Understanding the past to interpret the future: comparison of simulated groundwater recharge in the upper Colorado River basin (USA) using observed and general-circulation-model historical climate data

In evaluating potential impacts of climate change on water resources, water managers seek to understand how future conditions may differ from the recent past. Studies of climate impacts on groundwater recharge often compare simulated recharge from future and historical time periods on an average monthly or overall average annual basis, or compare average recharge from future decades to that from a single recent decade. Baseline historical recharge estimates, which are compared with future conditions, are often from simulations using observed historical climate data. Comparison of average monthly results, average annual results, or even averaging over selected historical decades, may mask the true variability in historical results and lead to misinterpretation of future conditions. Comparison of future recharge results simulated using general circulation model (GCM) climate data to recharge results simulated using actual historical climate data may also result in an incomplete understanding of the likelihood of future changes. In this study, groundwater recharge is estimated in the upper Colorado River basin, USA, using a distributed-parameter soil-water balance groundwater recharge model for the period 1951–2010. Recharge simulations are performed using precipitation, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature data from observed climate data and from 97 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, phase 5) projections. Results indicate that average monthly and average annual simulated recharge are similar using observed and GCM climate data. However, 10-year moving-average recharge results show substantial differences between observed and simulated climate data, particularly during period 1970–2000, with much greater variability seen for results using observed climate data.     

Analysis of the magnetometric vibration method

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Evaluation of meteorological controls of reconstructed rockfall activity in the Czech Flysch Carpathians

Rockfall is an important process in the final sculpturing of escarpments and scree slopes that originate in bedrock landslides in the Flysch Carpathians. The spatio‐temporal characteristics of rockfall activity were studied at four localities representative of old landslides in the highest part of the Czech Flysch Carpathians (Moravskoslezské Beskydy Mountains). Historical activity, chronology, and spatial context of rockfall activity were reconstructed using dendrogeomorphic techniques and rockfall rate index (RR). A total of 1132 increment cores from 283 trees growing in the rockfall transport and accumulation zones enabled the dating of 989 rockfall events. Reconstruction of a 78‐year‐long RR chronology suggests similar rockfall histories and trends at all study sites, indicating the existence of major common factors driving rockfall dynamics in the region. Temporal analysis and correlation of the RR series obtained with monthly mean temperatures, numbers of days with temperature transitions through 0 °C and monthly precipitation totals show that meteorological characteristics have evident but variable influence on rockfall activity. The most important factor is the effect of freeze–thaw cycles throughout the year, supplemented by low temperatures, especially during autumn. The influence of precipitation totals is of lesser importance. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Health profiles of Hamilton: Spatial characterisation of neighbourhoods for health investigations

This paper is part of a larger research program which employs a mixed-methods approach to study the determinants of health at the local level using specific neighborhoods in Hamilton, Ontario, Canada. In this paper, multivariate, spatial statistical techniques and geographic information systems are used to address questions about the characterization of neighbourhoods, based on socioeconomic determinants of health and risk factors such as smoking. While neighbourhood characterization has been a component of public health surveillance for some time, geostatistical techniques can now be used to derive more accurate representation of neighbourhoods for use in subsequent analysis. We utilize principal components analysis to reduce the data and extract the components that represent the underlying local processes. Principal components are also overlayed on comparative mortality figures to visualize where the socio-demographic determinants of health correspond spatially with mortality patterns. Predicted values from the components are then analysed for spatial clustering using local indicators of spatial association. The findings reveal a pattern of distinct neighbourhoods that will be used in subsequent quantitative and qualitative stages in the larger research programme. The results can also be used to inform public health policy and to target public health interventions.     

Channel incision by headcut migration: Reconnection of the Colorado River to its estuary and the Gulf of California during the floods of 1979–1988

The macrotidal Colorado River Delta at the northern end of the Gulf of California in Mexico is hydrologically complex. We review historical accounts, data, field notes and photographs to evaluate the hydrological processes active on the delta prior to the advent of upstream dams. We also employ satellite imagery as well as recent LIDAR data to illustrate the critical role played by headcut erosion in restoring the river's fluvial/tidewater connection during the 1979–1988 floods. Prior to human manipulation, the river's contribution of fresh water to the Gulf was periodically interrupted by natural overflowing, avulsing, and flooding into the sub-sea level Salton Sink on the north slope of the delta plain. River flow south towards the Gulf was also subject to occasional overflow into Laguna Salada, another sub-sea level basin. In the mid-20th century, the Delta was disconnected from its fluvial supply following installation of upstream dams and reservoirs. A tidal sediment obstruction developed in the estuary channel, forming a final barrier to fluvial connectivity. Release of Colorado River floodwaters into Mexico between 1979 and 1988 provided a natural experiment on the hydrological response of a long-disconnected macrotidal delta to restoration of fluvial supply.     

Applying a science-forward approach to groundwater regulatory design

Hydrogeology Journal - Groundwater sustainability is challenged by the difference between legal and scientific understanding of groundwater, as well as the lack of focused attention to regulatory...     

Planning for resettlement: building partnerships for,by, and with Indigenous peoples

Efforts in the United States to plan or implement relocation in response to climate risks have struggled to improve material conditions for participants, to incorporate local knowledge, and to keep communities intact. Mixed methodologies of community geography provide an opportunity for dialogue and knowledge-sharing to collaboratively diagnose the challenges of climate adaptation led by communities. In this article, we advance a participatory practice model for the co-creation of knowledge initiated during a two-day workshop with members from the Biloxi-Chitimacha-Choctaw Tribe from Isle de Jean Charles in Louisiana, Yup’ik people from Newtok Village in Alaska, and researchers from the MIT Resilient Communities Lab. Building on prior scholarship of indigenizing climate change research, this article shares the experience of the workshop to support knowledge exchange and dialogue, with the goal of understanding how to build participatory and non-extractive community-academic partnerships. We reflect on the community values and principles used to guide this workshop to inform more inclusive and co-produced research partnerships, and pedagogies that can improve and assist the self-determination of groups impacted by climate change. Workshop presentations and discussions highlight interconnected themes of resources, systems & structures, regulatory imbalance, and resilience that underpin climate resettlement. We reflect on the narratives presented by members of both Indigenous tribes and NGO partners that illustrate the shortcomings of resettlement planning practices past and present as perpetuating existing inequality. In response to this structured knowledge exchange, we identify potential roles for community-academic partnerships that aim to improve the equity of existing resettlement models. We propose approaches for incorporating traditional knowledge into the pedagogy, discourse, and practice of academic planning programs.

     

Characterizing hydraulic conductivity with the direct-push permeameter

The direct-push permeameter (DPP) is a promising approach for obtaining high-resolution information about vertical variations in hydraulic conductivity (K) in shallow unconsolidated settings. This small-diameter tool, which consists of a short screened section with a pair of transducers inset in the tool near the screen, is pushed into the subsurface to a depth at which a K estimate is desired. A short hydraulic test is then performed by injecting water through the screen at a constant rate (less than 4 L/min) while pressure changes are monitored at the transducer locations. Hydraulic conductivity is calculated using the injection rate and the pressure changes in simple expressions based on Darcy's Law. In units of moderate or higher hydraulic conductivity (more than 1 m/d), testing at a single level can be completed within 10 to 15 min. Two major advantages of the method are its speed and the insensitivity of the K estimates to the zone of compaction created by tool advancement. The potential of the approach has been assessed at two extensively studied sites in the United States and Germany over a K range commonly faced in practical field investigations (0.02 to 500 m/d). The results of this assessment demonstrate that the DPP can provide high-resolution K estimates that are in good agreement with estimates obtained through other means.