腰椎管侧隐窝分型及影响侧隐窝狭窄症诊断的几个因素（附120例CTM分析）

作者对１２０例因下腰痛手术治疗在术前进行过ＣＴＭ检查的患者作了影像学及临床分析．按形态不同，侧隐窝可分为五种类型：（１）三角型，即整个椎管呈倒三角形，其侧隐窝完全开放；（２）猫耳型，因后关节和椎体后缘轻度增生，形成底宽顶尖的侧隐窝，整个椎管形如猫头，侧脸窝为猫耳，基本开放；（３）牛角型，因关节突向椎体方向过度增生使侧隐窝呈横向伸开的带状，中央椎管不窄，横断面形如牛头，侧阴窝为牛角，严重者侧隐窝可近于闭塞；（４）三叶草型，极度增生的关节突加上向后实入的椎体后缘使整个椎管呈三叶草状，侧隐窝和中央椎管均狭窄；（５）混合型，多为上述形状的混合或两侧侧隐窝发育不对称．前二型不易形成对神经的压迫，后三型易造成压迫．但即使最狭窄的侧隐窝也不一定产生症状，因为关键在于神经根和侧隐窝的宽度的相对关系．因此作者提出单纯依靠侧隐窝的宽度不能诊断侧隐窝狭窄症，而是要判断神经是否被侧隐窝压迫．因此ＣＴＭ在侧隐窝狭窄症的诊断中有突出意义．     

威海市杨家滩水源地地下水资源评价

本文分析了威海市杨家滩不源地第四系冲洪积－海相沉积物分规律和水文地质特征；在此基础上，应用有限单元方法进行了地下水量评价和预测水源地地下水位的变化趋势；提出了最优开采方案。     

雷达定量估测降水的亮带自动消除改进方法

层状云降水中,0 ℃层融化效应会引起雷达反射率因子局部增大,若不进行订正,则会高估雷达估测的降水.本文提出一种基于新一代天气雷达反射率因子垂直廓线的0 ℃层亮带自动识别与订正算法,以减小因亮带造成的降水高估.本研究首先对降水类型进行分类,在SHY95的基础上增加了垂直方向的反射率因子三维特征,避免亮带的反射率因子高值区被误识别为对流云区;其次,在层状云区识别出一个可能的亮带影响区,在其中查找亮带,采用旋转坐标系法精确的识别亮带的顶、底高度;最后,利用最小二乘法拟合亮带上、下层的斜率,平滑垂直廓线(VPR,Vertical Profile of Reflectivity)的显著突出部分.将该方法应用于北京地区2010—2011年10次包含亮带的降水过程,得到的亮带订正后的均方根误差E_RMS、平均绝对误差E_RMA、平均相对误差B_RM值较初值均有显著减小(分别减小1.538 mm,0.417和0.468).结果表明,该方法能够有效地识别与订正亮带,使得定量测量降水精度有所提高.     

Confidence Evaluation of Medium-and Long-Term Earthquake Prediction by Use of the Analytical Hierarchy Process

This paper offers an approach to the relative confidence level of medium- and long-term earthquake prediction methods by use of the analytical hierarchy process (AHP). We construct the criterion judgment matrices according to the results of an expert questionnaire known as the Delphi scheme. From the matrices we can obtain a scale for the relative preference or priority weight of each factor. The quantitative weights might be applied to make synthetic prediction of earthquake risk areas in the northern part of the North China seismic region.     

Is it possible to detect earlier ionospheric precursors before large earthquakes using principal component analysis (PCA)?

The goal of this study was to determine whether principal component analysis (PCA) can be used to process GPS ionospheric total electron content (TEC) data on a monthly basis to identify early earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. PCA is applied to GPS (mean value of a month) ionospheric TEC records collected from the Japan GEONET system to detect TEC anomalies associated with 10 earthquakes in Japan (M?≥?6.0) from 2006 to 2007. According to the results, PCA was able to discriminate clear TEC anomalies in the months when all 10 earthquakes occurred. After reviewing the months when no M?≥?6.0 earthquake occurred but the geomagnetic storm activity was present, it is possible that the maximal principal eigenvalues PCA returned for these 10 earthquakes indicate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies. Previously, PCA has been used to discriminate earthquake-associated TEC anomalies recognized by other researchers who found that a statistical association between large earthquakes and TEC anomalies could be established in the 5 days before earthquake nucleation and in 24 h before earthquake; however, since PCA uses the characteristics of principal eigenvalues to determine earthquake-related TEC anomalies, it is possible to show that such anomalies existed earlier than this 5-day statistical window. In this paper, this is shown through the application of PCA to one-dimensional TEC data relating to the earthquake of 17 February 2007 (M?=?6.0). The analysis is applied to daily TEC and reveals a large principal eigenvalue (representative of an earthquake-associated anomaly) for 02 February, 15 days before the 17 February earthquake.     

Multifractal modeling and spatial statistics

In general, the multifractal model provides more information about measurements on spatial objects than a fractal model. It also results in mathematical equations for the covariance function and semivariogram in spatial statistics which are determined primarily by the second-order mass exponent. However, these equations can be approximated by power-law relations which are comparable directly to equations based on fractal modeling. The multifractal approach is used to describe the underlying spatial structure of De Wijs 's example of zinc values from a sphalerite-bearing quartz vein near Pulacayo, Bolivia. It is shown that these data are multifractal instead of fractal, and that the second-order mass exponent (=0.979±0.011 for the example) can be used in spatial statistical analysis.     

北极航道开通对我国能源供求形势的影响

文章对我国能源供求现状进行概述,在此基础上根据《中国统计年鉴》中的数据,利用1990-2013年的能源需求总量时间序列构建ARIMA模型,进行相关拟合与检验,并运用此模型对2016-2018年的能源需求量进行预测,揭示我国面临的能源供求形势。结果表明,未来我国能源需求量将持续增长,在能源供给相对不足的情况下需依赖大量进口,而进口能源的稳定供应又受到各种威胁制约。在此背景下讨论北极航道开通为我国能源供应带来的机遇,以及对缓和我国能源供求形势产生的影响,进而提出相关政策建议。     

The Impact of Mid- and High-Latitude Rossby Wave Activities on the Medium-Range Evolution of the EAP Pattern During the Pre-Rainy Period of South China

Based on the NCEP DOE AMIP II daily reanalysis data (1979{2005), the evolution of the East Asia/Pacific(EAP) teleconnection pattern during the pre-rainy period of South China is studied on the medium-range time scale. It is found that positive and negative EAP patterns share a similar generation process. In the middle and upper troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanating from the northeast Atlantic or Europe propagate toward East Asia along the Eurasian continent waveguide and finally give rise to the three anomaly centers of the EAP pattern over East Asia. Among the three anomaly centers, the western Pacific subtropical center appears the latest. Rossby wave packets propagate from the high latitude anomaly center toward the mid-latitude and the subtropical ones. The enhancement and maintenance of the subtropical anomaly center is closely associated with the subtropical jet waveguide and the incoming Rossby wave packets from the upstream. In the lower troposphere, Rossby wave packets emanate from the subtropical Asia toward East Asia. Positive and negative EAP patterns could not be regarded as "mirrors" to each other with simply re- versed phase. For the positive pattern, the positive height anomaly center around the Scandinavia Peninsula keeps its strength and position during the mature period, and the Rossby wave packets thus propagate persistently toward East Asia, facilitating a longer mature time of the positive pattern. As for the formation of the negative EAP pattern, however, the incoming Rossby wave energy from the upstream contributes to both the enhancement and southeastward movement of the negative anomaly belt from the Yenisei River to the Bering Strait and the positive anomaly center around Mongolia. At the peak time, the two anomlous circulations are evolved into the Northeast Asia and the mid-latitude anomaly centers of the negative pattern, respectively. The energy dispersion of Rossby wave packets is relatively fast due to the predominant zonal circulation in the extratropics, causing a shorter mature period of the negative pattern. During the pre-rainy period of South China, the prevalence of the EAP pattern signiˉcantly affects the rainfall over the region south of the Yangtze River. The positive (negative) EAP pattern tends to causepositive (negative) precipitation anomalies in that region. This is di?erent from the earlier research findingsbased on monthly mean data.     

绿藻水溶性多糖的研究概况和进展

对近年来绿藻多糖的提纯方法、组成结构及应用的研究进展进行了综述。绿藻多糖的提纯需要经过样品的前处理、提取和精制三个步骤,提取方法包括酸提、酶提、加入钙螯合剂提取、微波及超声波辅助提取。绿藻多糖是水溶性的硫酸化杂多糖。从石莼(Ulva)、浒苔(Enteromorpha)、礁膜(Monostroma)、小球藻(Chlorella)、蕨菜(Bracken)及刚毛藻(Bristles)中提取的多糖的化学组成及结构特征各不相同,而且多糖的化学组成和结构特征受提取方式的影响。绿藻多糖的生物相容性、生物可降解性及抗氧化、抗肿瘤、抗凝血、抗炎、免疫调节等多种生物活性使其在食品、医药、化妆品及农业中具有广泛的应用。有关绿藻多糖的精确结构、提纯方法及化学修饰的进一步研究将使绿藻多糖的应用更加广泛。