High-Nb hawaiite–mugearite and high-Mg calc-alkaline lavas from northeastern Iran: Oligo-Miocene melts from modified mantle wedge

Tertiary volcanic rocks in northwestern Firoozeh, Iran (the Meshkan triangular structural unit), constitute vast outcrops (up to 250 km²) of high-Mg basaltic andesites to dacites that are associated with high-Nb hawaiites and mugearites. Whole-rock ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar ages show a restricted range of 24.1 ± 0.4–22.9 ± 0.5 Ma for the volcanic rocks. The initial ratios of ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr and ¹⁴³Nd/¹⁴⁴Nd vary from 0.703800 to 0.704256 and 0.512681 to 0.512877, respectively, in the high-Mg basaltic andesites–dacites. High-Th contents (up to 11 ppm) and Sr/Y values (27–100) and the isotopic composition of the subalkaline high-Mg basaltic andesites–dacites indicate derivation from a mantle modified by slab and sediment partial melts. Evidence such as reverse zoning and resorbed textures and high Ni and Cr contents in the evolved samples indicate that magma mixing with mafic melts and concurrent fractional crystallization lead to the compositional evolution of this series. The high-Nb hawaiites and mugearites, by contrast, have a sodic alkaline affinity and are silica undersaturated; they are also enriched in Nb (up to 47 ppm) and a wide range of incompatible trace elements, including LILE, LREE, and HFSE. Geochemistry and Sr–Nd isotopic compositions of the high-Nb hawaiites and mugearites suggest derivation from a mantle source affected by lower degrees of slab melts. Post-orogenic slab break-off is suggested to have prompted the asthenospheric upwelling that triggered partial melting in mantle metasomatized by slab-derived melts.     

A simple model of drainage flow in a valley

A model of the drainage flow in a valley under calm conditions has been developed on the basis of the conservation laws of mass, momentum, and heat. The inflow of mass and heat from side-slopes is incorporated, and the momentum and sensible heat exchanges between valley drainage flow and valley floor are parameterized.The characteristic velocity of valley drainage flow is expressed in terms of the following parameters: three potential temperature differences representing the temperature field in the valey; topographic parameters of the valley; mean bulk coefficients representing the aerodynamic conditions of the valley floor; and the stability of the ambient atmosphere. The characteristic thickness includes additional parameters of side-slope flow.That the model satisfactorily predicts the characteristic thickness and velocity is shown from comparison with observations from valleys several hundred meters to a few hundred kilometers long.     

Comparative assessment of Japan's long-term carbon budget under different effort-sharing principles

This article assesses Japan's carbon budgets up to 2100 in the global efforts to achieve the 2?°C target under different effort-sharing approaches based on long-term GHG mitigation scenarios published in 13 studies. The article also presents exemplary emission trajectories for Japan to stay within the calculated budget.

The literature data allow for an in-depth analysis of four effort-sharing categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, the remaining carbon budgets for 2014–2100 were negative for the effort-sharing category that emphasizes historical responsibility and capability. For the other three, including the reference ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, which showed the highest budget range among all categories, the calculated remaining budgets (20th and 80th percentile ranges) would run out in 21–29 years if the current emission levels were to continue. A 550?ppm CO₂e stabilization level increases the budgets by 6–17 years-equivalent of the current emissions, depending on the effort-sharing category. Exemplary emissions trajectories staying within the calculated budgets were also analysed for ‘Equality’, ‘Staged’ and ‘Cost-effectiveness’ categories. For a 450?ppm CO₂e stabilization level, Japan's GHG emissions would need to phase out sometime between 2045 and 2080, and the emission reductions in 2030 would be at least 16–29% below 1990 levels even for the most lenient ‘Cost-effectiveness’ category, and 29–36% for the ‘Equality’ category. The start year for accelerated emissions reductions and the emissions convergence level in the long term have major impact on the emissions reduction rates that need to be achieved, particularly in the case of smaller budgets.

Policy relevance

In previous climate mitigation target formulation processes for 2020 and 2030 in Japan, neither equity principles nor long-term management of cumulative GHG emissions was at the centre of discussion. This article quantitatively assesses how much more GHGs Japan can emit by 2100 to achieve the 2?°C target in light of different effort-sharing approaches, and how Japan's GHG emissions can be managed up to 2100. The long-term implications of recent energy policy developments following the Fukushima nuclear disaster for the calculated carbon budgets are also discussed.     

A multi-proxy reconstruction of spatial and temporal variations in Asian summer temperatures over the last millennium

To investigate climate variability in Asia during the last millennium, the spatial and temporal evolution of summer (June–July–August; JJA) temperature in eastern and south-central Asia is reconstructed using multi-proxy records and the regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) algorithm with truncated total least squares (TTLS), under a point-by-point regression (PPR) framework. The temperature index reconstructions show that the late 20th century was the warmest period in Asia over the past millennium. The temperature field reconstructions illustrate that temperatures in central, eastern, and southern China during the 11th and 13th centuries, and in western Asia during the 12th century, were significantly higher than those in other regions, and comparable to levels in the 20th century. Except for the most recent warming, all identified warm events showed distinct regional expressions and none were uniform over the entire reconstruction area. The main finding of the study is that spatial temperature patterns have, on centennial time-scales, varied greatly over the last millennium. Moreover, seven climate model simulations, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), over the same region of Asia, are all consistent with the temperature index reconstruction at the 99 % confidence level. Only spatial temperature patterns extracted as the first empirical orthogonal function (EOF) from the GISS-E2-R and MPI-ESM-P model simulations are significant and consistent with the temperature field reconstruction over the past millennium in Asia at the 90 % confidence level. This indicates that both the reconstruction and the simulations depict the temporal climate variability well over the past millennium. However, the spatial simulation or reconstruction capability of climate variability over the past millennium could be still limited. For reconstruction, some grid points do not pass validation tests and reveal the need for more proxies with high temporal resolution, accurate dating, and sensitive temperature signals, especially in central Asia and before AD 1400.     

Melt inclusion analysis of the Unzen 1991–1995 dacite: implications for crystallization processes of dacite magma

Dacitic magma, a mixture of high-temperature (T) aphyric magma and low-T crystal-rich magma, was erupted during the 1991–1995 Mount Unzen eruptive cycle. Here, the crystallization processes of the low-T magma were examined on the basis of melt inclusion analysis and phase relationships. Variation in water content of the melt inclusions (5.1–7.2 wt% H₂O) reflected the degassing history of the low-T magma ascending from deeper levels (250 MPa) to a shallow magma chamber (140 MPa). The ascent rate of the low-T magma decreased markedly towards the emplacement level as crystal content increased. Cooling of magma as well as degassing-induced undercooling drove crystallization. With the decreasing ascent rate, degassing-induced undercooling decreased in importance, and cooling became more instrumental in crystallization, causing local and rapid crystallization along the margin of the magma body. Some crystals contain scores of melt inclusions, whereas there are some crystals without any inclusions. This heterogeneous distribution suggests the variation in the crystallization rate within the magma body; it also suggests that cooling was dominant cause for melt entrapment. Numerical calculations of the cooling magma body suggest that cooling caused rapid crystal growth and enhanced melt entrapment once the magma became a crystal-rich mush with evolved interstitial melt. The rhyolitic composition of melt inclusions is consistent with this model.Editorial responsibility: H Shinohara     

Internal differentiation of Kutsugata lava flow from Rishiri Volcano,Japan: Processes and timescales of segregation structures' formation

Internal differentiation processes in a solidifying lava flow were investigated for the Kutsugata lava flow from Rishiri Volcano in northern Japan. In a representative 6-m thick lava flow that was investigated in detail in this study, segregation products darker than the host lavas manifested mainly in the form of pipes (vesicle cylinders) and layers (vesicle sheets), occurring around 0.5–2.3 m and 2.0–4.0 m above the base, respectively. Both the cylinders and sheets are significantly richer in incompatible elements such as TiO₂ and K₂O than the host lavas, which suggest that these products essentially represent residual melt produced during solidification of the lava flow. Field observation and the geochemical features of the lavas suggest that the vesicle cylinders grew upward from near the base of the flow by continuous feeding of residual melt from the neighboring host lavas to the heads of the cylinders. On the other hand, the vesicle sheets were produced in situ in the solidifying lava flow as fracture veins caused by horizontal compression. The vesicle cylinders have a remarkably higher MgO content (up to 8 wt.%) than the host lava (< 6 wt.%), whereas the vesicle sheets display MgO depletion (as low as 3.5 wt.%). The relatively high MgO content of the vesicle cylinders cannot be explained solely by the mechanical mixing of olivine phenocrysts with the residual melt. It is suggested that the vesicle cylinders were produced by the extraction of olivine-bearing interstitial melt from an augite-plagioclase network in the host lava, whereas the vesicle sheets were formed by the migration of the residual melt from a crystal network consisting of plagioclase, augite, and olivine in the host lava into platy fractures. We infer that this selective crystal fractionation for forming the vesicle cylinders resulted from processes in which abundant vesicles rejected from the upward-migrating floor solidification front prevented olivine crystals from being incorporated into the crystal network in the host lava. The vesicle cylinders are considered to have formed in ∼ 1 day after the lava flow came to rest, while relatively large vesicle sheets (> 1 cm thick) appeared much later (after ∼ 9 days). The formation of these segregation products was essentially complete within 20 days after the lava emplacement.     

Reducing global GHG emissions by replicating successful sector examples: the ‘good practice policies’ scenario

This article shows the potential impact on global GHG emissions in 2030, if all countries were to implement sectoral climate policies similar to successful examples already implemented elsewhere. This assessment was represented in the IMAGE and GLOBIOM/G4M models by replicating the impact of successful national policies at the sector level in all world regions. The first step was to select successful policies in nine policy areas. In the second step, the impact on the energy and land-use systems or GHG emissions was identified and translated into model parameters, assuming that it would be possible to translate the impacts of the policies to other countries. As a result, projected annual GHG emission levels would be about 50 GtCO₂e by 2030 (2% above 2010 levels), compared to the 60 GtCO₂e in the ‘current policies’ scenario. Most reductions are achieved in the electricity sector through expanding renewable energy, followed by the reduction of fluorinated gases, reducing venting and flaring in oil and gas production, and improving industry efficiency. Materializing the calculated mitigation potential might not be as straightforward given different country priorities, policy preferences and circumstances.

Key policy insights

• Considerable emissions reductions globally would be possible, if a selection of successful policies were replicated and implemented in all countries worldwide.

• This would significantly reduce, but not close, the emissions gap with a 2°C pathway.

• From the selection of successful policies evaluated in this study, those implemented in the sector ‘electricity supply’ have the highest impact on global emissions compared to the ‘current policies’ scenario.

• Replicating the impact of these policies worldwide could lead to emission and energy trends in the renewable electricity, passenger transport, industry (including fluorinated gases) and buildings sector, that are close to those in a 2°C scenario.

• Using successful policies and translating these to policy impact per sector is a more reality-based alternative to most mitigation pathways, which need to make theoretical assumptions on policy cost-effectiveness.

     

Metamorphic condition of a regional metamorphic complex in the Omuta district in northern Kyushu,southwest Japan

A high‐temperature (T) metamorphic complex occurs in the Omuta district, northern Kyushu, Japan. Three metamorphic zones are defined based on pelitic mineral assemblage, i.e. chlorite–biotite zone, muscovite–andalusite zone and sillimanite–K‐feldspar zone with ascending metamorphic grade from north to south. Two isograds trend approximately east–west, which is oblique to the boundary between the metamorphic complex and the Tamana Granodiorite located on the southeast. The metamorphic condition of two pelitic rocks that occur in the muscovite–andalusite zone and sillimanite–K‐feldspar zone are estimated as 510 ±30 °C, 300 ±60 MPa and 720 ±30 °C, 620 ±60 MPa, respectively. Thermodynamic consideration reveals that use of the same geothermobarometer enables precise determination of the difference in pressure between the samples as 320 ±10 MPa. This indicates that the pelitic samples were metamorphosed at different depth by 11–12 km that is significantly larger than the geographic distance of 6.8 km between the sample localities. This also suggests that crustal thinning took place after the high‐T metamorphism. The high‐T metamorphic complex is, therefore, not of static contact metamorphism but of dynamic regional metamorphism. The present result combined with petrological and chronological similarities implies that this complex suffered the regional Ryoke metamorphism.     

Impacts of Indian Ocean SST biases on the Indian Monsoon: as simulated in a global coupled model

In this study, the impact of the ocean–atmosphere coupling on the atmospheric mean state over the Indian Ocean and the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) is examined in the framework of the SINTEX-F2 coupled model through forced and coupled control simulations and several sensitivity coupled experiments. During boreal winter and spring, most of the Indian Ocean biases are common in forced and coupled simulations, suggesting that the errors originate from the atmospheric model, especially a dry islands bias in the Maritime Continent. During boreal summer, the air-sea coupling decreases the ISM rainfall over South India and the monsoon strength to realistic amplitude, but at the expense of important degradations of the rainfall and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) mean states in the Indian Ocean. Strong SST biases of opposite sign are observed over the western (WIO) and eastern (EIO) tropical Indian Ocean. Rainfall amounts over the ocean (land) are systematically higher (lower) in the northern hemisphere and the south equatorial Indian Ocean rainfall band is missing in the control coupled simulation. During boreal fall, positive dipole-like errors emerge in the mean state of the coupled model, with warm and wet (cold and dry) biases in the WIO (EIO), suggesting again a significant impact of the SST errors. The exact contributions and the distinct roles of these SST errors in the seasonal mean atmospheric state of the coupled model have been further assessed with two sensitivity coupled experiments, in which the SST biases are replaced by observed climatology either in the WIO (warm bias) or EIO (cold bias). The correction of the WIO warm bias leads to a global decrease of rainfall in the monsoon region, which confirms that the WIO is an important source of moisture for the ISM. On the other hand, the correction of the EIO cold bias leads to a global improvement of precipitation and circulation mean state during summer and fall. Nevertheless, all these improvements due to SST corrections seem drastically limited by the atmosphere intrinsic biases, including prominently the unimodal oceanic position of the ITCZ (Inter Tropical Convergence Zone) during summer and the enhanced westward wind stress along the equator during fall.