Development and testing of a coupled ocean–atmosphere mesoscale ensemble prediction system

A coupled ocean–atmosphere mesoscale ensemble prediction system has been developed by the Naval Research Laboratory. This paper describes the components and implementation of the system and presents baseline results from coupled ensemble simulations for two tropical cyclones. The system is designed to take into account major sources of uncertainty in: (1) non-deterministic dynamics, (2) model error, and (3) initial states. The purpose of the system is to provide mesoscale ensemble forecasts for use in probabilistic products, such as reliability and frequency of occurrence, and in risk management applications. The system components include COAMPS® (Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System) and NCOM (Navy Coastal Ocean Model) for atmosphere and ocean forecasting and NAVDAS (NRL Atmospheric Variational Data Assimilation System) and NCODA (Navy Coupled Ocean Data Assimilation) for atmosphere and ocean data assimilation. NAVDAS and NCODA are 3D-variational (3DVAR) analysis schemes. The ensembles are generated using separate applications of the Ensemble Transform (ET) technique in both the atmosphere (for moving or non-moving nests) and the ocean. The atmospheric ET is computed using wind, temperature, and moisture variables, while the oceanographic ET is derived from ocean current, temperature, and salinity variables. Estimates of analysis error covariance, which is used as a constraint in the ET, are provided by the ocean and atmosphere 3DVAR assimilation systems. The newly developed system has been successfully tested for a variety of configurations, including differing model resolution, number of members, forecast length, and moving and fixed nest options. Results from relatively coarse resolution (～27-km) ensemble simulations of Hurricanes Hanna and Ike demonstrate that the ensemble can provide valuable uncertainty information about the storm track and intensity, though the ensemble mean provides only a small amount of improved predictive skill compared to the deterministic control member.     

A new chlorite geothermometer for diagenetic to low-grade metamorphic conditions

The evolution of chlorite composition with temperature (and pressure) serves as basis to a number of chlorite chemical thermometers, for which the oxidation state of iron has been recognised as a recurrent issue, especially at low temperature (T). A new chlorite geothermometer that does not require prior Fe³⁺ knowledge is formulated, calibrated on 161 analyses with well-constrained T data covering a wide range of geological contexts and tested here for low-T chlorites (T < 350 °C and pressures below 4 kbar). The new solid-solution model used involves six end-member components (the Mg and Fe end-members of ‘Al-free chlorite S’, sudoite and amesite) and so accounts for all low-T chlorite compositions; ideal mixing on site is assumed, with an ordered cationic distribution in tetrahedral and octahedral sites. Applied to chlorite analyses from three distinct low-T environments for which independent T data are available (Gulf Coast, Texas; Saint Martin, Lesser Antilles; Toyoha, Hokkaido), the new pure-Fe²⁺ thermometer performs at least as well as the recent models, which require an estimate of Fe³⁺ content. This relief from the ferric iron issue, combined with the simple formulation of the semi-empirical approach, makes the present thermometer a very practical tool, well suited for, for example, the handling of large analytical datasets—provided it is used in the calibration range (T < 350 °C, P < 4 kbar).