Groundwater head uncertainty analysis in unsteady-state water flow models using the interval and perturbation methods

In the numerical simulation of groundwater flow, uncertainties often affect the precision of the simulation results. Stochastic and statistical approaches such as the Monte Carlo method, the Neumann expansion method and the Taylor series expansion, are commonly employed to estimate uncertainty in the final output. Based on the first-order interval perturbation method, a combination of the interval and perturbation methods is proposed as a viable alternative and compared to the well-known equal interval continuous sampling method (EICSM). The approach was realized using the GFModel (an unsaturated-saturated groundwater flow simulation model) program. This study exemplifies scenarios of three distinct interval parameters, namely, the hydraulic conductivities of six equal parts of the aquifer, their boundary head conditions, and several hydrogeological parameters (e.g. specific storativity and extraction rate of wells). The results show that the relative errors of deviation of the groundwater head extremums (RDGE) in the late stage of simulation are controlled within approximately ±5% when the changing rate of the hydrogeological parameter is no more than 0.2. From the viewpoint of the groundwater head extremums, the relative errors can be controlled within ±1.5%. The relative errors of the groundwater head variation are within approximately ±5% when the changing rate is no more than 0.2. The proposed method of this study is applicable to unsteady-state confined water flow systems.

     

地质雷达属性分析在浙江良渚莫角山红烧土层探测中的应用

应用地质雷达划分地层的主要依据是地层介质的电性差异,介质间的电性差异越大,地层界面越容易分辨。但在实际雷达探测中,某些介质虽然具有不同的电性参数,但会产生相同或相似的异常信号,这为地层划分工作带来困难。根据钻孔土芯测量出不同地层的电性参数,获取地质雷达探测的前提条件,对良渚遗址群莫角山红烧土遗址进行雷达数据采集,经预处理后分别进行常规数据处理和纹理属性提取分析,对比发现属性分析在地层划分上比常规处理方法更有优势。     

The generation kinetics of natural gases in the Kela-2 gas field from the Kuqa Depression, Tarim Basin, northwestern China

The Kela-2 gas field, found in the Kuqa Depression of the Tarim Basin, northwestern China, is a large-sized dry gas field (C1 /C1-5 =0.992 0.999) and characterized by ultra-high pressure (pressure factor up to 2.0 2.2). The pyrolysis experiment was carried out under isothermal gold-tube closed system, with samples collected from the Jurassic coal, Jurassic mudstone and Triassic mudstone in the Kuqa Depression. The result of gas yield showed that the Middle and Lower Jurassic source rocks have higher gas generation potential than the Triassic source rocks. The kinetic modeling of gas generation and methane carbon isotope fractionation suggested that the Kela-2 gases belong to the products of high-over mature stages and were mainly derived from the Middle and Lower Jurassic coal-bearing strata. The Triassic source rocks made a minor contribution to the Kela-2 gases. The Kela-2 gases chiefly generated from coal-bearing source rocks with R o values from 1.3% to 2.5%, and thus primarily accumulated after 5 Ma.     

Environmental and tectonic significance of Late Permian reefs in the Linxi and adjacent areas in Inner Mongolia of China

Many plateau-edge reefs and reef mounds of the Late Permian have been discovered in Linxi County and adjacent areas of Inner Mongolia, China. These reefs verify that the Hinggan-Inner Mongolia Area was an open and unobstructed sea-trough in Late Permian. Facies and sequences of reef strata in Member 4 and Member 5 of the Linxi Formation were studied for information to reconstruct the closing process of the Linxi-Jiutai chasm in the sea-trough, i.e., to constrain subsidence, uplift, and final closing. Ages of the reef-bearing strata have been determined to be late and end of Late Permian, based on ranges or abundances of diverse fossils. Six reef-building organic assemblages were distinguished, representing different ecologic conditions, according to morphological functions and paleoecological adaptations of organisms including primarily sponges, bryozoans, and calcareous algae. Two types of shelf slopes, the gentle slope and the steep slope, have been interpreted for Member 4 and Member 5 of the Linxi Formation, based on the assemblages. The locations of outcrops, and types of these reefs delineate the north margin of Sino-Korea Platform, and define uplift and final closing of the Linxi–Jiutai chasm at the end of Late Permian.     

Seasonal variations of stable isotope in precipitation and moisture transport at Yushu,eastern Tibetan Plateau

Precipitation δ 18O at Yushu, eastern Tibetan Plateau, shows strong fluctuation and lack of clear seasonality. The seasonal pattern of precipitation stable isotope at Yushu is apparently different from either that of the southwest monsoon region to the south or that of the inland region to the north. This different seasonal pattern probably reflects the shift of different moisture sources. In this paper, we present the spatial comparison of the seasonal patterns of precipitation δ 18O, and calculate the moisture transport flux by using the NCAR/NCEP reanalysis data. This allows us to discuss the relation between moisture transport flux and precipitation δ 18O. This study shows that both the southwest monsoon from south and inland air mass transport from north affected the seasonal precipitation δ 18O at Yushu, eastern Tibetan Plateau. Southwest monsoon brings the main part of the moisture, but southwest transport flux is weaker than in the southern part of the Tibetan Plateau. However, contribution of the inland moisture from north or local evaporation moisture is enhanced. The combined effect is the strong fluctuation of summer precipitation δ 18O at Yushu and comparatively poor seasonality.     

The role of anthropogenic activities in karst spring discharge volatility

The traditional hydrological time series methods tend to focus on the mean of whichever variable is analysed but neglect its time‐varying variance (i.e. assuming the variance remains constant). The variances of hydrological time series vary with time under anthropogenic influence. There is evidence that extensive well drilling and groundwater pumping can intercept groundwater run‐off and consequently induce spring discharge volatility or variance varying with time (i.e. heteroskedasticity). To investigate the time‐varying variance or heteroskedasticity of spring discharge, this paper presents a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average with general autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (SARIMA‐GARCH) model, whose the SARIMA model is used to estimate the mean of hydrological time series, and the GARCH model estimates its time‐varying variance. The SARIMA‐GARCH model was then applied to the Xin'an Springs Basin, China, where extensive groundwater development has occurred since 1978 (e.g. the average annual groundwater pumping rates were less than 0.20 m³/s in the 1970s, reached 1.20 m³/s at the end of the 1980s, surpassed 2.0 m³/s in the 1990s and exceeded 3.0 m³/s by 2007). To identify whether human activities or natural stressors caused the heteroskedasticity of Xin'an Springs discharge, we segmented the spring discharge sequence into two periods: a predevelopment stage (i.e. 1956–1977) and a developed stage (i.e. 1978–2012), and set up the SARIMA‐GARCH model for the two stages, respectively. By comparing the models, we detected the role of human activities in spring discharge volatility. The results showed that human activities caused the heteroskedasticity of the Xin'an Spring discharge. The predicted Xin'an Springs discharge by the SARIMA‐GARCH model showed that the mean monthly spring discharge is predicted to continue to decline to 0.93 m³/s in 2013, 0.67 m³/s in 2014 and 0.73 m³/s in 2015. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of an optical nitrate profiler to high- and low-turbidity coastal shelf waters

Here, we report the results of high-resolution nitrate measurements using an optical nitrate profiler(in situ ultraviolet spectrophotometer, ISUS) along transect across a high-turbidity shelf(East China Sea) and a lowturbidity shelf(Chukchi Sea). The ISUS-measured nitrate concentrations closely reproduced the results measured by conventional bottle methods in low-turbidity waters. However, for high-turbidity waters of the East China Sea(salinity<30), a correction factor of 1.19 was required t...     

Mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradation

The mass-front velocities of granular flows results from the joint action of particle size gradations and the underlying surfaces.However,because of the complexity of friction during flow movement,details such as the slope-toe impedance effects and momentum-transfer mechanisms have not been completely explained by theoretical analyses,numerical simulations,or field investigations.To study the mass-front velocity of dry granular flows influenced by the angle of the slope to the runout plane and particle size gradations we conducted model experiments that recorded the motion of rapid and long-runout rockslides or avalanches.Flume tests were conducted using slope angles of 25°,35°,45°,and 55° and three particle size gradations.The resulting mass-front motions consisted of three stages:acceleration,velocity maintenance,and deceleration.The existing methods of velocity prediction could not explain the slowing effect of the slope toe or the momentum-transfer steady velocity stage.When the slope angle increased from 25° to 55°,the mass-front velocities dropped significantly to between 44.4% and59.6% of the peak velocities and energy lossesincreased from 69.1% to 83.7% of the initial,respectively.The velocity maintenance stages occurred after the slope-toe and mass-front velocity fluctuations.During this stage,travel distances increased as the angles increased,but the average velocity was greatest at 45°.At a slope angle of 45°,as the median particle size increased,energy loss around the slope toe decreased,the efficiency of momentum transfer increased,and the distance of the velocity maintenance stage increased.We presented an improved average velocity formula for granular flow and a geometrical model of the energy along the flow line.     

单层工业厂房-TMD减震控制系统研究

提出了采用质量调谐减震控制技术对厂房结构进行减震控制的方法。利用屋盖系统作为附加质量,屋盖支座采用夹层橡胶隔震垫,建立了厂房-TMD系统模型,并用非线性时程分析法对其进行了多种地震动激励下的计算分析,探讨了厂房-TMD减震体系减震效果的参数影响及减震机理。结果表明,采用质量调谐减震技术对单层工业厂房进行减震是一种有效的方法。