Optimal carbon emissions trajectories when damages depend on the rate or level of global warming

In this paper we extend our earlier work with the Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment model (CETA) to consider a number of issues relating to the nature of optimal carbon emissions trajectories. We first explore model results when warming costs are associated with the rate of temperature rise, rather than with its level, as in our earlier work. We find that optimal trajectories are more strongly affected by the degree of non-linearity in the warming cost function than by whether the cost function is driven by the warming level or the warming rate. Next we briefly explore the implications of simple uncertainty and risk aversion for optimal emissions trajectories. We find that uncertainty and risk aversion cause optimal emissions trajectories to be somewhat lower, but that the effect is not noticeable in the near term and not dramatic in the long term; the long term effect on the shadow price of carbon is more marked, however. Finally, we experiment with scaling up the warming cost functions until optimal policies are approximately the same as a policy of stabilizing emissions at the 1990 level. Based on the results of this experiment, we conclude that damages would have to be very high to justify anything like a stabilization policy; and even in this case, a policy allowing intertemporal variation in emissions would be better.This paper does not represent the position of EPRI or of its members.     

Turbulence measurements in a submarine canyon

Profiles of velocity turbulence in Monterey Canyon, made with a recently developed expendable probe, show the existence of a very turbulent bottom boundary layer. The turbulent flow is up to 170 m thick and has peak microscale shears of 1 m s⁻¹ per meter. The rate of dissipation of kinetic energy, based on the observed shear variance, averaged over the depth of the turbulent boundary layer ranged from 70 to 500 × 10⁻⁶W m⁻³. Temperature measurements indicate that the flow was up canyon at a time of low tide. The upper bound for the vertical eddy viscosity is estimated to be17 × 10⁻⁴m²s⁻¹ and for the vertical eddy diffusivity is estimated to be 15 × 10⁻⁴m²s⁻¹. The large vertical scale and the intensity of the observed boundary layer suggest that the flow in Monterey Canyon may be important for the renewal and circulation of water over the continental shelf in the bay area.     

Expert judgment and climate forecasting: A methodological critique of “climate change to the year 2000”

The National Defense University's study of climate change to the year 2000 was based largely on the judgments of the members of two expert panels. Although the study has been widely distributed and apparently read by policy makers in the U.S. and abroad, the method of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment has not been critically reviewed. This paper uses the literature on judgment and subjective probability to evaluate the expert judgment methods used in the study.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

A factor analytic approach to the identification of geomorphic processes from soil particle size characteristics

Q-mode factor analysis of soil particle size data is used to identify the three dominant geomorphic processes responsible for the spatial variability of particle size in a catchment on the basaltic Darling Downs landsurface. Three factors are shown to account for 95 per cent of the textural variability of a suite of transported and sedentary materials. The spatial characteristics of groups of samples associated with the three factors suggests that the three factors are associated with suspended sediment transport and deposition, weathering, and bedload transport and deposition respectively. These interpretations are supported by the detailed graphical analysis of the cumulative particle size curves. The spatially variable influence of the three factors and related processes is given by their respective factor loadings which are mappable for the surface layer materials.     

Ar,N2, and CO2 in the structural cavities of cordierite,an optical and X-ray single-crystal study

Ar, N₂ and CO₂ were introduced into the structural cavities of channel-evacuated single-crystals of White Well cordierite with the composition: K_0.01Na_0.03(Mg_1.91Fe_0.09Mn_0.01)Al_3.98Si_5.01O₁₈. The gas refilling experiments were carried out in conventional hydrothermal bombs at 6–7 kbar and 600–700°C. The increase in the mean refractive indices for gas-treated crystals, as determined with a spindle-stage equipped microscope, was used along with point-dipole calculations to estimate the percentage of occupied structural cavities. The steep increase of the electronic polarizability parallel to the a-axis, which can be derived from the increase of the refractive index n _γ (Z∥a) upon introduction of volatiles, indicates that N₂ and CO₂ are preferentially aligned parallel to the a-axis of cordierite. Single-crystal structure refinements at room temperature confirm these predictions. Additionally, decreased C–O and N–N bond lengths suggest a librational motion with a mean rotary oscillation angle of 35° (N₂) and 25° (CO₂) about a, where c is the rotation axis. Mean libration angles of 40° (N₂) and 28° (CO₂) were estimated from the electronic polarizability tensors of CO₂ and N₂. Site occupancy refinements of the channel position are in good agreement with the optically derived values for the volatile concentrations, both indicating about 70% and 60% filled cavities for Ar- and N₂-cordierite, respectively. Chemical analyses and point-dipole calculations confirm that about 45% of the cavities are occupied in the CO₂-treated crystal. The structural framework of cordierite is slightly but specifically altered by the various channel occupants.