1984年元月6日旦马(M=5.5)级地震前重力固体潮的异常形态

重力预报地震的数据虽有多种,但它们的物理实质是一样的。因此,我们日常工作中只使用日均值和潮汐因子δ值。日均值能反映震前地壳的快速蠕滑过程,δ值反映了震前趋势的变化。我们将日均值作为短临预报指标,将δ值作为中长期预报指标。     

The structural characteristics,age of origin,and tectonic attribute of the Erguna Fault,NE China

The Erguna Fault runs along the east bank of the Erguna River in NE China and is a large-scale ductile shear zone comprising granitic mylonites. This paper reports on the geometry, kinematic indicators, and 40Ar/39 Ar biotite ages of the granitic mylonites, to constrain the structural characteristics, forming age, and tectonic attribute of the Erguna ductile shear zone. The zone strikes NE and records a top-to-the-NW sense of shear. A mylonitic foliation and stretching lineation are well developed in the mylonites, which are classified as S-L tectonites. Logarithmic flinn parameters(1.18–2.35) indicate elongate strain which approximates to plane strain. Kinematic vorticity numbers are 0.42–0.92 and 0.48–0.94, based on the polar Mohr diagram and the oblique foliation in quartz ribbons, respectively, suggesting that the ductile shear zone formed under general shear, or a combination of simple and pure shear. According to finite strain and kinematic vorticity analyses, the Erguna Fault is a lengthening-thinning ductile shear zone that formed by extension. The deformation behavior of minerals in the mylonites indicates that the fault was the site of three stages of deformation: an initial stage of middle- to deep-level, high-temperature shear, a post-stress recovery phase of high-temperature static recrystallization, and a final phase of low-temperature uplift and cooling. The 40Ar/39 Ar plateau ages of biotite from the granitic mylonites are 106.16 ± 0.79 and 111.55 ± 0.67 Ma, which constrain the timing of low-temperature uplift and cooling but are younger than the ages of metamorphic core complexes(MCCs) in the Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia region. Using measured geological sections, microtectonics, estimates of finite strain and kinematic vorticity, and regional correlations and geochronology, we conclude that the Erguna Fault is an Early Cretaceous, NNE-trending, large-scale, sub-horizontal, and extensional ductile shear zone. It shares a similar tectonic background with the MCCs, volcanic fault basins, and large and super-large volcanic-hydrothermal deposits in Transbaikalia-northeast Mongolia and the western Great Khingan Mountains, all of which are the result of overthickened crust that gravitationally collapsed and extended in the Early Cretaceous after plate collision along the present-day Sino-Russia-Mongolia border tract.     

Seismites in the Dasheng Group: New evidence of strong tectonic and earthquake activities of the Tanlu Fault Zone

More than 80 layers of seismites were recognized from the Early Cretaceous Dasheng Group in the Mazhan and Tancheng graben basins in the Tanlu Fault Zone, eastern China. The responsible seismic events took place about 110–100 Ma in the Early Cretaceous. The fault zone was affected at the time by strong tectonics, due to tension-related stretching and scattered squeezing by strike-slip faults. These tectonic activities induced a series of strong earthquakes with Richter magnitudes(M) of 5–8.5. The earthquakes affected saturated or semi-consolidated flood and lake sediments, and produced intra-layer deformations by several processes, including liquefaction, thixotropy, drop, faulting, cracking, filling and folding, which resulted in the formation of various soft-sediment deformation structures, such as dikes and veins of liquefied sand, liquefied breccias, liquefied homogeneous layers, load structures, flame structures, ball-and-pillow structures, boudinage, diapirs, fissure infillings, a giant conglomerate wedge, and syn-sedimentary faults. The seismites are new evidence of tectonic and seismic activities in the Tanlu Fault Zone during the Early Cretaceous; the series of strong seismic events that can be deduced from them must be considered as a response to the destruction of the North China Craton.     

马鞍山-铜陵-安庆长江沿线上地壳速度结构成像

利用安徽人工震源地下结构探测科学实验开展的三维高分辨探测数据,以及初至波走时成像技术,获得了沿长江一线上地壳速度结构成像结果。结果显示,沿长江从马鞍山至安庆,上地壳速度结构存在明显横向差异,沉积盖层厚度和浅表速度在该区呈现明显的隆升和坳陷相间的构造特征,显示了该区域中生代以来经历的隆升和伴随着岩浆活动的伸展作用。     

基于广义极值理论的潜在地震海啸源震级上限及强震重现水平的估计——以琉球海沟俯冲带为例

以琉球海沟俯冲带作为研究区,将广义极值理论用于估计潜在地震海啸源震级上限,首先分析了琉球海沟俯冲带的地震地质构造特征以及历史地震资料,界定潜在地震海啸源区,然后根据地震活动性特征按时间域进行分割,并提取各时间段发生的极限震级的地震样本,最后通过广义极值分布模型估计了该区域的震级上限值和强震重现水平,并对其进行了不确定性分析。     

Multi-resolution graph-based clustering analysis for lithofacies identification from well log data: Case study of intraplatform bank gas fields,Amu Darya Basin

In this study, we used the multi-resolution graph-based clustering (MRGC) method for determining the electrofacies (EF) and lithofacies (LF) from well log data obtained from the intraplatform bank gas fields located in the Amu Darya Basin. The MRGC could automatically determine the optimal number of clusters without prior knowledge about the structure or cluster numbers of the analyzed data set and allowed the users to control the level of detail actually needed to define the EF. Based on the LF identification and successful EF calibration using core data, an MRGC EF partition model including five clusters and a quantitative LF interpretation chart were constructed. The EF clusters 1 to 5 were interpreted as lagoon, anhydrite flat, interbank, low-energy bank, and high-energy bank, and the coincidence rate in the cored interval could reach 85%. We concluded that the MRGC could be accurately applied to predict the LF in non-cored but logged wells. Therefore, continuous EF clusters were partitioned and corresponding LF were interpreted, and the distribution and petrophysical characteristics of different LF were analyzed in the framework of sequence stratigraphy.     

后循环缺血患者椎基底动脉狭窄的3D-TOP-MRA与DSA对照研究

目的:对照分析后循环缺血患者椎基底动脉的3D-TOP-MRA和DSA检查结果,探讨3D-TOP-MRA用于后循环缺血的诊断价值。方法:选取80例后循环缺血患者分别完成椎基底动脉的3D-TOP-MRA和DSA检查,以盲法判断动脉血管的狭窄情况,对比分析两种方法检测结果间的相关性,并系统评价3D-TOP-MRA的诊断效率。结果:以DSA为金标准,3D-TOP-MRA检测出狭窄血管的总体灵敏度为88.23%,轻度、中度、重度狭窄和闭塞的灵敏度分别为57.89%、96.30%、85.71%和100%。3D-TOP-MRA检查出狭窄血管总体特异度为66.67%,轻度、中度、重度狭窄和闭塞的特异度分别为100%、96.23%、92.42%和100%。3D-TOP-MRA检查出狭窄血管的总体准确度为85.00%,轻度、中度、重度狭窄和闭塞的准确度分别为90.00%、96.25%、91.25%和100%。结论:3D-TOP-MRA无创检测后循环缺血患者椎基底动脉的狭窄有较高的准确度和灵敏度,特别是中重度狭窄病例,可作为血管狭窄术前筛查、术后随访重要检查手段,有利于控制后循环缺血诊治过程中的临床风险。      

Impact of climate change on 24‐h design rainfall depth estimation in Qiantang River Basin,East China

The frequency and magnitude of extreme meteorological or hydrological events such as floods and droughts in China have been influenced by global climate change. The water problem due to increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme events in the humid areas has gained great attention in recent years. However, the main challenge in the evaluation of climate change impact on extreme events is that large uncertainty could exist. Therefore, this paper first aims to model possible impacts of climate change on regional extreme precipitation (indicated by 24‐h design rainfall depth) at seven rainfall gauge stations in the Qiantang River Basin, East China. The Long Ashton Research Station‐Weather Generator is adopted to downscale the global projections obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) to regional climate data at site scale. The weather generator is also checked for its performance through three approaches, namely Kolmogorov–Smirnov test, comparison of L‐moment statistics and 24‐h design rainfall depths. Future 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations are estimated using Pearson Type III distribution and L‐moment approach. Second, uncertainty caused by three GCMs under various greenhouse gas emission scenarios for the future periods 2020s (2011–2030), 2055s (2046–2065) and 2090s (2080–2099) is investigated. The final results show that 24‐h design rainfall depth increases in most stations under the three GCMs and emission scenarios. However, there are large uncertainties involved in the estimations of 24‐h design rainfall depths at seven stations because of GCM, emission scenario and other uncertainty sources. At Hangzhou Station, a relative change of ?16% to 113% can be observed in 100y design rainfall depths. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地形对地震烈度衰减的影响

本文采用阶跃截面固体的一维弹性波传播模型,研究了地形对地震烈度衰减的影响。采用固体入射纵波来模拟无地形影响的地震烈度衰减;采用固体透射波来模拟有地形影响的地震烈度衰减。利用阶跃截面处的放松连续条件,得出了烈度与高度差的近似定量关系。同时,以新疆地区逆冲走滑型地震为例,讨论了烈度与高度差的近似定量关系描述地形对地震烈度衰减影响的有效性。