Young star clusters in the Large Magellanic Cloud: NGC 1805 and 1818

We present colour–magnitude diagrams for two rich (≈10⁴ M_⊙) Large Magellanic Cloud star clusters with ages ≈10⁷ yr, constructed from optical and near-infrared data obtained with the Hubble Space Telescope . These data are part of an HST project to study LMC clusters with a range of ages. In this paper we investigate the massive star content of the young clusters, and determine the cluster ages and metallicities, paying particular attention to Be-star and blue-straggler populations and evidence of age spreads. We compare our data with detailed stellar-population simulations to investigate the turn-off structure of ≈25 Myr stellar systems, highlighting the complexity of the blue-straggler phenomenon.     

On the use of Principal Component Analysis in analysing Cepheid light curves

We show how Principal Component Analysis can be used to analyse the structure of Cepheid light curves. This method is more efficient than Fourier analysis at bringing out changes in light curve shape as a function of period. Using this technique, we study the shape of fundamental and first-overtone mode Cepheid light curves in the Galaxy, LMC and SMC over a wide period range. For fundamentals, we find evidence for structural changes at     It is suggested that the feature at     is associated with a resonance in the Cepheid normal-mode spectrum. For overtones, we recover the Z shape in the R ₂₁ period plane and reproduce the metallicity dependence of this Z shape.     

Ocean Rise Instability in Coastal Clay Slopes and Possible Countermeasures: A Centrifuge Modeling Study

Increase in saturation in natural clayey slopes along coastal zones as a result of tsunamis or storm surges may cause flow slides or failures. One of the common treatments is to increase the overall stability by soil replacement and/or re-compaction, which is often difficult to implement, expensive, and, most importantly, damages the natural vegetation. In this paper, remedial effectiveness of a relatively economical and environmentally friendly method involving insertion of geotextile strips with drainage capability into natural clayey slopes is evaluated through a series of centrifuge tests. The test results demonstrate the effectiveness of the employed technique to increase the stability of slopes and their drainage capability as well as to reduce the deformations under surcharge loadings.     

Monthly total sediment forecasting using adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system

Accurate forecasting of sediment is an important issue for reservoir design and water pollution control in rivers and reservoirs. In this study, an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) approach is used to construct monthly sediment forecasting system. To illustrate the applicability of ANFIS method the Great Menderes basin is chosen as the study area. The models with various input structures are constructed for the purpose of identification of the best structure. The performance of the ANFIS models in training and testing sets are compared with the observed data. To get more accurate evaluation of the results ANFIS models, the best fit model structures are also tested by artificial neural networks (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) methods. The results of three methods are compared, and it is observed that the ANFIS is preferable and can be applied successfully because it provides high accuracy and reliability for forecasting of monthly total sediment.     

Gamma ray burst studies with THESEUS

Gamma-ray Bursts (GRBs) are the most powerful transients in the Universe, over–shining for a few seconds all other γ-ray sky sources. Their emission is produced within narrowly collimated relativistic jets launched after the core–collapse of massive stars or the merger of compact binaries. THESEUS will open a new window for the use of GRBs as cosmological tools by securing a statistically significant sample of high-z GRBs, as well as by providing a large number of GRBs at low–intermediate redshifts extending the current samples to low luminosities. The wide energy band and unprecedented sensitivity of the Soft X-ray Imager (SXI) and X-Gamma rays Imaging Spectrometer (XGIS) instruments provide us a new route to unveil the nature of the prompt emission. For the first time, a full characterisation of the prompt emission spectrum from 0.3 keV to 10 MeV with unprecedented large count statistics will be possible revealing the signatures of synchrotron emission. SXI spectra, extending down to 0.3 keV, will constrain the local metal absorption and, for the brightest events, the progenitors’ ejecta composition. Investigation of the nature of the internal energy dissipation mechanisms will be obtained through the systematic study with XGIS of the sub-second variability unexplored so far over such a wide energy range. THESEUS will follow the spectral evolution of the prompt emission down to the soft X–ray band during the early steep decay and through the plateau phase with the unique ability of extending above 10 keV the spectral study of these early afterglow emission phases.

     

Error distribution modelling of satellite soil moisture measurements for hydrological applications

Satellite‐based soil moisture data accuracies are of important concerns by hydrologists because they could significantly influence hydrological modelling uncertainty. Without proper quantification of their uncertainties, it is difficult to optimize the hydrological modelling system and make robust decisions. Currently, the satellite soil moisture data uncertainty has been limited to summary statistics with the validations mainly from the in situ measurements. This study attempts to build the first error distribution model with additional higher‐order uncertainty modelling for satellite soil moisture observations. The methodology is demonstrated by a case study using the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity satellite soil moisture observations. The validation is based on soil moisture estimates from hydrological modelling, which is more relevant to the intended data use than the in situ measurements. Four probability distributions have been explored to find suitable error distribution curves using the statistical tests and bootstrapping resampling technique. General extreme value is identified as the most suitable one among all the curves. The error distribution model is still in its infant stage, which ignores spatial and temporal correlations, and nonstationarity. Further improvements should be carried out by the hydrological community by expanding the methodology to a wide range of satellite soil moisture data using different hydrological models. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Probabilistic radar rainfall nowcasts using empirical and theoretical uncertainty models

Weather radar has a potential to provide accurate short‐term (0–3 h) forecasts of rainfall (i.e. radar nowcasts), which are of great importance in warnings and risk management for hydro‐meteorological events. However, radar nowcasts are affected by large uncertainties, which are not only linked to limitations in the forecast method but also because of errors in the radar rainfall measurement. The probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting approach attempts to quantify these uncertainties by delivering the forecasts in a probabilistic form. This study implements two forms of probabilistic quantitative precipitation nowcasting for a hilly area in the south of Manchester, namely, the theoretically based scheme [ensemble rainfall forecasts (ERF)‐TN] and the empirically based scheme (ERF‐EM), and explores which one exhibits higher predictive skill. The ERF‐TN scheme generates ensemble forecasts of rainfall in which each ensemble member is determined by the stochastic realisation of a theoretical noise component. The so‐called ERF‐EM scheme proposed and applied for the first time in this study, aims to use an empirically based error model to measure and quantify the combined effect of all the error sources in the radar rainfall forecasts. The essence of the error model is formulated into an empirical relation between the radar rainfall forecasts and the corresponding ‘ground truth’ represented by the rainfall field from rain gauges measurements. The ensemble members generated by the two schemes have been compared with the rain gauge rainfall. The hit rate and the false alarm rate statistics have been computed and combined into relative operating characteristic curves. The comparison of the performance scores for the two schemes shows that the ERF‐EM achieves better performance than the ERF‐TN at 1‐h lead time. The predictive skills of both schemes are almost identical when the lead time increases to 2 h. In addition, the relation between uncertainty in the radar rainfall forecasts and lead time is also investigated by computing the dispersion of the generated ensemble members. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Paleoenvironment of deposition of the Dupi Tila Formation,Lalmai Hills,Comilla, Bangladesh

The Dupi Tila Formation is composed of yellow to light brown medium to very fine moderately hard to loose sandstone, siltstone, silty clay, mudstone and shale with some conglomerates with clasts of petrified wood. The lithofacies of matrix supported conglomerate, trough cross bedded conglomerate, massive sandstone, trough cross bedded sandstone, planar cross bedded sandstone, ripple cross laminated sandstone-siltstone, flaser laminated sandstone-shale, lenticular laminated sandstone-siltstone-shale, parallel laminated sandstone-siltstone, wavy laminated shale, parallel laminated blue shale, and mudstone are delineated within this formation. Based on the grain size, sedimentary structures, water depth and genesis of individual facies, facies are grouped into three types of facies associations like (i) coarse-grained conglomerate facies association in relation to tractive current deposits of alluvial fan set up at the base of litho-succession (FAC), (ii) medium to fine-grained sandstone-siltstone-mudstone facies association or facies association in relation to strong tide (FAT) characterizing the middle part of litho-succession, (iii) very fine-grained sandstone-siltstone-mudstone facies association in relation to less frequent weak tide or heterolithic facies association (FAHL) characterizing upper part of litho-succession and shallow marine facies association (FASM) composing the uppermost litho-succession. Presence of gluconite indicates that the depositional environment was shallow to deep marine. The dominant paleoflow direction during the deposition of Dupi Tila Formation was toward southeast to southwestern direction. The rivers were of braided type at the piedmont alluvial depositional set up at the lower part, which later changed to estuarine-tidal flat type environmental set up in the middle part to upper part and paleo-environment was shallow marine in the uppermost part.     

Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia

Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3–12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R² = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R² = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R² = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through ‘Nowcasting’, thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.