Tectonic core of a sedimentary drift: a potential ridge propagation feature beneath the Blake Outer Ridge

The Blake Outer Ridge is a 480–kilometer long linear sedimentary drift ridge striking perpendicular to the North American coastline. By modeling free-air gravity anomalies we tested for the presence of a crustal feature that may control the location and orientation of the Blake Outer Ridge. Most of our crustal density models that match observed gravity anomalies require an increase in oceanic crustal thickness of 1–3 km on the southwest side of the Blake Outer Ridge relative to the northeast side. Most of these models also require 1–4 km of crustal thinning in zone 20–30 km southwest of the crest of the Blake Outer Ridge. Although these features are consistent with the structure of oceanic fracture zones, the Blake Outer Ridge is not parallel to adjacent known fracture zones. Magnetic anomalies suggest that the ocean crust beneath this feature formed during a period of mid-ocean ridge reorganization, and that the Blake Outer Ridge may be built upon the bathymetric expression of an oblique extensional feature associated with ridge propagation. It is likely that the orientation of this trough acted as a catalyst for sediment deposition with the start of the Western Boundary Undercurrent in the mid-Oligocene.     

Transformation of black-sea waters in the Sea of Marmara

The analysis is performed on the basis of comparison of the hydrological characteristics of prestrait regions of the Sea of Marmara. It is shown that, in summer, the Black-Sea waters are weakly mixed with the Mediterranean waters and the levels of salinity in the prestrait regions differ by 0.6–0.9‰. In winter, the indicated difference increases and the level of salinity near the entrance of Dardanelles reaches 29‰ and exceeds the level observed near the entrance of Bosporus by 5.5‰. In the analyzed regions, we observe local temperature maxima and minima near the interface of two water masses. This is explained by the presence of strong seasonal variations of temperature for the Black-Sea waters and their absence for the Mediterranean waters. The physical mechanisms responsible for the seasonal variations of the intensity of transformations of the Black-Sea waters are discussed. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 49–55, March–April, 2007.     

Dynamics of climate extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century

Changes in climatic parameters and in temperature and precipitation extremes in northern Eurasia in the late 20th century are analyzed. A spatial distribution of temperature and precipitation anomalies and of a set of indices of climate extremes is presented. Changes in climate extremes show a tendency toward a milder climate, mainly in winter. At the same time, the frost-free period has substantially decreased in the eastern, northern, and central parts of European Russia. In some regions during summer, there is an increase in the frequency of extreme events such as heavy rains, droughts, and sharp cooling. It is shown that the geographic pattern of present-day climate anomalies is linked to variations in the large-scale atmospheric circulation. The main mechanism of the current warming in northern Eurasia is a winter intensification of zonal flow linked to the increased frequency of positive anomalies of the North Atlantic Oscillation index.     

How are large western hemisphere warm pools formed?

During the boreal summer the Western Hemisphere warm pool (WHWP) stretches from the eastern North Pacific to the tropical North Atlantic and is a key feature of the climate of the Americas and Africa. In the summers following nine El Niño events during 1950–2000, there have been five instances of extraordinarily large warm pools averaging about twice the climatological annual size. These large warm pools have induced a strengthened divergent circulation aloft and have been associated with rainfall anomalies throughout the western hemisphere tropics and subtropics and with more frequent hurricanes. However, following four other El Niño events large warm pools did not develop, such that the mere existence of El Niño during the boreal winter does not provide the basis for predicting an anomalously large warm pool the following summer.In this paper, we find consistency with the hypothesis that large warm pools result from an anomalous divergent circulation forced by sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Pacific, the so-called atmospheric bridge. We also find significant explanations for why large warm pools do not always develop. If the El Niño event ends early in the eastern Pacific, the Pacific warm anomaly lacks the persistence needed to force the atmospheric bridge and the Atlantic portion of the warm pool remains normal. If SST anomalies in the eastern Pacific do not last much beyond February of the following year, then the eastern North Pacific portion of the warm pool remains normal. The overall strength of the Pacific El Niño does not appear to be a critical factor. We also find that when conditions favor a developing atmospheric bridge and the winter atmosphere over the North Atlantic conforms to a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern (as in 1957–58 and 1968–69), the forcing is reinforced and the warm pool is stronger. On the other hand, if a positive NAO pattern develops the warm pool may remain normal even if other circumstances favor the atmospheric bridge, as in 1991–92. Finally, we could find little evidence that interactions internal to the tropical Atlantic are likely to mitigate for or against the formation of the largest warm pools, although they may affect smaller warm pool fluctuations or the warm pool persistence.     

The dimensions of sand ripples in full-scale oscillatory flows

New large-scale experiments have been carried out in two oscillatory flow tunnels to study ripple regime sand suspension and net sand transport processes in full-scale oscillatory flows. The paper focuses on ripple dimensions and the new data are combined with existing data to make a large dataset of ripple heights and lengths for flows with field-scale amplitudes and periods. A feature of the new experiments is a focus on the effect of flow irregularity. The combined dataset is analysed to examine the range of hydraulic conditions under which oscillatory flow ripples occur, to examine the effects of flow irregularity and ripple three-dimensionality on ripple dimensions and to test and improve existing methods for predicting ripple dimensions.The following are the main conclusions. (1) The highest velocities in a flow time-series play an important role in determining the type of bedform occurring in oscillatory flow. Bedform regime is well characterised by mobility number based on maximum velocity in the case of regular flow and based on the mean of the highest one tenth peak velocities in the case of irregular flow. (2) For field-scale flows, sand size is the primary factor determining whether equilibrium ripples will be 2D or 3D. 2D ripples occur when the sand D₅₀ ≥ 0.30 mm and 3D ripples occur when D₅₀ ≤ 0.22 mm (except when the flow orbital diameter is low). (3) Ripple type (2D or 3D) is the same for regular and irregular flows and ripple dimensions produced by equivalent regular and irregular flows follow a similar functional dependence on mobility number, with mobility number based on maximum velocity in the case of regular flow and based on the mean of the highest one tenth velocities in the case of irregular flow. For much of the ripple regime, ripple dimensions have weak dependency on mobility number and ripple dimensions are similar for regular and irregular flows with the same flow orbital amplitude. However, differences in ripples produced by equivalent regular and irregular flows become significant at the high mobility end of the ripple regime. (4) Ripple dimensions predicted using the Wiberg and Harris formulae are in poor agreement with measured ripple dimensions from the large-scale experiments. Predictions based on the Mogridge et al. and the Nielsen formulae show better overall agreement with the data but also show systematic differences in cases of 3D ripples and ripples generated by irregular flows. (5) Based on the combined large-scale data, modifications to the Nielsen ripple dimension equations are proposed for the heights and lengths of 2D ripples. The same equations apply to regular and irregular flows, but with mobility number appropriately defined. 3D ripples are generally smaller than 2D ripples and estimates of 3D ripple height and length may be obtained by applying multipliers of 0.55 and 0.73 respectively to the 2D formulae. The proposed modified Nielsen formulae provide an improved fit to the large-scale data, accounting for flow irregularity and ripple three-dimensionality.     

Parameter sensitivity of three Kalman filter schemes for assimilation of water levels in shelf sea models

In applications of data assimilation algorithms, a number of poorly known assimilation parameters usually need to be specified. Hence, the documented success of data assimilation methodologies must rely on a moderate sensitivity to these parameters. This contribution presents a parameter sensitivity study of three well known Kalman filter approaches for the assimilation of water levels in a three dimensional hydrodynamic modelling system. The filters considered are the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), the reduced rank square root Kalman filter (RRSQRT) and the steady Kalman filter. A sensitivity analysis of key parameters in the schemes is undertaken for a setup in an idealised bay. The sensitivity of the resulting root mean square error (RMSE) is shown to be low to moderate. Hence the schemes are robust within an acceptable range and their application even with misspecified parameters is to be encouraged in this perspective. However, the predicted uncertainty of the assimilation results are sensitive to the parameters and hence must be applied with care. The sensitivity study further demonstrates the effectiveness of the steady Kalman filter in the given system as well as the great impact of assimilating even very few measurements.     

Surface circulation of the Levantine Basin: Comparison of model results with observations

The eastern Mediterranean (Levantine Basin) hydrography and circulation are investigated by comparing the results of a high-resolution primitive equation model with observations. After a 10-year integration, the model is able to reproduce the major water masses and the circulation patterns of the eastern Mediterranean. Comparisons with the POEM hydrographical observations show good agreement. The vertical distribution of the water masses matches that of the observations quite well in terms of monthly mean. The model surface circulation is in agreement with circulation schemes derived from recent observations. Some well-known mesoscale features of the upper thermocline circulation are also realistically reproduced. In agreement with satellite observations, the model shows that high-energy mesoscale eddies dominate the upper thermocline circulation in the southern and the central parts of the Levantine Basin. Most of the Atlantic Water follows the north African coast and forms a strong coastal jet near the Libyan coast rather than forming the Mid-Mediterranean Jet described by several authors. The sub-basin circulation shows a strong seasonal signal. A strong and stable current flows along the isobaths in winter, becoming weaker and with more meanders in summer. The mesoscale eddies throughout the whole basin are more energetic in summer than in winter.     

Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

Seasonal dynamics in pelagic fish abundance in a Baltic Sea coastal area

The spring-spawning Baltic Sea herring spawn in coastal areas that also serve as nursery areas for the young fish during their first summer. In a bay known as a herring spawning and nursery area, the pelagic fish abundance was quantified using hydroacoustics every second week from late spring to autumn in 2000 and 2001. A dense system of survey transects allowed determination of the acoustic index (the nautical area scattering coefficient) for fish abundance with high precision. The variation, expressed as the geostatistical coefficient of variation, was on average 5% both years and ranged from 3–11% (2000) and 3–8% (2001). Through the hydroacoustic data intra-annual dynamics in acoustic fish abundance, densities and size composition could be followed, which showed similar trends in both years. In spring and early summer acoustic fish densities were low, followed by a drastic, 20-fold increase in late summer. Hydroacoustic data and biological samples suggest that the increase was caused mainly by the recruitment of young-of-the-year herring to the acoustically assessable pelagic fish community. This age class is commonly not well represented in catches when using traditional sampling gears such as gill nets and trawls, and hydroacoustics may help to improve quantitative estimates of small juvenile fish in order to increase the understanding of biological processes in coastal nursery areas.