A copula-based multivariate analysis of Canadian RCM projected changes to flood characteristics for northeastern Canada

In the present work, climate change impacts on three spring (March–June) flood characteristics, i.e. peak, volume and duration, for 21 northeast Canadian basins are evaluated, based on Canadian regional climate model (CRCM) simulations. Conventional univariate frequency analysis for each flood characteristic and copula based bivariate frequency analysis for mutually correlated pairs of flood characteristics (i.e. peak–volume, peak–duration and volume–duration) are carried out. While univariate analysis is focused on return levels of selected return periods (5-, 20- and 50-year), the bivariate analysis is focused on the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2 of the three pairs of flood characteristics, where P1 is the probability of any one characteristic in a pair exceeding its threshold and P2 is the probability of both characteristics in a pair exceeding their respective thresholds at the same time. The performance of CRCM is assessed by comparing ERA40 (the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts 40-year reanalysis) driven CRCM simulated flood statistics and univariate and bivariate frequency analysis results for the current 1970–1999 period with those observed at selected 16 gauging stations for the same time period. The Generalized Extreme Value distribution is selected as the marginal distribution for flood characteristics and the Clayton copula for developing bivariate distribution functions. The CRCM performs well in simulating mean, standard deviation, and 5-, 20- and 50-year return levels of flood characteristics. The joint occurrence probabilities are also simulated well by the CRCM. A five-member ensemble of the CRCM simulated streamflow for the current (1970–1999) and future (2041–2070) periods, driven by five different members of a Canadian Global Climate Model ensemble, are used in the assessment of projected changes, where future simulations correspond to A2 scenario. The results of projected changes, in general, indicate increases in the marginal values, i.e. return levels of flood characteristics, and the joint occurrence probabilities P1 and P2. It is found that the future marginal values of flood characteristics and P1 and P2 values corresponding to longer return periods will be affected more by anthropogenic climate change than those corresponding to shorter return periods but the former ones are subjected to higher uncertainties.     

Wind energy estimates by use of a diagnostic model

A diagnostic model is a relatively simple and practical tool for modeling the wind flow of the boundary layer in complex terrain. The model begins with a wind analysis based on available surface wind reports and geostrophic winds (computed from pressure data). The height of the boundary layer top (upper surface of the computational domain) is prescribed to fit local conditions. Using the continuity equation in terrain-following coordinates, the winds at mesh points are adjusted to produce nondivergence while maintaining the original vertical component of vorticity. The method of computing the nondivergent winds uses direct alterations. This method may be useful for other modeling purposes and will be described. Data for a long period (usually a year) are analyzed to obtain eigenvectors and the associated time series of their coefficients at each observation time. The model is run only for the five or six eigenvectors that explain most of the variance. The wind field at any particular time is reconstructed from the eigenvector solutions and their appropriate coefficients. Comparisons of model results with measured winds at sites representing different types of terrain will be shown. The accuracy and economy of the model make it a useful tool for estimating wind energy and also for giving wind fields for low-level diffusion models.     

Effects of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on World Agriculture, Food Consumption, and Economic Welfare

Because of many uncertainties, quantitative estimates of agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions are often given low confidence. A major source of uncertainty is our inability to accurately project future changes in economic activity, emissions, and climate. This paper focuses on two issues. First, to what extent do variable projections of climate generate uncertainty in agriculturally related economic impacts? Second, to what extent do agriculturally related economic impacts of greenhouse gas emissions depend on economic conditions at the time of impacts? Results indicate that uncertainty due to variable projections of climate is fairly large for most of the economic effects evaluated in this analysis. Results also indicate that economic conditions at the time of impact influence the direction and size of as well as the confidence in the economic effects of identical projections of greenhouse gas impacts. The economic variable that behaves most consistently in this analysis is world crop production. Increases in mean global temperature, for example, cause world crop production to decrease on average under both 1990 and improved economic conditions and in both instances the confidence with respect to variable projections of climate is medium (e.g.,67%) or greater. In addition and as expected, CO₂ fertilization causesworld crop production to increase on average under 1990 and improved economic conditions. These results suggest that crop production may be a fairly robust indicator of the potential impacts of greenhouse gas emissions.A somewhat unexpected finding is that improved economic conditions are not necessarily a panacea to potential greenhouse-gas-induced damages, particularly at the region level. In fact, in some regions, impacts of climate change or CO₂ fertilization that are beneficial undercurrent economic conditions may be detrimental under improved economic conditions (relative to the new economic base). Australia plus New Zealand suffer from this effect in this analysis because under improved economic conditions they are assumed to obtain a relatively large share of income from agricultural exports. When the climate-change and CO₂-fertilization scenariosin this analysis are also included, agricultural exports from Australia plus New Zealand decline on average. The resultant declines in agricultural income in Australia plus New Zealand are too large to be completely offset by rising incomes in other sectors. This indicates that regions that rely on agricultural exports for relatively large shares of their income may be vulnerable not only to direct climate-induced agricultural damages, but also to positive impacts induced by greenhouse gas emissions elsewhere.     

Cloud — Aerosol interaction during lightning activity over land and ocean: Precipitation pattern assessment

The present study attempts to identify the land - ocean contrast in cloud - aerosol relation during lightning and non-lightning days and its effect on subsequent precipitation pattern. The thermal hypothesis in view of Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) behind the land - ocean contrast is observed to be insignificant in the present study region. The result shows that the lightning activities are significantly and positively correlated with aerosols over both land and ocean in case of low aerosol loading whereas for high aerosol loading the correlation is significant but, only over land. The study attempts to comprehend the mechanism through which the aerosol and lightning interact using the concept of aerosol indirect effect that includes the study of cloud effective radius, cloud fraction and precipitation rate. The result shows that the increase in lightning activity over ocean might have been caused due to the first aerosol indirect effect, while over land the aerosol indirect effect might have been suppressed due to lightning. Thus, depending on the region and relation between cloud parameters it is observed that the precipitation rate decreases (increases) over ocean during lightning (non-lightning) days. On the other hand during non-lightning days, the precipitation rate decreases over land.     

Driving forces of tropical deforestation: The role of remote sensing and spatial models

Remote sensing technologies are increasingly used to monitor landscape change in many parts of the world. While the availability of extensive and timely imagery from various satellite sensors can aid in identifying the rates and patterns of deforestation, modelling techniques can evaluate the socioeconomic and biophysical forces driving deforestation processes. This paper briefly reviews some emerging spatial methodologies aimed at identifying driving forces of land use change and applies one such methodology to understand deforestation in Mexico. Satellite image classification, change analysis and econometric modelling are used to identify the rates, hotspots and drivers of deforestation in a case study of the southern Yucatán peninsular region, an enumerated global hotspot of biodiversity and tropical deforestation. In particular, the relative roles of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in driving regional deforestation rates are evaluated. Such methodological approaches can be applied to other regions of the forested tropics and contribute insights to conservation planning and policy.     

Magnetic remanence acquisition in Finnish lake sediments

Summary. Magnetic studies have been carried out on organic sediments from five Finnish lakes to determine the carrier(s) of the stable NRM and to find how the remanence is acquired. Single or pseudo-single domain 'magnetite' is thought to carry the NRM. It was found that drying and cooling sediment samples resulted in a loss of NRM which was attributed to the misalignment of small magnetic particles. Low-field experiments were carried out on sediment samples in different physical states and from the results of these investigations it was concluded that post-depositional processes are important in the acquisition of an NRM. Stabilization of magnetic grains is thought to be due to the growth of gels in the organic sediment rather than to dewatering.     

Apparent polar wander of the mean-lithosphere reference frame

Apparent polar wander in the mean-lithosphere (= no-net-rotation = no-net-torque uniform drag) reference frame is compared with apparent polar wander in the hotspot reference frame over the past 100 Myr. Palaeo-magnetic poles and plate rotations previously used to determine an apparent polar wander path for the hotspot reference frame are here used to determine an apparent polar wander path in the mean-lithosphere reference frame. We find that the two paths are similar, especially for Late Cretaceous time, when a 10°–20° shift of the pole occurred. To first-order the hotspots and lithosphere (as a whole) moved in unison relative to the palaeomagnetic axis during Late Cretaceous time. A non-dipole field explanation for the apparent shift can probably be excluded. However, either motion of the time-averaged geomagnetic axis relative to the spin axis or polar wandering could have caused this shift, the latter being the more likely explanation.     

Understanding confluence dynamics in the alluvial Ganga–Ramganga valley, India: An integrated approach using geomorphology and hydrology

Confluence dynamics in the Ganga–Ramganga valley in the western Ganga plains of India has been studied through systematic mapping of channel configuration using multi-date remote sensing images and topographic sheets for a period spanning nearly 100 years (1911–2000). The study has been supplemented with a detailed analysis of the channel morphology, hydrology and sediment transport characteristics of the different rivers. Our study indicates that new confluences have been created during this period and that the confluence points have moved both upstream and downstream on a historical time scale. Apart from major avulsions, other processes that have controlled the confluence movements include river capture, cut-offs and aggradation in the confluence area. River capture occurs through lateral bank erosion and migration, encroachment by the master stream and beheading of smaller rivers resulting in upstream movement of the confluence point. Another process which influences the upstream migration of the confluence is an increase in sinuosity of one of the channels near the confluence and then a cut-off. Aggradation in the confluence area and local avulsions of the primary channel in a multi-channel system seem to be the major process controlling the downstream movement of the confluence point. Analysis of channel morphology, hydrology and sediment budget for the study period supports our interpretations.     

Deep‐water dunes on drowned isolated carbonate terraces (Mozambique Channel,south‐west Indian Ocean)

Subaqueous sand dunes are common bedforms on continental shelves dominated by tidal and geostrophic currents. However, much less is known about sand dunes in deep‐marine settings that are affected by strong bottom currents. In this study, dune fields were identified on drowned isolated carbonate platforms in the Mozambique Channel (south‐west Indian Ocean). The acquired data include multibeam bathymetry, multi‐channel high‐resolution seismic reflection data, sea floor imagery, a sediment sample and current measurements from a moored current meter and hull‐mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler. The dunes are located at water depths ranging from 200 to 600 m on the slope terraces of a modern atoll (Bassas da India Atoll) and within small depressions formed during tectonic deformation of drowned carbonate platforms (Sakalaves Seamount and Jaguar Bank). Dunes are composed of bioclastic medium size sand, and are large to very large, with wavelengths of 40 to 350 m and heights of 0·9 to 9·0 m. Dune migration seems to be unidirectional in each dune field, suggesting a continuous import and export of bioclastic sand, with little sand being recycled. Oceanic currents are very intense in the Mozambique Channel and may be able to erode submerged carbonates, generating carbonate sand at great depths. A mooring located at 463 m water depth on the Hall Bank (30 km west of the Jaguar Bank) showed vigorous bottom currents, with mean speeds of 14 cm sec^?1 and maximum speeds of 57 cm sec^?1, compatible with sand dune formation. The intensity of currents is highly variable and is related to tidal processes (high‐frequency variability) and to anticyclonic eddies near the seamounts (low‐frequency variability). This study contributes to a better understanding of the formation of dunes in deep‐marine settings and provides valuable information about carbonate preservation after drowning, and the impact of bottom currents on sediment distribution and sea floor morphology.     

Diverse mode of phosphatic rocks in the environs of Proterozoic Bijawar and Sonrai basins and its relevance to uranium mineralisation — A case study from central India

The Bundelkhand massif comprising a variety of Archean-Paleoproterozoic granitoids along with low grade and high-grade metamorphites and located in the centre of the Indian Plate, underwent extension during Paleoproterozoic period, resulting in the formation of homotaxial intracratonic Bijawar and Sonrai basins in the south and Gwalior basin in the northern margin. The Bijawar and Sonrai basins are typified by their characteristic sediments and basic volcanic rocks. A feature common to both the basins, is the overwhelming occurrence of phosphatic rocks across stratigraphy and lithotype in the Bijawar basin and its confinement to the basal part of the sedimentary column in Sonrai basin. Most of these rocks are primarily of marine origin, and later subjected to periods of repeated phosphatic redistribution. Multiple episodes of such phosphatisation culminates in the proliferation and enrichment of phosphate in the upper Bijawar rocks of Bijawar basin (phosphatic breccia of Hirapur-Mardeora) and lower Bijawar rocks of Sonrai basin (phosphatic breccia of Lalitpur). Apart from these established phosphatic rocks in both the basins, quartz reefs occurring in the basement as well as the lower Bijawar Malhera Chert Breccia Formation in Bijawar basin at places are endowed with anomalously high phosphate content. The phosphatic component in all the lithotypes is in the form of apatite varying in form from microcrystalline to well formed coarser crystal aggregate comprising cement, veins and botroidal encrustations. Irrespective of its spatial, temporal and paragenetic position, it invariably registers weak to moderate radioactivity, due to the presence of uranium within it, as is evident from microprobe data. Although intra-grain and inter-grain distribution of uranium is found to be random and erratic, in general, it is observed that uranium tends to be enriched in the later generation phosphates, due to secondary process of dissolution and reprecipitation. The present paper, with fresh inputs from petrological, geochemical, minerochemical and isotope data pertaining to apatite from all these diverse units, not only explores the already established association of uranium and phosphate in these basins but also provides new insight to the phosphatic quartz reef within the basement and the phosphatised arenaceous sediments of the lower Bijawar Formation.