Enhanced residual mean circulation during the evolution of split type sudden stratospheric warming in observations and model simulations

Residual mean circulation changes during the evolution of sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) are investigated by composite analyses of 76 major warming events identified in a present day simulation performed with a coupled ocean–troposphere–stratosphere model from 299 winters. Their dynamical signatures are compared with the 17 SSW events identified from 35 years of Era-Interim data. The main difference is that, relative frequency of simulated SSW events is smaller than that obtained from reanalysis. SSW events are classified as displacement or split events based on the geopotential field values at 10 hPa. The geopotential field values identify 10 and 3 split events in simulation and observation respectively. The model quite accurately simulates some of the dynamical features associated with the major SSW. Residual mean circulation induced by EP-flux divergence, sum of advection and residual forcing are stronger in split events than in displacement type SSW has been confirmed by both simulation and observation. Moreover, the contribution of EP-flux divergence or planetary wave forcing is larger than the contribution of other types of forcing.     

A new GIS-based data mining technique using an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and k-fold cross-validation approach for land subsidence susceptibility mapping

In this paper, we evaluate the predictive performance of an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) using six different membership functions (MF). In combination with a geographic information system (GIS), ANFIS was used for land subsidence susceptibility mapping (LSSM) in the Marand plain, northwest Iran. This area is prone to droughts and low groundwater levels and subsequent land subsidence damages. Therefore, a land subsidence inventory database was created from an extensive field survey. Areas of land subsidence or areas showing initial signs of subsidence were used for training, while one-third of inventory database were reserved for testing and validation. The inventory database randomly divided into three different folds of the same size. One of the folds was chosen for testing and validation. Other two folds was used for training. This process repeated for every fold in the inventory dataset. Thereafter, land subsidence related factors, such as hydrological and topographical factors, were prepared as GIS layers. Areas susceptible to land subsidence were then analyzed using the ANFIS approach, and land subsidence susceptibility maps were created, whereby six different MFs were applied. Lastly, the results derived from each MF were validated with those areas of the land subsidence database that were not used for training. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves were drawn for all LSSMs, and the areas under the curves were calculated. The ROC analyses for the six LSSMs yielded very high prediction values for two out of the six methods, namely the difference of DsigMF (0.958) and GaussMF (0.951). The integration of ANFIS and GIS generally led to high LSSM prediction accuracies. This study demonstrated that the choice of training dataset and the MF significantly affects the results.     

The evolution of the terrestrial-terminating Irish Sea glacier during the last glaciation

Here we reconstruct the last advance to maximum limits and retreat of the Irish Sea Glacier (ISG), the only land-terminating ice lobe of the western British Irish Ice Sheet. A series of reverse bedrock slopes rendered proglacial lakes endemic, forming time-transgressive moraine- and bedrock-dammed basins that evolved with ice marginal retreat. Combining, for the first time on glacial sediments, optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) bleaching profiles for cobbles with single grain and small aliquot OSL measurements on sands, has produced a coherent chronology from these heterogeneously bleached samples. This chronology constrains what is globally an early build-up of ice during late Marine Isotope Stage 3 and Greenland Stadial (GS) 5, with ice margins reaching south Lancashire by 30 ± 1.2 ka, followed by a 120-km advance at 28.3 ± 1.4 ka reaching its 26.5 ± 1.1 ka maximum extent during GS-3. Early retreat during GS-3 reflects piracy of ice sources shared with the Irish-Sea Ice Stream (ISIS), starving the ISG. With ISG retreat, an opportunistic readvance of Welsh ice during GS-2 rode over the ISG moraines occupying the space vacated, with ice margins oscillating within a substantial glacial over-deepening. Our geomorphological chronosequence shows a glacial system forced by climate but mediated by piracy of ice sources shared with the ISIS, changing flow regimes and fronting environments.     

When hazard avoidance is not an option: lessons learned from monitoring the postdisaster Oso landslide,USA

On 22 March 2014, a massive, catastrophic landslide occurred near Oso, Washington, USA, sweeping more than 1 km across the adjacent valley flats and killing 43 people. For the following 5 weeks, hundreds of workers engaged in an exhaustive search, rescue, and recovery effort directly in the landslide runout path. These workers could not avoid the risks posed by additional large-scale slope collapses. In an effort to ensure worker safety, multiple agencies cooperated to swiftly deploy a monitoring and alerting system consisting of sensors, automated data processing and web-based display, along with defined communication protocols and clear calls to action for emergency management and search personnel. Guided by the principle that an accelerating landslide poses a greater threat than a steadily moving or stationary mass, the system was designed to detect ground motion and vibration using complementary monitoring techniques. Near real-time information was provided by continuous GPS, seismometers/geophones, and extensometers. This information was augmented by repeat-assessment techniques such as terrestrial and aerial laser scanning and time-lapse photography. Fortunately, no major additional landsliding occurred. However, we did detect small headscarp failures as well as slow movement of the remaining landslide mass with the monitoring system. This was an exceptional response situation and the lessons learned are applicable to other landslide disaster crises. They underscore the need for cogent landslide expertise and ready-to-deploy monitoring equipment, the value of using redundant monitoring techniques with distinct goals, the benefit of clearly defined communication protocols, and the importance of continued research into forecasting landslide behavior to allow timely warning.

     

Resistivity of reservoir sandstones and organic rich shales on the Barents Shelf:Implications for interpreting CSEM data

Marine controlled source electromagnetic(CSEM)data have been utilized in the past decade during petroleum exploration of the Barents Shelf,particularly for de-risking the highly porous sandstone reservoirs of the Upper Triassic to Middle Jurassic Realgrunnen Subgroup.In this contribution we compare the resistivity response from CSEM data to resistivity from wireline logs in both water-and hydrocarbon-bearing wells.We show that there is a very good match between these types of data,particularly when reservoirs are shallow.CSEM data,however,only provide information on the subsurface resistivity.Careful,geology-driven interpretation of CSEM data is required to maximize the impact on exploration success.This is particularly important when quantifying the relative re-sistivity contribution of high-saturation hydrocarbon-bearing sandstone and that of the overlying cap rock.In the presented case the cap rock comprises predominantly organic rich Upper Jurassic-Early Cretaceous shales of the Hekkingen Formation(i.e.a regional source rock).The resistivity response of the reservoir and its cap rock become merged in CSEM data due to the transverse resistance equivalence principle.As a result of this,it is imperative to understand both the relative contributions from reservoir and cap rock,and the geological sig-nificance of any lateral resistivity variation in each of the units.In this contribution,we quantify the resistivity of organic rich mudstone,i.e.source rock,and reservoir sandstones,using 131 exploration boreholes from the Barents Shelf.The highest resistivity(＞10,000 Ωm)is evident in the hydrocarbon-bearing Realgrunnen Subgroup which is reported from 48 boreholes,43 of which are used for this study.Pay zone resistivity is primarily controlled by reservoir quality(i.e.porosity and shale fraction)and fluid phase(i.e.gas,oil and water saturation).In the investigated wells,the shale dominated Hekkingen Formation exhibits enhanced resistivity compared to the background(i.e.the underlying and overlying stratigraphy),though rarely exceeds 20Ωm.Marine mudstones typically show good correlation between measured organic richness and resistivity/sonic velocity log signatures.We conclude that the resistivity contribution to the CSEM response from hydrocarbon-bearing sandstones out-weighs that of the organic rich cap rocks.     

China’s national carbon emissions trading scheme: lessons from the pilot emission trading schemes,academic literature,and known policy details

Upon completion, China’s national emissions trading scheme (C-ETS) will be the largest carbon market in the world. Recent research has evaluated China’s seven pilot ETSs launched from 2013 on, and academic literature on design aspects of the C-ETS abounds. Yet little is known about the specific details of the upcoming C-ETS. This article combines currently understood details of China’s national carbon market with lessons learned in the pilot schemes as well as from the academic literature. Our review follows the taxonomy of Emissions Trading in Practice: A Handbook on Design and Implementation (Partnership for Market Readiness & International Carbon Action Partnership. (2016). Retrieved from www.worldbank.org): The 10 categories are: scope, cap, distribution of allowances, use of offsets, temporal flexibility, price predictability, compliance and oversight, stakeholder engagement and capacity building, linking, implementation and improvements.

Key policy insights

• Accurate emissions data is paramount for both design and implementation, and its availability dictates the scope of the C-ETS.

• The stakeholder consultative process is critical for effective design, and China is able to build on its extensive experience through the pilot ETSs.

• Current policies and positions on intensity targets and Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits constrain the market design of the C-ETS.

• Most critical is the nature of the cap. The currently discussed rate-based cap with ex post adjustment is risky. Instead, an absolute, mass-based emissions cap coupled with the conditional use of permits would allow China to maintain flexibility in the carbon market while ensuring a limit on CO₂ emissions.

     

Loss of energy dissipation capacity from the deadzone in linear and nonlinear viscous damping devices

In a viscous damping device under cyclic loading, after the piston reaches a peak stroke, the reserve movement that follows may sometimes experience a short period of delayed or significantly reduced device force output. A similar delay or reduced device force output may also occur at the damper’s initial stroke as it moves away from its neutral position. This phenomenon is referred to as the effect of “deadzone”. The deadzone can cause a loss of energy dissipation capacity and less efficient vibration control. It is prominent in small amplitude vibrations. Although there are many potential causes of deadzone such as environmental factors, construction, material aging, and manufacture quality, in this paper, its general effect in linear and nonlinear viscous damping devices is analyzed. Based on classical dynamics and damping theory, a simple model is developed to capture the effect of deadzone in terms of the loss of energy dissipation capacity. The model provides several methods to estimate the loss of energy dissipation within the deadzone in linear and sublinear viscous fluid dampers. An empirical equation of loss of energy dissipation capacity versus deadzone size is formulated, and the equivalent reduction of effective damping in SDOF systems has been obtained. A laboratory experimental evaluation is carried out to verify the effect of deadzone and its numerical approximation. Based on the analysis, a modification is suggested to the corresponding formulas in FEMA 356 for calculation of equivalent damping if a deadzone is to be considered.     

‘Let this forest for ever rest’:* tracking protest and identity in Australia’s forests

ABSTRACT

Exploitation of natural resources has long been a flashpoint for contention in Australia. This is clear in the case of forest management, where groups advocating protection have faced off against state and industry actors. The move towards multifunctionalism that recognises different values in the management of natural resources has led to a search for alternative solutions. In the case of forestry, introduction of Regional Forest Agreements (RFA) in the 1990s sought to devolve responsibility to the States, while striking a balance between economic and environmental considerations. The aim of this paper is to identify how forest activism has developed since the RFA process began and its significance in relation to changes in land use. The paper draws on a protest event catalogue of forest-related events over the 1997–2017 period to identify the intensity, tactics and location of such actions. The findings suggest that state action has reduced the intensity of contention, in line with changes in resource management practices. However, they also point to the importance of identity and its link to the social construction of resources in determining the ability of actors to de-escalate and find solutions.