贵州辐射雾的时空变化特征及其气象要素分析

选取2008—2012年贵州省3646站次的辐射雾天气过程,根据08时能见度大小将其划分为4级雾、3级雾、2级雾和1级雾四个等级,利用常规地面观测资料分析其时空变化特征,并根据辐射雾多发生区选取出修文、三穗和凤冈3个分布在贵州省高速干道上的站点,利用相应地面气象观测台站的逐日逐时实测气象要素资料,分析其不同等级的气象要素特征。结果表明:各等级辐射雾在10月—次年1月发生较多;空间分布呈"东多西少"格局,4级雾主要分布中心为修文和岑巩,其余等级辐射雾主要分布中心为三穗、凤冈、平塘、正安、松桃和锦屏;修文站的4级雾偏多与其平均相对湿度明显偏高、风速小于3 m/s和风向主要为偏东风相关性较高;三穗站和凤冈站的平均相对湿度与当日08时和前一日20时的气温差相对利于雾的生成,但其风速较小,垂直混合较弱,故其主要为较低等级雾。     

同化FY3B/IRAS资料对GRAPES分析场影响诊断

GRAPES(Globe and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System)变分系统能够同化常规资料和非常规卫星资料,这些被同化的资料究竟对同化系统得到的分析场有何影响,目前国内外尚未见相关的研究文献。为此,首次采用基于信息熵信号自由度思想,诊断风云三号B星(FY3B)红外分光计(Infrared Atmospheric Sounder,IRAS)资料对GRAPES分析场的影响。诊断过程中,采用数值逼近方法,统计2012年12月24日18时到2013年1月22日00时共114个时次IRAS资料对GRAPES分析场影响,结果表明,IRAS中高层通道亮温资料对GRAPES分析场影响比地表通道20观测亮温的影响大,地表通道8和9观测亮温对分析场影响较大。前24个GRAPES变分同化时次每个时次IRAS通道亮温对分析场影响的贡献率分析结果显示,高层通道和H_2O通道贡献率较大。个例分析结果表明,在同化探空资料基础上加入IRAS资料后,温度和湿度增量场变化幅度较大,表明IRAS资料对分析场有降温和增湿作用。     

Shield Tunneling in Rock–Soil Interface Composite Formations

With increased demand for the tunnel construction in rock–soil interface composite formations, the influence on surrounding environment especially the excavation face instability during construction and ground settlement in the long term has gained great attention. The researches about environmental disturbance by shield tunneling construction in single ground as the soil or rock conditions have been developed continuously. However, due to the complexity and uncertainty of the interaction between rock–soil interface composite formations and shield machines, works on these special conditions have not been carried out sufficiently. In this paper the theoretical, experimental and numerical researches on the excavation face stability and ground settlement are discussed while the in situ datum are used to support them. First, the typical projects in rock–soil interface composite formations are listed and the difficulties met are summarized. Second, the failure model of excavation face and support pressure from the tunneling shield in rock–soil interface composite formations are discussed. Then, a comprehensive survey of the factors of ground settlement during and after construction and some effective prediction models are made. Finally, the existing problems and directions for future research are introduced.     

Research on comprehensive carrying capacity of Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region based on state-space method

Based on state-space method and component analysis, this paper builds a comprehensive evaluation system of carrying capacity for the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region from four aspects, namely economy, environment, ecology and energy. The results show that the comprehensive carrying capacity in this region gradually rises in recent years and the economic carrying capacity plays an important role in this situation. Ecological and environmental carrying capacity are gradually enhanced but still affected by water shortages. The energy carrying capacity of this region is low, which is the major factor restricting its sustainable development. Based on the empirical results, following policy suggestions should be adopted: Firstly, local government should accelerate technological progress, promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure; Secondly, the contradiction between supply and demand of water resource should be solved gradually; thirdly, government should develop recycling economy, realizing the coordinated development of economy and environment; last but not least, saving energy and improving energy efficiency.     

底水油层水平井产液剖面均衡性评价

胜利油田开采底水特征高含水油层的水平井数量多,其中油层向水平井非均衡供液现象普遍。为评价此类水平井产液剖面均衡性,量化其生产动态改善潜力,定义了产液剖面基尼系数GN,并结合现场案例介绍其计算方法,随后统计胜利油田60口样本井,分析GN对见水时间tRL和底水突破前累积产油量QRL的影响,最后据此对GN分级。计算和分析结果表明:GN可以整体表征实际非均衡产液剖面偏离理想均衡产液剖面的程度,通常取值0~1之间,数值越大,均衡性越差;划分GN0.1为产液剖面不均衡,其样本井数54口,占比90%,以理想均衡产液状态为基准,tRL和QRL分别至少有100%和69.5%的提升潜力。     

中国大陆降水时空变异规律——Ⅲ. 趋势变化原因

中国大陆现代降水表现出若干长期变化特征,对现代降水趋势性变化的原因,目前还没有很好了解。结合多种资料分析以及前人研究成果,对中国大陆近几十年降水变化趋势的原因进行了探讨,得到以下初步认识:① 现代降水量变化趋势具有明显的地域性差异,全国平均没有表现出显著增加或减少的长期变化,但强降水事件频率和降水量出现明显增多,而小雨事件特别是痕量降水事件显著减少。② 再分析资料表明,最近几十年全国水汽净收支量在一定程度上增加了,实际观测资料显示近地面和对流层中下层空气比湿或大气可降水量出现较明显上升趋势。③ 代用资料序列分析显示,全国大部地区近几十年降水变化仍处于晚近历史时期正常自然波动范围内;近百年观测的降水量序列也表明,黄淮海地区降水具有多重时间尺度相互叠加作用特点,低频自然气候变异的影响信号有清晰表现。④ 人类活动引起的大气中温室气体浓度增加对全国或东部季风区现代降水变化影响的信号,目前仍难以识别;区域性近地面风速减弱导致的雨量观测系统偏差以及大范围气溶胶浓度增加,可能是东部季风区大多数台站观测到的强降水事件频率增加和小雨频率显著减少的两个重要原因。⑤ 主要与城市化影响相关的地面观测资料系统偏差,可以部分解释现有分析表明的短历时强降水事件频率和累计降水量增加现象,同时也很可能是城市台站小雨和痕量降水事件频率明显下降的另一重要原因。     

Rock associations and their spatial-Temporal variations of the early mesozoic igneous rocks in the NE Asia: Constraints on the initial subduction timing of the paleo-pacific plate北大核心CSCD

This paper summarizes rook associations and spatial-Temporal variations of the early Mesozoic igneous rocks in the NE Asia, with the aim of revealing the initial subduction timing of the Paleo-Pacific Plate beneath the Eurasia, and the relationships between the early Mesozoic magmatisms and the Paleo-Asian tectonic system, Mongol-Okhotsk tectonic system, and amalgamation of the Yangtze and North China cratons. Dating results indicate that the early Mesozoic magmatisms in the NE Asia can be subdivided into three stages, i.e., Early-Middle Triassic, Late Triassic, and Early Jurassic. The early Mesozoic calc-Alkaline magmatisms within the Erguna Massif reveal southward subduction of the Mongol-Okhotsk oceanic plate. The Triassic alkaline and bimodal magmatisms within the northern margin of the North China Craton indicate an extensional environment related to the final closure of the Paleo-Asian Ocean. The Late Triassic A-Type rhyo- lites and bimodal magmatisms, together with the Late Triassic stable sedimentary rocks, in eastern Heilongjiang-Jilin provinces, reveal an extensional environment and passive continental margin setting, whereas the Early Jurassic calc-Alkaline magmatisms and its compositional variations, together with the coeval accretionary complex, reveal the onset of the Paleo- Pacific plate beneath the Euirasian continent.     

Detachment folding in a Lower Cambrian–Upper Permian karst reservoir: 3D model of the Yubei 3D area (eastern Markit Slope,Tarim Basin,Northwest China)

A three-dimensional (3D) structural modeling of the Lower Cambrian–Upper Permian Yubei 3D area was performed to understand its structural evolution. This model reproduces the present-day structure of the basin and comprises 11 horizons within Lower Cambrian to Upper Permian rocks. The analysis is based on 3D depth views and faults. The results image salt movements due to tectonics and/or burial. From these observations, this paper deduces that salt structures are correlated to the main faults and tectonic events. From the model analysis, we interpret the timing and geometry of Tarim Basin tectonics. The fault geometry can be resolved based on the strike of the fault, the morphology of hanging wall strata, and the stratigraphic distribution. Emphasis is placed on gypsum rock detachment, considering its movements during the Middle Caledonian event and decoupling effects during tectonic evolution. Moreover, we point to the structural control of the Paleozoic basement and the crustal architecture (Yubei 3D Zone) on the geometry of the Tarim Basin.