Climate change and the long-term viability of the World’s busiest heavy haul ice road

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Climate models project that the northern high latitudes will warm at a rate in excess of the global mean. This will pose severe problems for Arctic and...     

气候系统预测:基础创新和集成应用

随着全球变暖,极端天气气候事件增强,天气气候灾害造成的损失也愈发严重。当前气候预测的准确性远远不能满足社会需要,气候系统预测理论和方法面临着众多挑战性问题。为提档气候预测科学水平和准确率,由南京信息工程大学和中山大学承担的“气候系统预测研究中心”获得国家自然科学基金基础科学中心项目支持(2021年1月—2025年12月)。在该项目执行的前三年,项目团队开展了大量深入系统的研究,并取得了若干重要进展:1)揭示了气候系统的若干关键变化、驱动力和机制;2)剖析了海-陆-冰-气相互作用对我国重大极端气候事件的影响;3)在气候系统数值模式研发和预测系统集成方面取得重要进展;4)发展了延伸期-S2S-年代际的气候系统预测理论和方法。本文对这些进展作了扼要介绍,并针对气候与环境变化归因、古今气候环境研究融合、跨时空气候系统变异和极端气候、人工智能与气候科学、年代际预测和风险应对体系等关键科学问题做了展望。     

The 2002 reform of the Common Fisheries Policy's system of governance—rhetoric or reality?

The 2002 Reform of the Common Fisheries Policy (CFP) was claimed to be a radical overhaul of a failing system. Several EU fish stocks—particularly North Sea cod—had reached dangerously low levels, and there was widespread dissatisfaction with the way in which the CFP was operating. The European Commission took the opportunity of the legal requirement to review some features of the CFP (principally access provisions) in 2002, to undertake a broader reappraisal of the CFP. One of the features of this reappraisal was an attempt to improve the CFP's system of governance by increasing the amount of stakeholder participation, decentralisation, transparency, accountability, effectiveness and coherence. In this paper, the conclusion is reached that this attempt to improve the quality of governance in the 2002 CFP reform package has been more rhetorical than real.     

Closed Basin Brine Evolution and the Influence of Ca–Cl Inflow Waters: Death Valley and Bristol Dry Lake California, Qaidam Basin, China, and Salar de Atacama, Chile

Diagenetic-hydrothermal brines, here called “hydrothermal Ca–Cl brines,” have compositions that reflect interactions between groundwaters and rocks or sediments at elevated temperatures. Hydrothermal Ca–Cl brines reach the surface by convection-driven or topographically driven circulation, and discharge as springs or seeps along fault zones to become important inflow waters in many tectonically active closed basins. Case studies from (1) Qaidam Basin, China, (2) Death Valley, California, (3) Salar de Atacama, Chile, and (4) Bristol Dry Lake, California illustrate that hydrothermal Ca–Cl inflow waters have influenced brine evolution in terms of major ion chemistries and mineral precipitation sequences. All four basins are tectonically active; three (Death Valley, Salar de Atacama, and Qaidam Basin) have well-documented Ca–Cl spring inflow and Holocene faulting. Bristol Dry Lake has young volcanic deposits and Salar de Atacama has an active stratovolcano on its eastern margin, indicating subsurface magma bodies. A midcrustal magma chamber has been identified in southern Death Valley. Volcanism and faulting in these closed basins provides the heat source for hydrothermal-diagenetic processes and the energy and pathways to deliver these waters to the surface.     

Natural recovery from accelerated forest ditch and stream bank erosion five years after harvesting of plantation forest on Plynlimon,mid‐Wales

Erosion rates surveyed using 230 erosion pins on 24 occasions over eight years (1994–2001) on forested stream banks, tributaries and forest ditches in the 0·89 km² Nant Tanllwyth catchment, part of the Hafren Forest on Plynlimon, mid‐Wales, showed statistically significant increases of up to 40 mm a^?1 in mean erosion rates during the two‐year period in which environmentally sensitive plot‐scale timber harvesting operations took place (1996–97). In the four years following timber harvesting mean erosion rates at all sites recovered to levels that were lower than before the harvesting operations began. This is attributed to increased light levels, following canopy removal, allowing vegetation to colonize exposed banks. There was a statistically significant relationship (p < 0·05) between mean erosion rate in 2000–01 (four years after harvesting) and percentage vegetation cover at erosion monitoring sites in the clearfelled (south tributaries) area though the same relationship did not hold for sites on the mainstream banks or for sites on the north (mature forest) ditch sites. The implications of natural vegetation colonization for management of such streams are discussed. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simultaneous identification of parameter,initial condition,and boundary condition in groundwater modelling

In this paper, we perform an inverse method to simultaneously estimate aquifer parameters, initial condition, and boundary conditions in groundwater modelling. The parameter estimation is extended to a complete inverse problem that makes the calibrated groundwater flow model more realistic. The adjoint state method, the gradient search method, and the least square error algorithm are combined to build the optimization procedure. Horizontal two‐dimensional groundwater flow in a confined aquifer is exemplified to demonstrate the correlation between unknowns, the contribution of observation, as well as the suitability of applying the inverse method. The correlation analysis shows the connection between storage coefficient and initial condition. Besides, transmissivity and boundary conditions are also highly correlated. More observations at different location and time are necessary to provide sufficient information. A time series of unsteady head is requested for estimation of storage coefficient and initial condition. Observation near boundary is very effective for boundary condition estimation. The observation at pumping well mostly contributes to the estimation of transmissivity. According to all observations, it is possible to identify parameters, initial condition, and boundary condition simultaneously. Furthermore, the results not only illustrate the traditional assumption of known boundary condition but also initial condition, which may cause an incorrect estimation. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectropolarimetric observations of WR 137

We present high signal-to-noise spectropolarimetry of the WC7+OB star WR 137 (HD 192641) covering the spectral range from 3600Å to 1.1µm. The polarization spectrum shows unambiguous evidence for an intrinsic polarization vector.