A structured analysis of uncertainty surrounding modeled impacts of groundwater-extraction rules

Integrating economic and groundwater models for groundwater-management can help improve understanding of trade-offs involved between conflicting socioeconomic and biophysical objectives. However, there is significant uncertainty in most strategic decision-making situations, including in the models constructed to represent them. If not addressed, this uncertainty may be used to challenge the legitimacy of the models and decisions made using them. In this context, a preliminary uncertainty analysis was conducted of a dynamic coupled economic-groundwater model aimed at assessing groundwater extraction rules. The analysis demonstrates how a variety of uncertainties in such a model can be addressed. A number of methods are used including propagation of scenarios and bounds on parameters, multiple models, block bootstrap time-series sampling and robust linear regression for model calibration. These methods are described within the context of a theoretical uncertainty management framework, using a set of fundamental uncertainty management tasks and an uncertainty typology.     

Mesozoic deltaic system along the western margin of the Indian plate: lithofacies and depositional setting of Datta Formation,North Pakistan

Over 1 km thick Mesozoic sedimentary sequence is exposed over a wide area in the Upper Indus basin of north Pakistan along the western margin of the Indian Plate. The Mesozoic sequence is comprised of clastic facies in the lower part, while carbonate facies are dominant in the upper part. About 200 m thick mixed sequence of interbedded sandstone, siltstone, clay, and carbonaceous shale represents the lower Jurassic Datta Formation in the Salt and Trans Indus Ranges in North Pakistan. The Datta Formation constitutes important reservoir horizons in a number of oil fields in the western Himalayan foreland basins where it is encountered at a depth of about 4 km in various wells. The Datta Formation is described from different parts of the range front to understand the internal architecture of various sedimentary facies and their depositional system. The thickness and lithofacies assemblages of the Datta Formation change in different parts of the range front as well as in subsurface of the Upper Indus basin. The Datta Formation represents a coarsening upward deltaic sequence in most parts of the basin. On the basis of lithological variations and sedimentary structures, a number of depositional facies have been recognized which include channel belt facies, floodplain/abandoned channel facies, swamp facies, and lagoonal facies. Further north, in the Kalachitta and Hazara regions, the siliciclastic facies change to more complex assemblages of interbedded bauxite, silcrete, marl, and some limestone. These sediments represent deposition in a delta-plain setting of a fluvial-dominated delta with northwestward flowing channels.