多变量时间序列滑动窗口异常点的检测

针对多变量时间序列(MTS)的异常点的探测问题,提出了采用由粗到细的二次探测方案.基于滑动窗口数据的置信区间,构造了变化趋势值特征和相对变化趋势值特征分别用于二次探测,同时研究了特征的快速提取算法.通过对OPEN3000数据监测系统采集的事故发生前后某市城南变电站各设备表的数据集进行异常点探测,结果表明提出的算法能够快速准确地探测出异常点的位置.     

Evaluation of Heavy Rainfall Model Forecasts over the Korean Peninsula Using Different Physical Parameterization Schemes and Horizontal Resolution

In this study, the accuracy of a Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model (PSU/NCAR MM5) for predicting heavy summer precipitation over the Korean Peninsula was investigated. A total of 1800 simulations were performed using this model for 30 heavy rainfall events employing four cumulus parameterization schemes (CPS), two grid-scale resolvable precipitation schemes (GRS), and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes in three model resolutions (90 km, 30 km, and 10 km). The heavy rainfall events were mesoscale convective systems developed under the influence of mid-latitude baroclinic systems with low-level moisture transport from the ocean. The predictive accuracy for maximum rainfall was approximately 80% for 10-km resolution and was 60% for 30-km resolution. The predictive accuracy for rainfall position extended to ～150 km from the observed position for both resolutions. Simulated rainfall was most sensitive to CPS, then to PBL schemes, and then to GRS. In general, the Grell (GR) scheme and the Anthes and Kuo (AK) scheme showed a better prediction capability for heavy rainfall than did the Betts-Miller (BM) scheme and the Kain-Fritsch (KF) scheme. The GR scheme also performed well in the 24-h and 12-h precipitation predictions: the parameterized convective rainfall in GR is directly related to synoptic-scale forcing. The models without CPS performed better for rainfall amounts but worse for rainfall position than those with CPS. The MM5 model demonstrated substantial predictive capacity using synoptic-scale initial conditions and lateral boundary data because heavy summer rainfall in Korea occurs in a strong synoptic-scale environment.     

An Examination of ENSO’s Effect on the Monthly and Seasonal Climate of Hong Kong from a Statistical Perspective

This study aims to examine the effect of El Nino and La Nina on the monthly and seasonal climate of Hong Kong against the ENSO-neutral situation from a statistical perspective. Monthly and seasonal temperature and rainfall of Hong Kong and monthly number of tropical cyclones (TCs) coming within 500 km of the city over the 59-yr (1950-2008) period are examined under three ENSO situations, namely El Nino, La Nina, and ENSO-neutral. It is found that, compared with the ENSO-neutral situation, El Nino tends...     

Effect of implementing ecosystem functional type data in a mesoscale climate model

In this paper, we introduce a new concept of land-surface state representation for southern South America, which is based on "functional" attributes of vegetation, and implement a new land-cover (Ecosystem Functional Type, hereafter EFT) dataset in the Weather and Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We found that the EFT data enabled us to deal with functional attributes of vegetation and time-variant features more easily than the default land-cover data in the WRF. In order to explore the usefulness of the EFT data in simulations of surface and atmospheric variables, numerical simulations of the WRF model, using both the US Geological Survey (USGS) and the EFT data, were conducted over the La Plata Basin in South America for the austral spring of 1998 and compared with observations. Results showed that the model simulations were sensitive to the lower boundary conditions and that the use of the EFT data improved the climate simulation of 2-m temperature and precipitation, implying the need for this type of information to be included in numerical climate models.     

低温热年代学数据对龙门山推覆构造带南段新生代构造活动的约束

龙门山位于青藏高原东边缘,地形陡变,剥蚀作用强烈.近年来先后经历了2008年汶川MW7.9地震和2013年芦山MS7.0地震,多位学者对龙门山地区做了大量的低温热年代学研究.文中在研究程度相对薄弱的龙门山南段补充了4个锆石裂变径迹年龄和4个磷灰石裂变径迹年龄,结合前人的低温热年代学数据结果得出,宝兴杂岩从新生代早期开始快速冷却,降温幅度超过225℃,而龙门山中段的彭灌杂岩降温幅度为185 ～225℃.宝兴杂岩的4个裂变径迹年龄分布在2.7 ～5Ma,相对彭灌杂岩较年轻,表明晚新生代以来宝兴杂岩的冷却速率要高于彭灌杂岩.在地表温度为15℃和古地温梯度为30℃/km的假设下,宝兴杂岩距今3～5Ma以来的平均剥露速率为0.63 ～ 1.17mm/a.低温热年代学数据揭示出龙门山中段的差异剥蚀集中在北川-映秀断裂和江油-灌县断裂上,而南段的差异剥蚀分散在更宽范围内的双石-大川断裂(南、北2个分支)及其东侧的断层和褶皱.     

Determination of probability distributions for Strahler stream lengths based on Poisson process and DEM

Abstract

One of the basic tasks in geomorphologic analysis is to know the probability distributions of the stream lengths of different orders. In practical applications, this information is useful for basin rainfall-runoff modelling. The objective of this study is to determine the length distributions of the Strahler streams. A Poisson process was used to derive the theoretical distributions. The result showed that the length distribution of the first-order stream is an exponential distribution and the second-order or higher order stream length is a gamma distribution. In order to verify the theoretical distributions, a digital elevation model (DEM) was adopted to calculate the stream lengths of four basins in Taiwan. Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square tests were used to test the goodness-of-fit of the data. Results showed that the length distributions of the first- and second-order streams analysed by using DEM correspond with those from the derived distribution method.     

On applying viewshed analysis for determining least-cost paths on Digital Elevation Models

The concept of computing least-cost paths has been proposed and discussed for a few decades but only in simplified form due to the limited computational resources in the past. With the advancement of computer technology in speed and data storage, it is now possible to implement least-cost path algorithms with realistic conditions. In this paper, we present our implementations of least-cost paths by integrating viewshed information computed from digital elevation models. Our implementations and analyses include four possible types of paths. They are scenic paths, strategic paths, hidden paths, and withdrawn paths. While possible applications of these least-cost paths include planning of civil engineering, military and environmental planning, other extensions can be formulated without much difficulty.