近20年华北地电阻率异常空间演化及强震短期前兆判别标志研究

开展了华北地电阻率异常参数提取的研究，以1980—2001年的异常参数为输入进行了全时空扫描，并对其动态图像演化做全面分析，由此提取出华北地区5级以上地震的地电阻率短期前兆的判别标志。为了进行初步检验，本文依上述判别标志对华北近年地电阻率动态图像做了对比分析。     

A study on the focal parameters of Shidian M =5.9 earthquake sequences in 2001

On the basis of about 300 earthquake wave forms observed in the Shidian M _S=5.9 sequences on April 12, 2001 recorded in Kunming Digital Seismic Network, the spectra of shear wave have been used to estimate the focal parameters of these earthquake sequences. The results show that within the magnitude range of 1.5–5.3, the seismic moments are 10¹⁰–10¹⁶ N·m, the corner frequencies are 0.2–0.8 Hz, radii of the focal rupture are 200–2 500 m and the stress drops are 0.1×10⁵–20×10⁵Pa. Through the statistical analyses of variation of corner frequency f _c and stress drop Δσ with time, it is discovered that the average corner frequency of the foreshock sequences is obviously lower than that of the aftershock sequences. Contrarily, the average stress drops Δσ of the foreshock sequences are clearly higher than that of the aftershocks. It is considered that these variation characteristics of average corner frequency and stress drops before and after the main shock have index significance to the precursory information before a strong earthquake. The higher stress drops for the foreshock sequences show that the higher shear stresses have been stored in the area of main shock. After the main shock, most of the stresses have been released, so the aftershock sequences show a rupture process of lower stresses. Foundation item: Scientific and Technological Key Project of Yunnan Province (2001NG46)     

采空区二维超声波物理模型实验研究

由于对资源矿产的过度开采使得矿山地区(尤其是煤矿)出现了采空区,从而引起地表塌陷等地质灾害。为了深入了解地震方法在采空区调查中的应用效果,从超声波物理模型实验研究出发,论述了物理模型的原理和制作,研究了采空区的地震波场特征,并利用W inse is软件对所采集的二维超声波实验数据进行了处理。由叠偏剖面推断的采空区的位置与实际模型相符,从而验证了超声波采空区物理模型试验是有效的、可信的;同时可以为实际探测采空区提供进一步的理论依据。     

Fractionation mechanism of stable isotope in evaporating water body

Under Rayleigh equilibrium condition, stable isotopic ratio in residual water increases with the decrease of the residual water proportion f exponentially, and the fractionation rate of stable isotopes is inversely proportional to temperature. However, under kinetic evaporation condition, the fractionation of stable isotopes is not only related to the phase temperature but also influenced by the atmospheric humidity and the mass exchange between liquid and vapor phases. The ratio δ in residual water will not change with f after undergoing evaporation of a long time for great relative humidity. The rate that the evaporating water body reaches isotopic steady state is mainly dependent on the relative humidity in atmosphere. The analysis shows that the actual mean linear variety rates, about -30.0, of the δ18O in residual water versus the residual water proportion at Nagqu and Amdo stations are consistent with the simulated process under temperature of 20 oC and relative humidity of 50%. The distillation line simulated under Rayleigh equilibrium condition is analogous to the global meteoric water line (MWL) as the temperature is about 20 oC. Under non-equilibrium condition, the slope and constant values of distillation line are directly proportional to temperature and relative humidity. According to the basic data, the simulated distillation line is very consistent with the actual distillation line of Qinghai Lake.     

Migrating pingos in the permafrost region of the Tibetan Plateau, China and their hazard along the Golmud–Lhasa railway

Most pingos in the permafrost region of the high northern Tibetan Plateau form along active fault zones and many change position annually along the zones and thus appear to migrate. The fault zones conduct geothermal heat, which thins permafrost, and control cool to hot springs in the region. They maintain ground-water circulation through broken rock in an open system to supply water for pingo growth during the winter in overlying fluvial and lacustrian deposits. Springs remain after the pingos thaw in the summer. Fault movement, earthquakes and man's activities cause the water pathways supplying pingos to shift and consequently the pingos migrate.

The hazard posed to the new Golmud–Lhasa railway across the plateau by migrating pingos is restricted to active fault zones, but is serious, as these zones are common and generate large earthquakes. Pingos have damaged the highway and the oil pipeline adjacent to the railway since 2001. One caused tilting and breaking of a bridge pier and destroyed a highway bridge across the Chumaerhe fault. Another has already caused minor damage to a new railway bridge. Furthermore, the construction of a bridge pier in the North Wuli fault zone in July–August 2003 created a conduit for a new spring, which created a pingo during the following winter. Measures taken to drain the ground-water via a tunnel worked well and prevented damage before the railway tracks were laid. However, pier vibrations from subsequent train motion disrupted the drain and led to new springs, which may induce further pingo growth beneath the bridge.

The migrating pingos result from active fault movement promoting artesian ground-water circulation and changing water pathways under the seasonal temperature variations in the permafrost region. They pose a serious hazard to railway construction, which, in turn can further disturb the ground-water conduits and affect pingo migration.     

Pristine and reacted surfaces of pyrrhotite and arsenopyrite as studied by X-ray absorption near-edge structure spectroscopy

Fe L-, S L-, and O K-edge X-ray absorption spectra of natural monoclinic and hexagonal pyrrhotites, Fe_1-xS, and arsenopyrite, FeAsS, have been measured and compared with the spectra of minerals oxidized in air and treated in aqueous acidic solutions, as well as with the previous XPS studies. The Fe L-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) of vacuum-cleaved pyrrhotites showed the presence of, aside from high-spin Fe²⁺, small quantity of Fe³⁺, which was higher for a monoclinic mineral. The spectra of the essentially metal-depleted surfaces produced by the non-oxidative and oxidative acidic leaching of pyrrhotites exhibit substantially enhanced contributions of Fe³⁺ and a form of high-spin Fe²⁺ with the energy of the 3d orbitals increased by 0.3–0.8 eV; low-spin Fe²⁺ was not confidently distinguished, owing probably to its rapid oxidation. The changes in the S L-edge spectra reflect the emergence of Fe³⁺ and reduced density of S s–Fe 4s antibonding states. The Fe L-edge XANES of arsenopyrite shows almost unsplit e_g band of singlet Fe²⁺ along with minor contributions attributable to high-spin Fe²⁺ and Fe³⁺. Iron retains the low-spin state in the sulphur-excessive layer formed by the oxidative leaching in 0.4 M ferric chloride and ferric sulphate acidic solutions. The S L-edge XANES of arsenopyrite leached in the ferric chloride, but not ferric sulphate, solution has considerably decreased pre-edge maxima, indicating the lesser admixture of S s states to Fe 3d orbitals in the reacted surface layer. The ferric nitrate treatment produces Fe³⁺ species and sulphur in oxidation state between +2 and +4.     

Analytical modeling on consolidation of stiffened deep mixed column-reinforced soft soil under embankment

Stiffened deep mixed (SDM) column is a new ground improvement technique to improve soft soil, which can be used to increase bearing capacity, reduce deformation, and enhance stability of soft soil. This technique has been successfully adopted to support the highway and railway embankments over soft soils in China and other countries. However, there have been limited investigations on its consolidation under embankment loading. This paper developed an analytical solution for the consolidation of embankment over soft soil with SDM column in which core pile is equal to or shorter than outer DM column. The consolidation problem was simplified as a consolidation of composite soil considering the load shear effect of core pile. The developed solution was verified by a comparison with the results computed by three-dimensional (3-D) finite element analysis. A parametric study based on the derived solution was conducted to investigate influence factors—length of core pile, diameter of core pile, diameter of SDM column, modulus of DM column, and permeability coefficient of DM column—on the consolidation behavior of SDM column-supported embankment over soft soil. The developed solution was applied to a case history of SDM column-supported embankment, and a good agreement was found between the predictions and the field measurements.     

Efficient estimation of flood forecast prediction intervals via single‐ and multi‐objective versions of the LUBE method

Prediction intervals (PIs) are commonly used to quantify the accuracy and precision of a forecast. However, traditional ways to construct PIs typically require strong assumptions about data distribution and involve a large computational burden. Here, we improve upon the recent proposed Lower Upper Bound Estimation method and extend it to a multi‐objective framework. The proposed methods are demonstrated using a real‐world flood forecasting case study for the upper Yangtze River Watershed. Results indicate that the proposed methods are able to efficiently construct appropriate PIs, while outperforming other methods including the widely used Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation approach. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.