Atmosphere–ionosphere vertical electric coupling above thunderstorms of different intensity

The most important features of the quasi-electrostatic fields (QSFs) and currents, generated in the region between a thunderstorm (TS) and the ionosphere between lightning discharges, are theoretically investigated. They depend on different factors having large variability, related to the TS and to the atmospheric conductivity. These features are studied in order to understand better the conditions when QSFs cause modifications of the parameters and chemical balance in the lower ionosphere over TSs due to electron heating, as well as the generation of red sprites. For this purpose, an analytical model based on Maxwell's equations under conditions of curl-free electric fields is presented. The temporal and spatial behaviour of the QSFs is studied as a function of the parameters of lightning discharges and of atmospheric conductivity. The dependence of the QSF, mainly its peak values, on the charge moment change, the discharge time, and the horizontal extent of the discharged region, on the one hand, and of the conductivity profile, on the other, is studied. It is shown that the profile of the QSF time peak changes its scale height at the altitudes where the relaxation time becomes equal to the discharge time, and where the conductivity scale height is diminished; below these altitudes the peak QSFs decrease with time much slower than above them. Also, the QSF peak increases almost linearly with the charge height and depends little on the size of the discharged region. The total Maxwell and conduction currents, which flow from the TS to the ionosphere, are also studied. The peak current is proportional to the charge moment change, and actually does not depend on the frequency of lightning discharges.     

SPECIFIC DEGRADATION OF WATERSHEDS

An extensive database of reservoir sedimentation surveys throughout continental United States is compiled and analyzed to determine specific degradation SD relationships as function of mean annual rainfall R, drainage area A, and watershed slope S. The database contains 1463 field measurements and specific degradation relationships are defined as function of A, R and S. Weak trends and significant variability in the data are noticeable. Specific degradation measurements are log normally distributed with respect to R, A, and S and 95% confidence intervals are determined accordingly. The accuracy of the predictions does not significantly increase as more independent variables are added to the regression analyses.     

An Experiment Using the High Resolution Eta and WRF Models to Forecast Heavy Precipitation over India

In the present study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) and Eta models, recent heavy rainfall events that occurred (i) over parts of Maharastra during 26 to 27 July, 2005, (ii) over coastal Tamilnadu and south coastal Andhra Pradesh during 24 to 28 October, 2005, and (iii) the tropical cyclone of 30 September to 3 October, 2004/Monsoon Depression of 2 to 5 October 2004, that developed during the withdrawal phase of the southwest monsoon season of 2004 have been investigated. Also sensitivity experiments have been conducted with the WRF model to test the impact of microphysical and cumulus parameterization schemes in capturing the extreme weather events. The results show that the WRF model with the microphysical process and cumulus parameterization schemes of Ferrier et al. and Betts-Miller-Janjic was able to capture the heavy rainfall events better than the other schemes. It is also observed that the WRF model was able to predict mesoscale rainfall more realistically in comparison to the Eta model of the same resolution.     

Tectonic Evolution and Hydrogeological Characteristics of the Khanaser Valley,Northern Syria,Derived from the Interpretation of Vertical Electrical Soundings

The Khanaser Valley was geoelectrically thoroughly surveyed through a grid which consisted of twelve VES profiles. The tectonically-oriented Pichgin and Habibullaev method was enhanced to be applicable in areas of rugged relief and topography. The enhanced profiles were tectonically interpreted and subsurface structures within the Khanaser Valley were delineated. Accordingly, a tectonic evolutional scenario of the valley was established and its hydrogeological characteristics were derived. An approach for groundwater exploration in areas of prominent relief and topography in dry areas such as the Khanaser Valley was established and its validity was estimated.     

Flow and deposition of pyroclastic granular flows: A type example from the 1975 Ngauruhoe eruption,New Zealand

Small-volume pyroclastic density currents (PDCs) are generated frequently during explosive eruptions with little warning. Assessing their hazard requires a physical understanding of their transport and sedimentation processes which is best achieved by the testing of experimental and numerical models of geophysical mass flows against natural flows and/or deposits. To this end we report on one of the most detailed sedimentological studies ever carried out on a series of pristine small-volume PDC deposits from the 1975 eruption of Ngauruhoe volcano, whose emplacement were also witnessed during eruption. Using high-resolution GPS surveys, a series of lateral excavations across the deposits, and bulk sedimentological analysis we constrained the geomorphology, internal structure and texture of the deposits with respect to laterally varying modes of deposition.     

The November 2002 eruption at Piton de la Fournaise volcano,La Réunion Island: ground deformation,seismicity, and pit crater collapse

An eruption on the eastern flank of Piton de la Fournaise volcano started on 16 November, 2002 after 10 months of quiescence. After a relatively constant level of activity during the first 13 days of the eruption, lava discharge, volcanic tremor and seismicity increased from 29 November to 3 December. Lava effusion suddenly ceased on 3 December while shallow earthquakes beneath the Dolomieu summit crater were still recorded at a rate of about one per minute. This unusual activity continued and increased in intensity over the next three weeks, ending with the formation of a pit crater within Dolomieu. Based on ground deformation, measured by rapid-static and continuous GPS and an extensometer, seismic data, and lava effusion patterns, the eruptive period is divided into five stages: 1) slow summit inflation and sporadic seismicity; 2) rapid summit inflation and a short seismic crisis; 3) rapid flank inflation, onset of summit deflation, sporadic seismicity, accompanied by stable effusion; 4) flank inflation, coupled with summit deflation, intense seismicity, and increased lava effusion; and finally 5) little deflation, intense shallow seismicity, and the end of lava effusion. We propose a model in which the pre-intrusive inflation of Stage 1 in the months preceding the eruption was caused by a magma body located near sea level. The magma reservoir was the source of an intrusion rising under the summit during Stage 2. In Stage 3, the magma ponded at a shallow level in the edifice while the lateral injection of a radial dike reached the surface on the eastern flank of the basaltic volcano, causing lava effusion. Pressure decrease in the magmatic plumbing system followed, resulting in upward migration of a collapse front, forming a subterranean column of debris by faulting and stoping. This caused intense shallow seismicity, increase in discharge of lava and volcanic tremor at the lateral vent in Stage 4 and, eventually the formation of a pit crater in Stage 5.     

0.99999999 confidence ambiguity resolution with GPS and Galileo

In this short contribution it is demonstrated how integer carrier phase cycle ambiguity resolution will perform in near future, when the US GPS gets modernized and the European Galileo becomes operational. The capability of ambiguity resolution is analyzed in the context of precise differential positioning over short, medium and long distances. Starting from dual-frequency operation with GPS at present, particularly augmenting the number of satellites turns out to have beneficial consequences on the capability of correctly resolving the ambiguities. With a 'double' constellation, on short baselines, the confidence of the integer ambiguity solution increases to a level of 0.99999999 or beyond. Electronic Publication     

Prediction of surface horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes caused by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir

 Horizontal displacements, and gravity and tilt changes induced by filling the Three Gorges Reservoir are modeled using elastic loading Green functions. When the water surface reaches its highest level, the effects become maximum on the reservoir banks. The longitudinal and latitudinal components of the horizontal displacements reach −8.2 and 7.7 mm respectively, gravity is increased by up to 3.4 mGal, and the prime vertical and meridian components of the tilt changes are −7.8 and −17.5 arcseconds respectively. Accordingly, the filling of the reservoir will influence values observed from global positioning system (GPS), gravimetry and tilt measurements in the area. The results given can be used to provide important corrections for extracting earthquake-related signals from observed data. Received: 19 January 2001 / Accepted: 3 September 2001     

台湾集集大地震断层非均匀滑动分布的反演

利用台湾1999集集大地震前后GPS测量获得的地表位移数据,反演断层面上的非均匀滑动分布.反演中采用二次样条函数作为滑动分布的基函数,通过引入阿卡克贝叶斯准则,获得了反演问题的惟一解.反演得到的地表位移与实测位移的差在几个厘米,较好地解释了观测到的GPS位移.另一方面,用反演结果计算得到的地表形变场同INSAR得到的地表实测位移场较相近.     

利用滚动式相关分析方法普查历史资料初探

介绍了一种新的普查历史资料的方法－滚动式相关分析方法，并将滚动相关分析法与一般相关分析法的相关分析结果进行了对比分析。结果表明，滚动式相关分析方法提高了相关稳定性，预报效果优于一般相关分析法。