each of the communities, for example, due to shortcoming in evacuation knowledge and infrastructure.     

A nearshore wave breaking model

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Cosmic‐ray exposure age and heliocentric distance of the parent body of the Rumuruti chondrite PRE 95410

We measured concentrations and isotopic ratios of noble gases in the Rumuruti (R) chondrite Mount Prestrud (PRE) 95410, a regolith breccia exhibiting dark/light structures. The meteorite contains solar and cosmogenic noble gases. Based on the solar and cosmogenic noble gas compositions, we calculated a heliocentric distance of its parent body, a cosmic‐ray exposure age on the parent body regolith (parent body exposure age), and a cosmic‐ray exposure age in interplanetary space (space exposure age) of the meteorite. Assuming a constant solar wind flux, the estimated heliocentric distance was smaller than 1.4 ± 0.3 au, suggesting inward migration from the asteroid belt regions where the parent body formed. The largest known Mars Trojan 5261 Eureka is a potential parent body of PRE 95410. Alternatively, it is possible that the solar wind flux at the time of the parent body exposure was higher by a factor of 2–3 compared to the lunar regolith exposure. In this case, the estimated heliocentric distance is within the asteroid belt region. The parent body exposure age is longer than 19.1 Ma. This result indicates frequent impact events on the parent body like that recorded for other solar‐gas‐rich meteorites. Assuming single‐stage exposure after an ejection event from the parent body, the space exposure age is 11.0 ± 1.1 Ma, which is close to the peak of ~10 Ma in the exposure age distribution for the solar‐gas‐free R chondrites.