Millimetric properties of gamma-ray burst host galaxies

We present millimetre (mm) and submillimetre (submm) photometry of a sample of five host galaxies of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), obtained using the Max Planck Millimetre Bolometer (MAMBO2) array and Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA). These observations were obtained as part of an ongoing project to investigate the status of GRBs as indicators of star formation. Our targets include two of the most unusual GRB host galaxies, selected as likely candidate submm galaxies: the extremely red  ( R − K ≈ 5)  host of GRB 030115, and the extremely faint  ( R > 29.5)  host of GRB 020124. Neither of these galaxies is detected, but the deep upper limits for GRB 030115 impose constraints on its spectral energy distribution, requiring a warmer dust temperature than is commonly adopted for submillimetre galaxies (SMGs).
As a framework for interpreting these data, and for predicting the results of forthcoming submm surveys of Swift -derived host samples, we model the expected flux and redshift distributions based on luminosity functions of both submm galaxies and GRBs, assuming a direct proportionality between the GRB rate density and the global star formation rate density. We derive the effects of possible sources of uncertainty in these assumptions, including (1) introducing an anticorrelation between GRB rate and the global average metallicity, and (2) varying the dust temperature.     

Evidence for energy injection and a fine-tuned central engine at optical wavelengths in GRB 070419A

We present a comprehensive multiwavelength temporal and spectral analysis of the 'fast rise exponential decay' GRB 070419A. The early-time emission in the γ-ray and X-ray bands can be explained by a central engine active for at least 250 s, while at late times the X-ray light curve displays a simple power-law decay. In contrast, the observed behaviour in the optical band is complex (from 10² up to 10⁶ s). We investigate the light-curve behaviour in the context of the standard forward/reverse shock model; associating the peak in the optical light curve at ∼450 s with the fireball deceleration time results in a Lorenz factor  Γ≈ 350  at this time. In contrast, the shallow optical decay between 450 and 1500 s remains problematic, requiring a reverse shock component whose typical frequency is above the optical band at the optical peak time for it to be explained within the standard model. This predicts an increasing flux density for the forward shock component until   t ∼ 4 × 10⁶ s  , inconsistent with the observed decay of the optical emission from   t ∼ 10⁴ s  . A highly magnetized fireball is also ruled out due to unrealistic microphysic parameters and predicted light-curve behaviour that is not observed. We conclude that a long-lived central engine with a finely tuned energy injection rate and a sudden cessation of the injection is required to create the observed light curves, consistent with the same conditions that are invoked to explain the plateau phase of canonical X-ray light curves of γ-ray bursts.     

Redefining homogeneous climate regions in Bangladesh using multivariate clustering approaches

Natural Hazards - The knowledge of the climate pattern for a particular region is important for taking appropriate actions to alleviate the impact of climate change. It is also equally important...     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.     

Deep Gemini/GMOS imaging of an extremely isolated globular cluster in the Local Group

We report on deep imaging of a remote M31 globular cluster, MGC1, obtained with Gemini/GMOS. Our colour–magnitude diagram for this object extends ∼5 mag below the tip of the red-giant branch and exhibits features consistent with an ancient metal-poor stellar population, including a long, well-populated horizontal branch. The red-giant branch locus suggests MGC1 has a metal abundance  [M/H]≈−2.3  . We measure the distance to MGC1 and find that it lies ∼160 kpc in front of M31 with a distance modulus  μ= 23.95 ± 0.06  . Combined with its large projected separation of   R _p= 117 kpc  from M31, this implies a deprojected radius of   R _gc= 200 ± 20 kpc  , rendering it the most isolated known globular cluster in the Local Group by some considerable margin. We construct a radial brightness profile for MGC1 and show that it is both centrally compact and rather luminous, with   M_V =−9.2  . Remarkably, the cluster profile shows no evidence for a tidal limit and we are able to trace it to a radius of at least 450 pc, and possibly as far as ∼900 pc. The profile exhibits a power-law fall-off with exponent  γ=−2.5  , breaking to  γ=−3.5  in its outermost parts. This core-halo structure is broadly consistent with expectations derived from numerical models, and suggests that MGC1 has spent many gigayears in isolation.     

Determinants of farmers’ choice of adaptation methods to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia

This study identifies the major methods used by farmers to adapt to climate change in the Nile Basin of Ethiopia, the factors that affect their choice of method, and the barriers to adaptation. The methods identified include use of different crop varieties, tree planting, soil conservation, early and late planting, and irrigation. Results from the discrete choice model employed indicate that the level of education, gender, age, and wealth of the head of household; access to extension and credit; information on climate, social capital, agroecological settings, and temperature all influence farmers’ choices. The main barriers include lack of information on adaptation methods and financial constraints.     

Radar rainfall uncertainty modelling influenced by wind

Radar‐based estimates of rainfall are affected by many sources of uncertainties, which would propagate through the hydrological model when radar rainfall estimates are used as input or initial conditions. An elegant solution to quantify these uncertainties is to model the empirical relationship between radar measurements and rain gauge observations (as the ‘ground reference’). However, most current studies only use a fixed and uniform model to represent the uncertainty of radar rainfall, without consideration of its variation under different synoptic regimes. Wind is such a typical weather factor, as it not only induces error in rain gauge measurements but also causes the raindrops observed by weather radar to drift when they reach the ground. For this reason, as a first attempt, this study introduces the wind field into the uncertainty model and designs the radar rainfall uncertainty model under different wind conditions. We separate the original dataset into three subsamples according to wind speed, which are named as WDI (0–2 m/s), WDII (2–4 m/s) and WDIII (>4 m/s). The multivariate distributed ensemble generator is introduced and established for each subsample. Thirty typical events (10 at each wind range) are selected to explore the behaviours of uncertainty under different wind ranges. In each time step, 500 ensemble members are generated, and the values of 5th to 95th percentile values are used to produce the uncertainty bands. Two basic features of uncertainty bands, namely dispersion and ensemble bias, increase significantly with the growth of wind speed, demonstrating that wind speed plays a considerable role in influencing the behaviour of the uncertainty band. On the basis of these pieces of evidence, we conclude that the radar rainfall uncertainty model established under different wind conditions should be more realistic in representing the radar rainfall uncertainty. This study is only a start in incorporating synoptic regimes into rainfall uncertainty analysis, and a great deal of more effort is still needed to build a realistic and comprehensive uncertainty model for radar rainfall data. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Precious-metal distribution and fluid-inclusion petrography of the Elatsite porphyry copper deposit,Bulgaria

The Elatsite porphyry copper deposit occurs in an island-arc setting hosted by Late Cretaceous monzonitic-monzodioritic porphyry stocks which were emplaced into Precambrian-Cambrian phyllites. Trace element data of the Late Cretaceous intrusive rocks suggest that they are I-type volcanic arc granitoids. Two main ore mineral assemblages are distinguished: (1) magnetite-bornite-chalcopyrite, and (2) chalcopyrite-pyrite. The first one is linked to potassic-propylitic, and the second to phyllic-argillic alteration. Minor ore minerals are hematite, molybdenite, sphalerite, pyrrhotite, marcasite, hessite, and solid solutions of linnaeite-siegenite-carrollite, tetrahedrite-tennantite, clausthalite-galena, gold-electrum and merenskyite-moncheite. Precious-metal contents are relatively high throughout the deposit but Au, Pd and Pt are concentrated more strongly in the magnetite-bornite-chalcopyrite assemblage. Average grades of Au, Ag, Pd and Pt calculated for the 0.33% Cu ore body are 0.96, 0.19, 0.007 and 0.002 g/t respectively. Analyses of flotation concentrates revealed 25.6% Cu, and Ag, Au, Pd and Pt contents of 33.0, 13.6, 0.72 and 0.15 g/t respectively. The copper mineralisation at Elatsite took place at pressures of 120 to 300 bar, corresponding to depths of formation of 1 to 3 km under hydrostatic conditions. The precious metals were probably transported jointly as chloride complexes in highly saline magmatic-hydrothermal solutions. The fluids had temperatures of 340 to >700 °C and salinities of 28 to 64% NaCl, and mixed with meteoric water.