Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3–12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R² = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R² = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R² = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through ‘Nowcasting’, thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.     

Millimetric properties of gamma-ray burst host galaxies

We present millimetre (mm) and submillimetre (submm) photometry of a sample of five host galaxies of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs), obtained using the Max Planck Millimetre Bolometer (MAMBO2) array and Submillimetre Common-User Bolometer Array (SCUBA). These observations were obtained as part of an ongoing project to investigate the status of GRBs as indicators of star formation. Our targets include two of the most unusual GRB host galaxies, selected as likely candidate submm galaxies: the extremely red  ( R − K ≈ 5)  host of GRB 030115, and the extremely faint  ( R > 29.5)  host of GRB 020124. Neither of these galaxies is detected, but the deep upper limits for GRB 030115 impose constraints on its spectral energy distribution, requiring a warmer dust temperature than is commonly adopted for submillimetre galaxies (SMGs).
As a framework for interpreting these data, and for predicting the results of forthcoming submm surveys of Swift -derived host samples, we model the expected flux and redshift distributions based on luminosity functions of both submm galaxies and GRBs, assuming a direct proportionality between the GRB rate density and the global star formation rate density. We derive the effects of possible sources of uncertainty in these assumptions, including (1) introducing an anticorrelation between GRB rate and the global average metallicity, and (2) varying the dust temperature.     

A new population of extended, luminous star clusters in the halo of M31

We present three new clusters discovered in the halo of M31 which, although having globular-like colours and luminosities, have unusually large half-light radii, ∼30 pc. They lie at projected galactocentric distances of ≈15 to ≈35 kpc. These objects begin to fill the gap in parameter space between globular clusters and dwarf spheroidals, and are unlike any clusters found in the Milky Way, or elsewhere to date. Colour–magnitude diagrams, integrated photometric properties and derived King profile fit parameters are given, and we discuss possible origins of these clusters and their relationships to other populations.     

An effective visualization and comparison of online terrain draped with multi-sensor satellite images

The objective of this paper is to discuss the effectiveness of visualizing online 3D terrain draped with different satellite imageries. The topographic data of the study area were obtained from the contour maps of Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, Malaysia. The high resolution satellite imageries used in this project involving QUICKBIRD (0.6 m resolution), IKONOS (1 m resolution), and SPOT5 (5 m resolution). R2V software was used for editing the contour data, whereas Arc GIS was used for overlaying the imageries over the 3D terrain data. Then the data were exported into Virtual Reality Markup Language to compare the effectiveness of different satellite imageries based on the data file size, imageries size, number of images tile, loading time during office hours (from 8 a.m. to 5 p.m.) and out of office hours (after 5 p.m.), frame rate per second, and visualization quality. The results revealed that IKONOS satellite imageries are better for an effective online 3D terrain visualization utilizing GIS data even though it has lower resolution compared to QUICKBIRD.     

Potential fish habitat mapping using MODIS-derived sea surface salinity,temperature and chlorophyll-a data: South China Sea Coastal areas,Malaysia

This paper demonstrates the use of moderate resolution imaging spectro-radiometer (MODIS) data for fish forecasting mapping of seasonal spatial distribution of sea surface salinity (SSS), temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a in the ocean waters off the coast of Semporna, Malaysia. Multi-linear regression analysis was performed to estimate SSS and the Brown and Minnet algorithm was used for the SST. The extracted parameters were validated using in situ measurement taken with Hydro-Lab equipment. The extracted parameters from MODIS images reveal the signature values which establish the relationships between these parameters, and thus delineating the potential fish zonation (PFZ) map. These developed models will help for accurate monitoring of large coverage areas at low cost and within short period of time. Furthermore, such models will allow the prediction of the total fish catch in different seasons, thus contributing to fish industry management and marketing. This research recommends the use of PFZ map for mass scale fish harvesting in short time for larger areas. Finally, the research has developed a potential fish zone model amalgamating all the above parameters. The PFZ mapping was carried out off the coast of Semporna, Sabah as there were sufficient fish catch data for accuracy assessment. The R was computed as 0.93 and the higher fish catch areas have coincided very well with the higher PFZ values, meaning the tool is ready for use for operational near real-time fish forecasting.     

Evidence for energy injection and a fine-tuned central engine at optical wavelengths in GRB 070419A

We present a comprehensive multiwavelength temporal and spectral analysis of the 'fast rise exponential decay' GRB 070419A. The early-time emission in the γ-ray and X-ray bands can be explained by a central engine active for at least 250 s, while at late times the X-ray light curve displays a simple power-law decay. In contrast, the observed behaviour in the optical band is complex (from 10² up to 10⁶ s). We investigate the light-curve behaviour in the context of the standard forward/reverse shock model; associating the peak in the optical light curve at ∼450 s with the fireball deceleration time results in a Lorenz factor  Γ≈ 350  at this time. In contrast, the shallow optical decay between 450 and 1500 s remains problematic, requiring a reverse shock component whose typical frequency is above the optical band at the optical peak time for it to be explained within the standard model. This predicts an increasing flux density for the forward shock component until   t ∼ 4 × 10⁶ s  , inconsistent with the observed decay of the optical emission from   t ∼ 10⁴ s  . A highly magnetized fireball is also ruled out due to unrealistic microphysic parameters and predicted light-curve behaviour that is not observed. We conclude that a long-lived central engine with a finely tuned energy injection rate and a sudden cessation of the injection is required to create the observed light curves, consistent with the same conditions that are invoked to explain the plateau phase of canonical X-ray light curves of γ-ray bursts.     

Flooding and its relationship with land cover change,population growth,and road density

Bangladesh experiences frequent hydro-climatic disasters such as flooding.These disasters are believed to be associated with land use changes and climate variability.However,identifying the factors that lead to flooding is challenging.This study mapped flood susceptibility in the northeast region of Bangladesh using Bayesian regularization back propagation(BRBP)neural network,classification and regression trees(CART),a statistical model(STM)using the evidence belief function(EBF),and their ensemble models(EMs)for three time periods(2000,2014,and 2017).The accuracy of machine learning algorithms(MLAs),STM,and EMs were assessed by considering the area under the curve-receiver operating char-acteristic(AUC-ROC).Evaluation of the accuracy levels of the aforementioned algorithms revealed that EM4(BRBP-CART-EBF)outperformed(AUC＞90％)standalone and other ensemble models for the three time periods analyzed.Furthermore,this study investigated the relationships among land cover change(LCC),population growth(PG),road density(RD),and relative change of flooding(RCF)areas for the per-iod between 2000 and 2017.The results showed that areas with very high susceptibility to flooding increased by 19.72％between 2000 and 2017,while the PG rate increased by 51.68％over the same period.The Pearson correlation coefficient for RCF and RD was calculated to be 0.496.These findings highlight the significant association between floods and causative factors.The study findings could be valuable to policymakers and resource managers as they can lead to improvements in flood management and reduction in flood damage and risks.