Great Powers and Geopolitical Change

Abstract

Most traditional segregation measures, such as the index of dissimilarity D, fail to distinguish spatial patterns effectively. Previously proposed spatial measures modifying D suffer from several shortcomings. This article describes a general spatial segregation index based upon the concept of composite population counts, which are derived from grouping people in neighboring areas together to account implicitly for spatial interaction of groups across unit boundaries. The suggested spatial index can overcome the disadvantages of previous indices and can assess the spatial extent of the segregated clusters. The results offer a more comprehensive depiction of spatial segregation of a region.

     

Extending the Capture Map Concept to Estimate Discrete and Risk-Based Streamflow Depletion Potential

A popular and contemporary use of numerical groundwater models is to estimate the discrete relation between groundwater extraction and surface-water/groundwater exchange. Previously, the concept of a “capture map” has been put forward as a means to effectively summarize this relation for decision-making consumption. While capture maps have enjoyed success in the environmental simulation industry, they are deterministic, ignoring uncertainty in the underlying model. Furthermore, capture maps are not typically calculated in a manner that facilitates analysis of varying combinations of extraction locations and/or reaches. That is, they are typically constructed with focus on a single reach or group of reaches. The former of these limitations is important for conveying risk to decision makers and stakeholders, while the latter is important for decision-making support related to surface-water management, where future foci may include reaches that were not the focus of the original capture analysis. Herein, we use the concept of a response matrix to generalize the theory of the capture-map approach to estimate spatially discrete streamflow depletion potential. We also use first-order, second-moment uncertainty estimation techniques with the concept of “risk shifting” to place capture maps and streamflow depletion potential in a stochastic, risk-based framework. Our approach is demonstrated for an integrated groundwater/surface-water model of the lower San Antonio River, Texas, USA.     

Quaternary palaeoecology and nature conservation: a general review with examples from the neotropics

Palaeoecology, as an ecological discipline, is able to provide relevant inputs for conservation science and ecosystem management, especially for issues involving long-term processes, such as ecological succession, migration, adaptation, microevolution, and extinction. This use of palaeoecology has been noted for several decades, and it has become widely accepted, especially in the frame of ongoing and near-future global warming and its potential biotic consequences. Selected palaeoecological insights of interest for conservation include the following: 1) species respond in an individualistic manner to environmental changes that lead to changes in community composition, suggesting that future ecosystems would have no modern analogues; 2) in the short-term, acclimation is more likely a response of species that are expected to persist in the face of global warming, but the possibility of evolutionary change linked to the existence of pre-adapted genomes cannot be dismissed; 3) species unable to acclimate or adapt to new conditions should migrate or become extinct, which has been observed in past records; 4) current extinction estimates for the near-future should be revised in light of palaeoecological information, which shows that spatial reorganisations and persistence in suitable microrefugia have been more common than extinction during the Quaternary; 5) biotic responses to environmental changes do not necessarily follow the rules of equilibrium dynamics but depend on complex and non-linear processes that lead to unexpected “surprises”, which are favoured by the occurrence of thresholds and amplifying positive feedbacks; 6) threshold responses can cause the movement of ecosystems among several potentially stable states depending on their resilience, or the persistence of transient states; 7) species and their communities have responded to environmental changes in a heterogeneous fashion according to the local and regional features, which is crucial for present and future management policies; 8) the global warming that occurred at the end of the Younger Drays cold reversal (ca 13.0 to 11.5 cal kyr BP) took place at similar rates and magnitudes compared to the global warming projected for the 21st century, thus becoming a powerful past analogue for prediction modelling; 9) environmental changes have acted upon ecosystems in an indirect way by modifying human behaviour and activities that, in turn, have had the potential of changing the environment and enhancing the disturbance effects by synergistic processes involving positive feedbacks; 10) the collapse of past civilisations under climate stress has been chiefly the result of inadequate management procedures and weaknesses in social organisation, which would be a warning for the present uncontrolled growth of human population, the consequent overexploitation of natural resources, and the continuous increase of greenhouse gas emissions; 11) the impact of fire as a decisive ecological agent has increased since the rise of humans, especially during the last millennia, but anthropic fires were not dominant over natural fires until the 19th century; 12) fire has been an essential element in the development and ecological dynamics of many ecosystems, and it has significantly affected the worldwide biome distribution; 13) climate–fire–human synergies that amplify the effects of climate, or fire alone, have been important in the shaping of modern landscapes. These general paleoecological observations and others that have emerged from case studies of particular problems can improve the preservation of biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Nature conservation requires the full consideration of palaeoecological knowledge in an ecological context, along with the synergistic cooperation of palaeoecologists with neoecologists, anthropologists, and conservation scientists.     

Diffusion of divalent cations in garnet: multi-couple experiments

We demonstrate the possibility of studying several diffusion couples in a single run, i.e. under almost similar P–T–t– conditions, allowing direct comparison of the diffusion rates in different diffusion couples. Thus the duration of experimental study and the risk of failure of expensive experimental equipment can be decreased considerably. The diffusion experiments were carried out in piston-cylinder apparatus. Gem-quality garnets of almandine, spessartine and grossular compositions together with inclusion-rich eclogitic garnets were embedded in a powder of natural pyrope and annealed together under dry conditions at P = 1.9–3.2 GPa and T = 1,070–1,400°C. Diffusion profiles were measured by electron microprobe and fitted numerically on the basis of multicomponent diffusion theory. The datasets derived from different diffusion couples yields parameters of the Arrhenius equation for Ca, Mg and Fe in natural eclogitic garnets and Mg, Mn and Fe in gem-quality garnets. We have also studied the effect of grain-boundary diffusion in the sintered pyrope matrix on interdiffusion on the basis of 2D modeling. Under conditions analogous to those of our experimental runs, we show that observed irregularities in some measured diffusion profiles (not applied for the diffusion modeling) can be directly related to the superposition of local grain-boundary diffusion on dominant volume diffusion.     

Discussion of “Wave setup and setdown generated by obliquely incident waves” by T.-W. Hsu et al., Coastal Engineering, 53, 865–877, 2006

In the recent paper by Tai-Wen Hsu, John R.-C. Hsu, Wen-Kai Weng, Swun-Kwang Wang, and Shan-Hwei Ou (Coastal Engineering, 53, 865–877, 2006), the authors derived theoretical formulations for calculating the wave setup and setdown induced by obliquely incident waves on a beach. The derivation of an expression for setdown contains errors which would lead to an imbalance in longshore momentum flux outside the surfzone. We correct their derivation and give results in terms of the radiation stress concept in a general case including an oblique wave incidence. We also point out that the correct form of wave setdown is important to describe the zero-net force in the momentum balance outside the surfzone.     

Deposition of trace substances via cloud interception on a coniferous forest at Kleiner Feldberg

A resistance model to calculate the deposition of cloud droplets on a coniferous forest and some improved parameterizations of the indispensable input parameters are described. The deposition model is adapted to the coniferous forest at the Kleiner Feldberg site and verified by the data of a drip water monitoring station below the forest canopy. The measurements of liqud water content, wind speed and trace substance compounds in cloud water of the Ground-based Cloud Experiment (GCE) at Kleiner Feldberg in 1990 are used to calculate the cloud water deposition fluxes and the deposition of trace substances via cloud water interception. The calculated deposition of trace substances via cloud water interceptions is three to six times higher than via rain during the experiment. On a long term data basis the yearly amount of cloud water deposition is 180 mm year^–1 at Kleiner Feldberg site (840 m a.s.l.) while the precipitation amount is 1030 mm year^–1. Due to higher trace substance concentrations in cloud water compared to rain the ionic deposition via cloud water interception and via precipitation were assessed to be of comparable magnitude.     

Failure Mode and Spatial Distribution of Damage in Rothbach Sandstone in the Brittle-ductile Transition

— To elucidate the spatial complexity of damage and evolution of localized failure in the transitional regime from brittle faulting to cataclastic ductile flow in a porous sandstone, we performed a series of triaxial compression experiments on Rothbach sandstone (20% porosity). Quantitative microstructural analysis and X-ray computed tomography (CT) imaging were conducted on deformed samples. Localized failure was observed in samples at effective pressures ranging from 5 MPa to 130 MPa. In the brittle faulting regime, dilating shear bands were observed. The CT images and stereological measurements reveal the geometric complexity and spatial heterogeneity of damage in the failed samples. In the transitional regime (at effective pressures between 45 MPa and 130 MPa), compacting shear bands at high angles and compaction bands perpendicular to the maximum compression direction were observed. The laboratory results suggest that these complex localized features can be pervasive in sandstone formations, not just limited to the very porous aeolian sandstone in which they were first documented. The microstructural observations are in qualitative agreement with theoretical predictions of bifurcation analyses, except for the occurrence of compaction bands in the sample deformed at effective pressure of 130 MPa. The bifurcation analysis with the constitutive model used in this paper is nonadequate to predict compaction band formation, may be due to the neglect of bedding anisotropy of the rock and multiple yield mechanisms in the constitutive model.     

Estimating nutrient budgets in tropical estuaries subject to episodic flows

Most Australian estuaries are subject to riverine discharge regimes that are highly episodic. This characteristic poses difficulties for estimating nutrient budgets of such systems based on sampling regimes that do not resolve the discharge variation and the changes in nutrient distributions that they cause. This paper presents a method for calculating nutrient budgets in estuaries having episodic hydrology. The method utilises a simple hydrodynamic transport model that is calibrated using measured salinities and which is used to describe the transport properties of the estuary as they respond to river discharge. Using this transport model, the temporal variation in nutrient concentrations within the estuary can be resolved between sampling surveys even when the discharge events are of short duration. An inverse method is then applied to calculate internal fluxes of nutrients from measurements obtained on successive sampling surveys. The approach is demonstrated through an application to the Fitzroy Estuary in Queensland, Australia.     

Evolution of oceanographic conditions off Baja California: 1997–1999

This paper examines the oceanic response off Baja California, Mexico, to the 1997–1998 El Niño and the transition to La Niña conditions. The data presented were gathered during seven cruises over a grid based on the CalCOFI station plan, from lines 100–130, out to station 80. T–S diagrams with data obtained during the peak phase of El Niño, demonstrate that warmer and saltier (spicier) than normal conditions prevailed in the upper 600 m over this region. Temperature and salinity anomalies calculated for CalCOFI line 120 revealed waters near the coast at 50 m depth to be up to 8.7 °C warmer and S=0.8 saltier than the climatology during October 1997. These large anomalies persisted through January 1998, with some slight diminution in the magnitudes near the surface. This study suggests that anomalously warm and salty waters were fed from a source of spicy water to the southwest, identified as Subtropical Surface Water (StSW), and that low-salinity Tropical surface waters (TSW) were blocked to the southeast in the vicinity of the tip of the Peninsula. Subsurface waters associated with the California undercurrent (CU), fed from the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP), were also warmer and saltier than normal, and indicate a significant expansion in volume of the CU, presumably a result of intensification of poleward flow at depth. We postulate that the well defined near-surface and deep poleward flows in the study area reflect anomalous large-scale cyclonic circulation affecting the flow in the southeastern region of the North Pacific subtropical gyre east of 125°W. Following the El Niño event, warm and salty upper waters retreated to latitudes south of Punta Eugenia. With the return to normal and cooler conditions, equatorward flow over the sampling grid predominated with an increased meandering and mesoscale activity. Transition to La Niña conditions would have been associated with re-establishment of normal anticyclonic flow in the southeastern quadrant of the Pacific subtropical gyre.